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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I think the areas in the wedge core like GA and SC will get mainly sleet, but those outside of it like N AL/N MS AR/TX would likely be FZRA. They all could use a CMC or UKIE solution which spares many areas down there from a FZRA event but to me that hard early phase is not likely.
  2. SnowGoose69
    Euro/AI solution makes more sense as to how it evolves. I still like flatter down in the Deep South with more a late evolution to near the CMC idea off the MA coast
  3. SnowGoose69
    The CMC is phasing/turning the corner in a climatologically very rare location. I have seen some systems do that but they are often monster deep Miller A lows. I think in the end that idea would result in a phase either earlier and more west or more likely east near the SC/GA coast or GA coastline
  4. SnowGoose69
    Its phasing the storm at an unusual point climatologically. Chances are it will either phase and turn the corner quite a bit west of that or more down towards the coast. No question verbatim its solution is unlikely to the T, you'd need to have a much more dynamic phase or deep low.
  5. SnowGoose69
    Soundings show it may be more sleet. There's a sub freezing layer from 875mb and below which often is deep enough
  6. SnowGoose69
    The Op would be IMO a bit suppressed but what this system could do too is turn the corner late. So we may see a move in the next 2-3 days towards the system being further south back in the WRN TN Valley/Deep South/Plains but still making the move more up the coast. Just later on than the CMC shows for example
  7. SnowGoose69
    Correct. Especially in the wedge. This rule is not as useful in the SRN plains/TN Valley/Oh Valley as much but often times in the GA/SC/NC wedge sleet ends up more dominant than you expec
  8. SnowGoose69
    Be careful with the EUROAI post 120, from about there inside its been good. Beyond that less so. I still like an idea as of now slightly north of the Op Euro idea.
  9. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET having rain in NE GA in that setup is funny
  10. SnowGoose69
    Its still too far out but right now something between the UKMET and CMC would be my guess. I'd rather be here than Boston or Albany right now, thats for sure. I think the CMC may overall be a bit north of what eventually happens
  11. SnowGoose69
    The 18Z Euro over SE AR and N MS its like 1 inch of freezing rain in 6 hours
  12. SnowGoose69
    As SE Alabama clears on satellite you can see it melts fairly fast
  13. SnowGoose69
    Its quite strange seeing those areas get snow in La Nina winters...its almost always limited to just El Nino years. ATL for example saw no measurable snow in 95-96
  14. SnowGoose69
    RhodyRick was my favorite poster on Eastern, he would just troll saying every storm would be rain
  15. SnowGoose69
    All models now basically showing lite versions of 12/2003 and 1/2011. We need to hope round 1 does as well as it did in both those storms. Hint...it won't
  16. SnowGoose69
    Don’t underrate the impact this accumulation may have on tomorrow. At least in areas that got snow today. It could definitely keep things 1-2 degrees cooler overnight which can be a factor tomorrow in a setup like this
  17. SnowGoose69
    Given they probably will measure at 1pm a half inch or slightly over.
  18. SnowGoose69
    Its accumulating on the grass now in Central Park
  19. SnowGoose69
    Still looks concerning that W Canada may get wiped out again by the EPO shift though I think its just a brief one but despite the end of ensembles showing a +PNA look again its pretty mild since Canada gets torched the last few days of the month by that transitional period. Could be 2/5 or 2/7 before we see things be cold enough and I am just not sure how much longer thereafter we can hold this pattern. Its logically going to go Nina February at some stage. I felt by 2/10 but maybe its later.
  20. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, no high to the north as I said. I don't really love this setup but I do think that the air mass might be just cold enough that we get accumulation. I'd just go lower than snow maps though. I don't think anyone is seeing 5 or 6 inches.
  21. SnowGoose69
    GFS is likely too amped with the storm idea. I am more worried about suppression problems overall than being too far north
  22. SnowGoose69
    By far the Euro idea for today is working out the best right now. Most of the mesos were just way too far west with this snow. The RGEM was fairly good too.
  23. SnowGoose69
    Not nearly the same setup but reminded me of this one below. 2/8/97. I was watching Mark Messier blow the Islanders up in an afternoon game. Was like 32-34 all day. NYC got around 3 inches in the end but it was basically a clipped coastal type setup. Nowhere near the same type of storm as this though. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1997/us0209.php
  24. SnowGoose69
    Yeah makes no sense at all for the west to be torching like this in this type of winter. But as we have said in here we've seen the east torch in El Nino setups recently in oddball configurations. Dec 2015 was one, that was likely more due to the MJO being record strength in phase 5 or 6 though.
  25. SnowGoose69
    It looks like what happens on the ensembles today is you briefly get a +EPO but it immediately tries to return back to a +PNA pattern again, you'd torch Canada so would take a week or so for it to get colder again
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