SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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The HRRR has something going on. For example, its showing sleet in places like Detroit then you check the sounding and its -2C at the warmest anywhere
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To be honest I forecast for the entire eastern US and both have been bad this winter overall. The Euro has more or less owned the show this year inside 36 hours.
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The NAM idea made more sense last storm because it was truly much more disorganized. It barely had an organized precip shield til it was almost overhead. This system is a bit faster to get going. I also don’t think 4-6 is realistic at all for NYC, I would only go 2-4 right now and closer to 2 than 4
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Likely have to wait til this first storm moves out, again, if this one tomorrow and Sunday is more south and we see mainly snow even down close to the city it probably increases the risk this event on Tuesday ends up south. I've sort of been leaning towards this being an NYC south event for a few days.
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Even the UKMET came slightly south from 12z so it likely comes south as well, at this range though it means little, if it did this tomorrow night I think its more of an issue, there's a big difference in an across the board swing at 80-90 hours than 120
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Funny how the HRRR at 48 is a straight up torch and way north this time, meanwhile it was way south and an ice box with today's event. NAM looks close to the Euro/GFS overall
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The Euro/AI are probably less impressive on the 11th event somewhat because they're flatter with the event that occurs before it on Sunday. Its not the whole story but I think its a big part of why. I still lean towards Sunday being more GFSish though I am concerned about the AI solution being where its at, its honestly not botched an event inside 72 yet this winter
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The Tuesday one largely depends on what Sunday does, you can even see that on the Euro/AI to a degree, they're noticeably flatter with Tuesday since they're farthest south Sunday.
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I think LGA/JFK stayed all snow, JFK may have had PL mixed in at times, it was anticipated we'd change to rain and we never did but the March sun angle and marginal temps led to tons of melting and compacting. I measured 7 at the time in Astoria and LGA reported close to that but if that event was 4-5 weeks earlier we'd have had a foot
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I noticed today many records being broken in the SE US were from 94, of course back then the SE Ridge was overpowered fast and most of those areas finished the month barely above normal in the end, they'll be way way above this time in a totally different climate, even if the final 8 days average below
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I think they're hedging in NYC/LI because the Euro/NAM but IMO the Euro/NAM have always had issues with south biases on SWFE type storms forever, its not as bad as it once was with the NAM, the Euro has gotten worse though with this last event it oddly enough was a bit north til the final 24-36 hours. I'd have left NYC out for now.
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There's a ton of notable events in the analogs but to me none of them resemble this. The problem with CIPS is it tends to grab by region so the pattern overall may not be close. 3/19/92 has some similarities but the pattern was may more favorable in Canada that kept that storm more south. To me 12/19/08 is actually the closest match to this storm. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us1219.php https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2025020612&map=thbCOOP72
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I think its more the concern that 6 inches is a possibility, albeit a low one. That said, to me a watch was more warranted on the event 2 weeks ago at this range than it is here.
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That could ultimately end up missing us to the south. I’ve never loved the prospects of that event. I felt until models came to a one storm idea vs multiple waves we’d have no real range of where it was going.
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Main issue I see Saturday is once again sort of late developing as it approaches so we’ll have to see if we struggle with rates ahead of the changeover but overall it’s a more organized system than this one and the air mass is better. I’d still say metro is mostly 3-4 inches or less on that as of now though
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Even the NAM didn’t have JFK raining at 12Z. The main issue here as some posted yesterday was steady precip came in too late. You needed rates of like .05 an hour by 08-09Z or so and you’d have had a shot at maybe 2 inches even in areas around the city but it wasn’t til almost 11z in the end.
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The CMC storm cutting into PA probably is never going to happen. I'd be more worried about misses south late next week than being too far NW.
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18Z Euro no major change, it may have a bit more warm nose progressing in slightly faster but its within 20 miles of its 12Z track on everything
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Anything from 3-5 to 1 is on the table right now for the immediate metro. I don't really buy the markedly colder ensemble members right now as a track that gives us 6 plus from an event like this is rare.
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All comes down to can it begin snowing by like 08-09z. If it can get in that early I think 2-3 is very possible even in NYC but if its closer to 10-11z probably more like 1 inch. Could be a 2 hour period of pellets and still not sure what type of changeover really happens to rain outside of LI or south Queens and Brooklyn and Staten Island
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Chances are the boundary won’t sit there that long or there won’t be as much activity riding along it as the Euro shows.
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I think there could be some surprises with this one, especially NE NJ/L HV area...usually in these events there is a region that is near the base of the high axis that really overperforms and sometimes does better than areas that end up staying mostly snow like say BOS/ORH in this case who have deeper cold air in place. It typically is a combination of them sitting near the changeover line for a sustained period/not being as dry so virga is not as much of an issue and also frontogenesis. Does not happen in all SWFEs but it seems to be often enough I always watch that area near the wedge axis at the base or back side of the high for it.
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Probably explains why to be honest the GEFS/EPS pattern just don't look a whole lot like phase 8 beyond D10, the wave is too weak, although the 12Z GFS Op run post 240 does look more phase 8ish on the pattern
