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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    .25 liquid last two hours, 1.7 snow so it’s under 10:1 by quite a bit so far
  2. SnowGoose69
    Its been a long time since 12 hours before an event I have told someone NYC or LI is the best spot to be
  3. SnowGoose69
    NYC might be in a perfect spot because inevitably with these dynamic systems with banding it tends to be 20-30 mi northwest of what many models show, if we keep seeing a slight south movement that could put them in the best area
  4. SnowGoose69
    If I remember right the NGM largely blew that storm. The LFM and others were never especially big on it at all but for whatever reason the NGM was bought hard by the forecast offices
  5. SnowGoose69
    Tends to be too dry and too suppressed often times with deeper systems. It can do okay with the weaker lows
  6. SnowGoose69
    I tend to never trust any guidance in these scenarios where you don't have a setup like a 12/2005 where you see stupid gradients from say JFK to LGA....usually in these types of systems the gradient line sets up between Sandy Hook to SI/JFK or well NW of the metro...to see it on a storm of this setup be over top of the metro never really occurs though guidance sometimes tries to suggest it
  7. SnowGoose69
    the Euro was probably too far south but the RGEM being south of the NAM at this range probably means the Euro is not totally out to lunch.
  8. SnowGoose69
    There will be no issues with accumulation as of now, even for NYC. You have DPs on both the NAM/GFS at 12-18Z of 29-32 with winds of 010-040...that is easily going to be temps of 32 or even as low as 30 if the NAM is right and usually its thermals are better at the surface in these storms
  9. SnowGoose69
    They'll be under a WWA I think no matter what, a WSW I doubt would come til 3-4pm tomorrow, even if the Euro dropped more south they'd probably go upper end WWA which is 3-5 I think for the time being
  10. SnowGoose69
    I think Upton/Mt Holly might still be cautious, even if the Euro drops more S....might see them go like 2-4 or 3-5 in NYC for the time being or along that general latitude
  11. SnowGoose69
    The sun angle on 2/13 is not really a huge issue yet. It becomes more a problem early March...15-20 days does not seem like much but it really matters...much like its so easy to see an accumulating snow event on 12/5 but very hard to do it on 11/15. Not for same reasons but same idea how 2-3 weeks things change a ton
  12. SnowGoose69
    The MOS DPs look good to me, 28-29 on NAM, 32-33 on the GFS. I have always in dynamic scenarios averaged those two and as long as your wind is counterclockwise of 060 you'll accumulate down there
  13. SnowGoose69
    I'm not sure if once again in this storm models beyond today viewed that piece of energy dropping through MI/WI as in some way leading to more NRN stream phasing or interaction downstream, but in reality it ended up probably acting more as a kicking mechanism or maybe increasing the confluent impact.
  14. SnowGoose69
    When you consider the fact the SREF is too far NW like 90% of the time thats scary
  15. SnowGoose69
    The DPs on the 12Z GFS and NAM do look cold enough for snow in NYC if the rates are there but we are still a long way off
  16. SnowGoose69
    the 3KM nam typically is just not good beyond 30, maybe 36. I do not like looking at it for any meaningful purpose beyond that and the 12k NAM 48...even the RGEM til 30-36 can be spotty (as I said earlier I feel its tended to be too flat/cold the last 2 winters at this range very often). At this range the Euro/GFS idea with tracks of the surface/id levels is where I like to focus and tomorrow AM I would definitely begin really using the RGEM/NAM
  17. SnowGoose69
    I usually do not take it seriously until inside 30-36..same with the RGEM somewhat...the RGEM has had a bit of a cold/south bias on these events the last 2 winters til the last minute...might be the same thing again but we will have to see if the Euro stabilizes/moves south a bit today
  18. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM last 2 years seems to always be too cold until about 24-30 hours out then it goes 30 miles north with the warm nose or R/S line. I would not be surprised if we see the same thing again here but we'll have to see how the Euro sees things next 2-3 runs
  19. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM did not change a ton from 06z. It did however begin to see the mid-level warm nose more...it does show more pellets now in parts of the area for a time.
  20. SnowGoose69
    Inside 30-36 it definitely does when you're talking about mid-level warm nose stuff...sometimes beyond that in events where you're all snow or all rain with no concerns about mixed precip I have seen it sometimes capture banding ideas or track better than the 12K but it seems to be a crapshoot on that
  21. SnowGoose69
    I definitely felt 3 days ago they had a decent chance since I thought the confluence was just enough this might go 30-50 miles south of where the current average track is
  22. SnowGoose69
    3K usually sucks beyond 30 hours but that said it does tend to have a cold bias at that range in the MLs at times so the fact its somewhat torchy down there could be concerning but perhaps its just too amped with the mid level lows
  23. SnowGoose69
    3K is bad though, even for places like BDL for a time...that said the 3K does suck until inside 30, the 12K can usually begin to be reliable to a degree inside 48...I still doubt we'd see this dip south enough as far ML low track to see anything more than 1 inch near NYC...if this was moving slower its likely we'd actually be able to see something as everything crashed behind the departing low but its moving so darn fast that is not really realistic
  24. SnowGoose69
    In other news those inland probably can be less worried now as the RGEM seems to be catching on with its 18Z run
  25. SnowGoose69
    They are not that far off really. I think they might be aware N Westchester as well as N New London are not going to reach warning criteria in all likelihood but leaving those 2 counties out would be somewhat confusing to the general public.
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