SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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NYC will have like 9-10 by the end of tonight even if it’s mostly sleet. They’ll probably still get close to 15-20 in the end
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I don’t love the pattern right now after 2/20, it has the look of cold and dry on alot of ensemble members. I don’t necessarily see suppression just nothing on some of the members patterns shown
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The HRRR on that run is just too late/weak with the precip shield more than anything. It has the changeover still fairly late relative to the NAM
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That was really the problem. That shouldn’t happen this time which is why even if it sleet there is going to be markedly more frozen precip than last event
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They only have a small chance in the grids from 22-00z which seems about right. This will start between 00-0030z
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In an event like this with massive mid level WAA I never really look at thickness. I typically only do it for all snow type events where its marginal temps and then I use 1000-850 which until recent years practically no online websites even had anyway, you basically needed to be an NWS employee and have AWIPS til about 10-15 years ago to view it. It usually works way better in a marginal temp event than 1000-500. I think in the January 2008 storm the 1000-850 argued the area would see no snow at all. I recall a MET posting that on the old forum
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I'm becoming increasingly confident LI/S parts of the metro will see some snow with the Tuesday event, not likely over 3-4 inches but more confident a total miss won't happen. North areas I think could see nothing. Thursday IMO is rain for the coastal areas and maybe ice inland, Tuesday COULD have some impact on Thursday but probably not a ton because we get a temporary fail of the EPO and the trof out west which is going to allow that thing to dig for China and cut regardless.
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Thursday also gets impacted by what Monday/Tuesday does. Not a ton, because changes with the EPO ridge in NW Canada likely allows so much digging to happen in the Rockies/Plains I think even if Mon/Tues does everything possible to flatten or push things more S that Thursday is going pretty far north anyhow, but for up here and SNE it can probably make a marked difference for Thursday, in the MA likely no.
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We'd get something on Thursday or Wednesday probably but again it would be a slop type event. Any all snow event after Tuesday's chance would be the following week into the end of the month when the pattern overall looks more classic.
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00z ICON barely even hits DC lol. When I said I thought this would miss south or COULD a few days ago I meant like maybe TTN-BWI, not Richmond
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It needs to be an approaching system from the south. Overrunning events that come from the SW or W here rarely are big. 2/8/94 was due to flukey mesoscale banding but generally its the southern approachers with a high up over Maine that are the biggest like November 2018. They tend to be rare though, in the last 30 plus years I can only remember 6-7 events that did that.
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It bombs once in a great while on storms like this. I recall using it a few winters back and basically going mostly sleet and we got like 5 inches of snow before it flipped over. Every now and then it’s totally out to lunch on the warm push. We can hope it’s doing that here
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The Euro is very late on the precip arrival too but is way too cold aloft so it has snow til like 05-06Z in NYC. I just don’t see that happening. I issued a forecast of 1.5 inches of snow followed by a half inch to an inch of sleet
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Delta is least likely to cancel flights but not sure you can rebook with another airline. Some carriers have agreements with others, I want to say JBU has no rebook agreements with anyone nor does SWA
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12/19/08 continues to be a remarkably close analog to this storm. There was a transfer from a primary, LGA saw 4, JFK 2, HPN-BDR 6-7. This event does not have the high in as ideal a spot to the north which is why I'd take amounts down due to more sleet.
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Euro even more south now. I have next to no confidence still since we lack a -NAO and have a SE ridge here. The pattern otherwise argues this should be somewhat squashed and compacted but the 18Z Euro shows what could happen and I have seen happen before in these setups. Interior areas like E PA and SE NY get missed but as the surface low gets more east off the Delmarva it can ride close enough for the coastal areas to see snow. This event from 2/1985 is a similar match, parts of LI saw 6 inches. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0205.php https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0206.php
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It was last storm too and was right but not sure that was dumb luck more than anything. as some said, the extensive convection that formed in the SRN Oh Valley could have been why the QPf ended up so lousy here
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Its just nonsensical across the board, slow transfer yet somehow it only pushes the mid-level WAA into like SE NY And CT late, it keeps CNJ and NYC all snow which could not possibly happen if the whole transfer was that late.
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HRRR still seems too cold aloft much like the last event, its even got snow down to like Trenton, the slow evolution was shown on the Euro too
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The problem is Tuesday is influenced by tomorrow's event somewhat and most definitely next Friday is influenced by Tuesday. I still think Tuesday is a south coast event on southward, but I don't feel its gonna be lost completely to PHL-DCA like last month's system.
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The Euro shows what I posted earlier, the warm nose punches harder there than it even does for NYC itself, I doubt NYC is +SN at 06Z still as the Euro shows but my guess is there is going to be some location between NE NJ and SW CT tomorrow night where the warm nose stalls for a good 2 hours and there will be heavy snow just N-NE of that.
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Honestly the 3km NAM does not get sleet that far north really, it more or less HPN/BDR snow all event. It does get sleet further north west because they are under the WAA influence before the transfer, we could see a case here where somewhere like Orient Point does better than say Morristown
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Yeah, in order to get over 2 places like EWR need the period from 23-02Z to be pretty snowy, if its very light they'll end up primarily sleet from 03-07z when the best precip rates are. Unlike last storm due to the transfer the winds will likely back to 030-050, we could see LGA/EWR possibly get to 33-34 for a time and then drop back to 30-32.
