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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Compared to the GFS the UKIE is at the North Pole....difference with GFS seems to be its dropping the whole trof from Lakes/Canada down and just squashing the whole setup...it may also be ever so slightly slower exiting stage right the previous system but hard to say if that really had an impact
  2. SnowGoose69
    Ultimately ensembles did okay...we got the window 2/12-2/25 we thought we'd get and we might see 3 snow events out of it in the end if something latter next week works out.. the rule this winter was no pattern held for more than 10-14 days really and I expect the same happens again...the pattern 3/10-3/30 probably won't look anything like the one from 2/26-3/10 will.
  3. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM/NAM difference is really just the strength of the S/W...the exiting storm is not really markedly causing more confluence on either model vs the other
  4. SnowGoose69
    I think people forget El Niños can fail because of reasons other than the massive Aleutian vortex too. 91-92 94-95 and 06-07 all in essence failed for reasons other than that. That said, none of those was anywhere near as strong as this one was
  5. SnowGoose69
    You can see the signature even on the low resolution (relatively speaking in 2024 modeling terms) GFS that expansion of light snow way north. This system due to the insane jet at 200-250mb is probably going to have an expansive area of snow far from the center if I had to guess
  6. SnowGoose69
    It probably won’t verify in the end. The various ensembles have no idea what the MJO is gonna do the next few weeks so it’s likely the idea won’t be close to what actually happens
  7. SnowGoose69
    Decent chance if this makes a direct hit many places would do marginally better than they did today
  8. SnowGoose69
    Yeah its hard to believe ratios were 5:1
  9. SnowGoose69
    My hunch is this misses to the south as of now but we all saw how well ideas worked on this storm from 3-4 days out
  10. SnowGoose69
    .25 liquid last two hours, 1.7 snow so it’s under 10:1 by quite a bit so far
  11. SnowGoose69
    Its been a long time since 12 hours before an event I have told someone NYC or LI is the best spot to be
  12. SnowGoose69
    NYC might be in a perfect spot because inevitably with these dynamic systems with banding it tends to be 20-30 mi northwest of what many models show, if we keep seeing a slight south movement that could put them in the best area
  13. SnowGoose69
    If I remember right the NGM largely blew that storm. The LFM and others were never especially big on it at all but for whatever reason the NGM was bought hard by the forecast offices
  14. SnowGoose69
    Tends to be too dry and too suppressed often times with deeper systems. It can do okay with the weaker lows
  15. SnowGoose69
    I tend to never trust any guidance in these scenarios where you don't have a setup like a 12/2005 where you see stupid gradients from say JFK to LGA....usually in these types of systems the gradient line sets up between Sandy Hook to SI/JFK or well NW of the metro...to see it on a storm of this setup be over top of the metro never really occurs though guidance sometimes tries to suggest it
  16. SnowGoose69
    the Euro was probably too far south but the RGEM being south of the NAM at this range probably means the Euro is not totally out to lunch.
  17. SnowGoose69
    There will be no issues with accumulation as of now, even for NYC. You have DPs on both the NAM/GFS at 12-18Z of 29-32 with winds of 010-040...that is easily going to be temps of 32 or even as low as 30 if the NAM is right and usually its thermals are better at the surface in these storms
  18. SnowGoose69
    They'll be under a WWA I think no matter what, a WSW I doubt would come til 3-4pm tomorrow, even if the Euro dropped more south they'd probably go upper end WWA which is 3-5 I think for the time being
  19. SnowGoose69
    I think Upton/Mt Holly might still be cautious, even if the Euro drops more S....might see them go like 2-4 or 3-5 in NYC for the time being or along that general latitude
  20. SnowGoose69
    The sun angle on 2/13 is not really a huge issue yet. It becomes more a problem early March...15-20 days does not seem like much but it really matters...much like its so easy to see an accumulating snow event on 12/5 but very hard to do it on 11/15. Not for same reasons but same idea how 2-3 weeks things change a ton
  21. SnowGoose69
    The MOS DPs look good to me, 28-29 on NAM, 32-33 on the GFS. I have always in dynamic scenarios averaged those two and as long as your wind is counterclockwise of 060 you'll accumulate down there
  22. SnowGoose69
    I'm not sure if once again in this storm models beyond today viewed that piece of energy dropping through MI/WI as in some way leading to more NRN stream phasing or interaction downstream, but in reality it ended up probably acting more as a kicking mechanism or maybe increasing the confluent impact.
  23. SnowGoose69
    When you consider the fact the SREF is too far NW like 90% of the time thats scary
  24. SnowGoose69
    The DPs on the 12Z GFS and NAM do look cold enough for snow in NYC if the rates are there but we are still a long way off
  25. SnowGoose69
    the 3KM nam typically is just not good beyond 30, maybe 36. I do not like looking at it for any meaningful purpose beyond that and the 12k NAM 48...even the RGEM til 30-36 can be spotty (as I said earlier I feel its tended to be too flat/cold the last 2 winters at this range very often). At this range the Euro/GFS idea with tracks of the surface/id levels is where I like to focus and tomorrow AM I would definitely begin really using the RGEM/NAM
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