SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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JB is sorta right, PSU echoed this in the MA forum that even if you looked at the CIPS analogs, many show the 500 setup from like Chicago to the Delmarva being one where we had storms that were so far west the coast changed over. Its likely just a case here thats an extremely rare circumstance where a couple of things being slightly off are leading to an atypical result given the setup. Or the NAM is gonna pull another January 2016 on us...
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I definitely lean more towards a total shutout here now. obviously we’re not seeing that on any ensembles or models yet but at this stage given the changes we’ve seen I suspect that once we get inside about 84 or 90 we’ll probably see this at a high risk of flattening out even further. I just warned some people online I said you might even have to be worried in DC, which I was telling people about here yesterday
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
As of 4pm it was LGA 0.3 JFK and EWR 0.4 NYC T -
OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Should be between 0.5-1.0, I'd say its like 0.4 so far -
Yeah the 18Z ICON was like a Nemo redux, saved by a late capture but realistically that is a worse trend from the prior run
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It was east
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I think its a miss for DC if it misses the rest of the coast, orientation and everything to me argues if its not an across the board big city hit its more or less a miss outside of the Delmarva/SE NJ/Cape and Islands
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Which I don't think is realistic, I think the window for this to hit DCA/BWI and miss everyone else is a narrow one. I suspect this hits all the big cities or none. Could see it where the Cape/Islands/SE NJ and maybe Delmarva are hit but not a case where the former occurs.
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Be wary of those 06 or 18z EPS jumps. Seen it before in recent couple of years and then the ensuing main hour run reverts back to what the tendency had been prior. At least the AI made a jump which is unusual from what I've seen from that model so far
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It did not do too well with this last event, it was way south til the final day. I've not followed it much beyond 96, its been good inside of that but not so much beyond
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Saturday schedule, even for a holiday weekend such as this tends to be light. Might be a bit heavier than most winter Saturdays but that will allow them deice and move aircraft easier than say a Thursday or Sunday afternoon. Also runway conditions will be good with no risk of poor braking or treatment delays
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Mid level temps not great as WAA is moving in and not a whole lot of fgen signals at all. It’s likely gonna be light rates with 8:1 ratios. I wouldn’t be shocked if like .30 liquid falls but only 1.5 is measured due to time of day etc.
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It’ll come down to rates. NYC should have the easiest time accumulating since it’s not a pavement jungle like the airports are. Temps shouldn’t get too high due to thick overcast, maybe 34-36 but the rates could be fairly poor where you’ll end up more 7-8:1
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At the very least we probably do not have to watch DC/VA get pounded this time, the setup overall is not really conducive for that to happen. Certainly Cape May/Delmarva the MA Islands could get hit while everyone misses but this one is more of a classic we all get hit in the major metros or we all miss
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Basically as long as we do not totally lose the CMC/Euro/GEPS/EPS in the next 48 hours I'd feel very good.
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I'm not sure thats a real possibility though, this is either a big hit or a miss. I don't really see a scenario here where its like a 2-4 inch storm
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12-13 somewhat
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This is still an ugly setup to me but it won't take major changes from what the Euro shows to be a decent event initially down to the coast.
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95/96 I think was fairly snowless across the southern US. Oklahoma to SC got very little snow despite how active that winter was. 93-94 was also the least snowiest winter ever in MCI and ICT I believe so you get weird anomalies all over even in good years
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Doesn’t lack of sea ice in late summer tend to cause more blocking in winter or at least it’s believed to more often than not?
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It may also have something to do with the fact a storm closely preceded it too. Hard to say if the system yesterday never existed if the SE doesn’t get as jacked and this next system doesn’t go as far as north
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I’m still suspicious of snow happening in that setup near the coast. Winds from the south there would make that really difficult
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18Z Euro now has .20 at JFK
