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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I usually do not take it seriously until inside 30-36..same with the RGEM somewhat...the RGEM has had a bit of a cold/south bias on these events the last 2 winters til the last minute...might be the same thing again but we will have to see if the Euro stabilizes/moves south a bit today
  2. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM last 2 years seems to always be too cold until about 24-30 hours out then it goes 30 miles north with the warm nose or R/S line. I would not be surprised if we see the same thing again here but we'll have to see how the Euro sees things next 2-3 runs
  3. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM did not change a ton from 06z. It did however begin to see the mid-level warm nose more...it does show more pellets now in parts of the area for a time.
  4. SnowGoose69
    Inside 30-36 it definitely does when you're talking about mid-level warm nose stuff...sometimes beyond that in events where you're all snow or all rain with no concerns about mixed precip I have seen it sometimes capture banding ideas or track better than the 12K but it seems to be a crapshoot on that
  5. SnowGoose69
    I definitely felt 3 days ago they had a decent chance since I thought the confluence was just enough this might go 30-50 miles south of where the current average track is
  6. SnowGoose69
    3K usually sucks beyond 30 hours but that said it does tend to have a cold bias at that range in the MLs at times so the fact its somewhat torchy down there could be concerning but perhaps its just too amped with the mid level lows
  7. SnowGoose69
    3K is bad though, even for places like BDL for a time...that said the 3K does suck until inside 30, the 12K can usually begin to be reliable to a degree inside 48...I still doubt we'd see this dip south enough as far ML low track to see anything more than 1 inch near NYC...if this was moving slower its likely we'd actually be able to see something as everything crashed behind the departing low but its moving so darn fast that is not really realistic
  8. SnowGoose69
    In other news those inland probably can be less worried now as the RGEM seems to be catching on with its 18Z run
  9. SnowGoose69
    They are not that far off really. I think they might be aware N Westchester as well as N New London are not going to reach warning criteria in all likelihood but leaving those 2 counties out would be somewhat confusing to the general public.
  10. SnowGoose69
    Its going to struggle to go more than maybe another 30 miles off the EPS/Euro IMO. I do not think its going to go full NRN stream phase so its probably limited to maybe a 30 mile tick from the 12z Euro which is what I said yesterday, warning criteria southern edge at worst will go as far N as maybe 84. I'd still be surprised if those places did not see 5-7.
  11. SnowGoose69
    That watch is too far S and E IMO
  12. SnowGoose69
    This close in its rare to see them be that different than the Op but given how much the Op jumped they probably will be somewhat south of it
  13. SnowGoose69
    MJO trend all winter has been faster than both the EPS/GEFS...closer to the GEFS...if that happens its gonna be a long while til it goes into 3-4-5 or anything of that sort and there is a lag of course. I had said no pattern lasted more than 2 weeks all winter. I still expect we get a solid pattern 2/14-2/28 then it probably flips to something else but right now the ensembles may just be rushing the flip a week early
  14. SnowGoose69
    Even Rayo who I think is a tad too far north with this has the accumulating snow with this down to NE NJ/NYC/N LI.
  15. SnowGoose69
    Meh. Not sure that is remotely possibly unless the confluence just vanished entirely, feels like maybe the northern limit on this is no snow south of 84 or so. I'd be sort of mortified if somehow even places like POU/SWF got shutout by this
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah as I said main problem here is once again its somewhat too early at the start of a pattern flip...you'd prefer the storm to happen 3-4 days later and we probably do see something next week but this is marginal even if it does take a track around the EPS average.
  17. SnowGoose69
    I said my main concern for sure is 700mb is not that cold and system is fast so it really needs to be dynamically induced or you'd probably be less snowy than even the Op GFS snow maps depicted
  18. SnowGoose69
    Was about to post the same thing...first run where I believe its idea on the Op D5-9 is likely most accurate.
  19. SnowGoose69
    The other rule now is whatever the UKIE Does the EC does the reverse I swear its like a 80% correlation...so if the UKIE ends up over Cape Cod the Euro will be a whiff, used to be automatic in tandem but rarely the case last few years.
  20. SnowGoose69
    There are multiple things really from progressive flow to small changes across Canada impacting it....I always say I trust the Euro more if we have an El Nino winter and a southern stream juiced system but in this case would not be shocked if whatever the Euro shows today or tomorrow ends up not even close to the end result because it can sometimes drop the ball on key features coming out of Canada that have a major impact on a storm
  21. SnowGoose69
    I always say lean Euro in an El Nino winter if you have major southern stream involvement but in this storm the flow is pretty fast and there are multiple interference factors that could come out of Canada so in reality we might look back in 4 days and find that the GFS or CMC ended up more accurate.
  22. SnowGoose69
    I posted in the NYC forum the CMC has nailed the confluenced/grindied events many times before...I always get a bit nervous when its like this relative to the GFS/Euro if the result is shearing out of the SW or confluence...it seems to have somewhat of a history of seeing that better than the other 2 globals...March 2014 I think it was it saw it at this range with both systems that missed the NYC/SNE area.
  23. SnowGoose69
    Its totally anecdotal but I swear anytime we have confluence issues the CMC seems to nail the idea in the medium range...could be due to some type of added sampling in Canada perhaps but I seem to recall so many cases where we had squashing/meat grinder concerns on the table and the CMC was pounding the idea over the Euo/GFS it tended to have some merit in the end result.
  24. SnowGoose69
    Its been lousy this winter...I thought it was my imagination til someone in the SNE forum posted the numbers....the last 2 winters the wildly progressive pattern and NRN Stream dominance due to the La Nina played into its natural biases but the El Nino this winter with a more active SRN Stream its not been as good
  25. SnowGoose69
    Main issue again though is not sure we have the air mass to tap even if the GFS at 18Z happened precisely in that way...the old DT rule was if you wanna go rain to snow near the coast here you better be -10 at 700 nearby and its not even close to that really...the other way to do it is a slow moving vertically stacked bomb but thats not the case either.
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