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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    This will end up as one storm, more like the 06Z AI shows. You might see some type of real wimpy weak front running wave as the AI also shows over NC/VA the day before, but this long drawn out slow multi wave idea I don't think happens
  2. SnowGoose69
    I think in the end it ends up similar to tomorrow AM's storm. There are some aspects of the storm tomorrow I like better than I do this one, wave as a whole is weaker so mid-level WAA might not be as strong so it could surprise and stay snow longer. This one has the look of one that might be best to the north right now.
  3. SnowGoose69
    I also think it ends up being one storm, not sure I believe the idea of a whole bunch of different waves riding the boundary based on how things have gone this winter.
  4. SnowGoose69
    Even the GFS shows signs of snow breaking out over NJ/PA earlier at night as the HRRR/NAM show. Will have to watch this one closely for starting as early as 06-07z.
  5. SnowGoose69
    Closest setup I can find to this event, 2/21/05. 3-5 fell most places. High was in a slightly better spot, albeit still not great. The SFC low re-developed though and we got a NE flow after being south. This time I think we'd get more sleet. Shows you how a pretty close setup acts differently with small changes. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2005/us0221.php
  6. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I'd definitely not use its thermals but the idea its generating so much overrunning precip relative to the Euro is good
  7. SnowGoose69
    The 18Z HRRR sure doubling down on its idea, no notable move towards the Euro. We'll see if the NAM begins to move towards it next few cycles
  8. SnowGoose69
    The Op runs definitely have more SE ridging than the ensemble average which tells me there probably are alot of ensemble members D12-16 that are not nearly as troffy or suppressed in the east as the GEFS/EPS average is
  9. SnowGoose69
    Its not tremendously different on thermals, it simply has no QPF til like 13Z
  10. SnowGoose69
    SE flow is just weak, it does not really crank til the system is already producing precip, and near shore water temps are now fairly cold. I am not sure even down here if anyone except Long Island and the south shore of NYC ever goes above 32.
  11. SnowGoose69
    I agree with Walt on that 12th-14th storm, there is definitely a risk of suppression though I think suppression is the wrong word. As I said yesterday, its more "failed phasing" or disjointed setup than it really would be suppresison
  12. SnowGoose69
    Wide range of risk on this one, anything from about the same as the 2/6 event to significantly snowier is possible.
  13. SnowGoose69
    Its very possible places from N Queens on W-NW never go to rain on this event, while there is ESE flow, its light, the event is very fast moving and short duration and there may be too much wet bulbing initially to push temps over 32 til the precip is almost over. LGA is roughly 32/21 at the start, if they fall to 28 I really doubt an 8-10kts wind from 090-110 blowing across a large area of sleet/snow on the ground is going to get them over freezing before the event exits. I still think there is mostly sleet though after maybe 2 hours of snow at the start.
  14. SnowGoose69
    06/18z Euro runs the last few years have tended to do some strange stuff. Should not be happening with today's model ingests but I've seen it more than enough times to know its a tendency at this point
  15. SnowGoose69
    The Euro seems out to lunch on this one, I am still wary of totally discounting it, maybe the 06z run was a blip but its evolution overall is just different than any other model right now.
  16. SnowGoose69
    The NAM is almost always the slowest model when it comes to start times, the fact its consistently been the earliest for the last 2 days tells me it might be right
  17. SnowGoose69
    I'm not worried too much about suppression as I am maybe storms not being able to amp up quite as much if the SER is flatter than that Op run shows
  18. SnowGoose69
    The GFS still could be overdoing the presence of the SER so I am not sold post 2/13-2/14 that storm tracks are going to be that far north.
  19. SnowGoose69
    The AI which has probably performed best on start time in many of these precip events has 07-08z for NYC. Probably means the UKMET/GFS/Euro might be too slow right now and NAM slightly too fast. It also has a slight wedging signature showing up. I think NE NJ/N parts of NYC have to be wary of this event staying frozen for most of it. We'll see what the NAM shows as it gets closer. As of today it shows most places turning SE on winds
  20. SnowGoose69
    Definitely need some sort of mesoscale help on this one to get more than a quick shot of snow, high positioning just not great though some higher res models show it could try to wedge itself in for a bit. Its why I am nervous about LGA/EWR on north holding onto ZR or PL longer before going to all rain but the event that follows this one looks more promising though I still think its the 10th and beyond when any all snow event is likely.
  21. SnowGoose69
    GEFS more or less moving that way, still has a ton of members going into nothing or even back into 2-3 but more today seem to be moving towards 8-1 than previous days
  22. SnowGoose69
    Some signs the ensembles may be bailing on the SSW. IMO I have no issues with that, I think the pattern is otherwise going to be favorable anyway, give me a good few weeks with chances for snow and don't prolong the cold til like 4/15 which is a risk if we get a SSW.
  23. SnowGoose69
    JFK east went over to rain. LGA west I’m not sure they ever did. Maybe for an hour or so they got some light rain but then it went back below freezing. Most areas simply just dry slotted
  24. SnowGoose69
    It’s always smart to never go much over 3-5 in any snow to rain event here. While to can exceed that it takes an extreme circumstance such as the 93 blizzard or very intense banding. The November 2018 and 93 blizzard are only two snow to rain events I recall that were 6 or more. Some came close like January 99 December 03 January 91 but all were about 5-5.5
  25. SnowGoose69
    HUH? LGA 030000 METAR 022351Z 04007KT 6SM -RASN OVC030 M02/M04 A3033 RMK AO2 RAB50SNB48 SLP270 P0000 60000 T1017107211011 21028 56026
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