SnowGoose69

I do not think its flipping by then...that said I am not highly confident right now outside of the belief that probably 2/1-2/7 or so is the worst stretch...I am not sure about there being a -PNA like ensembles sorta show since the ensemble charts show it being positive...it could just be a beatdown of the ridge due to the jet which is being displayed as a -PNA look on the anomaly height charts.

Well NYC is still alive to re break last winters record, don’t think it’ll happen though

The GEPS was semi trying the same late and the GEFS at 15-16 was maybe showing higher heights in AK/NWT somewhat but you’d think it’s 2/10 at least before that translates to anything

The GEFS seems to truly have no idea whats gonna happen at the moment, its current run is basically a 180 of the previous 3-4 runs past 300 hours and even those were bad patterns.

Yeah, its all cumulative....in general if you have a near or below normal January which most places have had or will through 1/22, even if you go +5 for 15-20 days you won't see the degree of blooming you saw last year because January was so much milder than it has been in 2024 and blooming as well as fall color change on trees has a bit of an additive effect on what happened in the previous couple of months vs what is currently happening. Also due to lack of a SER this pattern while above normal won't produce temps like you saw in 2018-2019-2023

Yeah I believe 8-10 inches through this stage for them is close to that though for BWI its likely still below

03-04 86-87 ithink are a couple of other years as well, maybe even 85-86

It’s probably more the EPS is focusing on the whole Pac Jet but reality is by D16 on most of the three ensembles is well past when that issue peaks, it more or less peaks in the next 7 days

Just realized DCA BWI PHL will have more snow on the season than even BOS has by the end of today, thats crazy

To a degree that’s what’s happening but unlike 2/2010 for example HPN/SWF/DXR are snowing, this is the usual case of that dry nose pushing through the metro from the NE so they can take 1-2 hours longer to saturate between like 3-8K than areas west or even due north

Which is sort of odd because it’s MJO projection is markedly worse overall than the EPS is so it’s somewhat strange that on the 00Z ensemble it shows a better setup

I think those are possible in SNE. I just feel the worst period might be 2/3-2/10 or so as far as most mild

Yeah at least the GEFS seems like it might be about to improve things in the E Pac up through Alaska at the end, the EPS you’d be 10-15 more days probably til you could reset what it shows at 360

The Op GFS was classic 97-98 after like 180 hours...not a terrible pattern but just simply too warm...the SE US would probably average near to slightly below in that pattern but up here would be 3-5 above

TBH I think the torchiest/worst pattern we get might happen between about 2/3-2/9 or so....its still far off but that has the look of worst maybe happening before it reshuffles..the next 12 days may be above normal but there may be chances for something

I still think the IVT will probably perform better than a ton of models show but those amounts north of TTN are nuts...some type of bizarre mesoscale shenanigans would have to unfold for that to transpire

Its always too dry...its probably realistic outside of C-SNJ but I expect there's plenty of 4-6 inch amounts there

PSU in the MA forum has said he's noticed when the wave moves fast it has less impact...might be something to that

I recall one instance where that happened...in last 10 years went from like over CNTRL-LI back to Westchester on all models at 24-36 hours out and ended up in like Long Beach NJ

Dry air is not a huge concern tomorrow in my mind...flow is W-SW through most of the column til tomorrow AM...the problem simply is the trof/system tracking most likely too far south but it would not shock me at all if many stations in the metro have more snow from this than they did the last event, albeit not by a ton but certainly could exceed it by 0.5-1 across the board...2.7 at NYC would not exactly shock me at all

Yeah the only place that will be cool is the SE where even in that pattern they'd see their coldest February in like 8 years since without the SER they won't see days of 75-80

The tendency had been since November EPS too weak/GEFS too strong, both too slow but last 2 weeks EPS strength actually was closer to reality and the GEFS was too strong...now both have grossly changed their forecast the last 4 days so who knows now

I agree with that, maybe a tad too high in the 3-4 zone up north but the 4-6 is legit given the IVT setup....if that happens its likely areas in there see more than what many models are spitting out in C-SNJ

It certainly could, for the majority of winters it generally is a non-factor...it just so happens its been unusually active the last 4-5 years

You definitely do not want the GEFS idea today of it re-emerging in 3 to be correct...its better for it to just go totally dormant and do nothing