SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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I think it’s still likely landfall ends up down near Sarasota or a tad south of that. We should see models move that way next 24 hours. Part of that reasoning is they are showing a harder SE movement next day or so
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HWRF directly into Tampa at 933mb
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I guess the good news with those HMON/HAFS tracks is the population is way lower where they bring the storm in
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06z Euro is much slower than the 00Z but it may have ended up close to the same location of landfall in the end
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GA I think had more in Irma and Zeta, about 1.2 and 1.1 but that was sort of skewed by the fact ATL metro was impacted, this time they likely account for under 200K of those outages
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It should be done in an hour or 90 minutes as the system lifts out the dynamics weaken and this is also a bit of a downslope direction
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Unfortunately this area will make its way into Augusta. I think it might weaken somewhat by then but might still see 70-80mph
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87kts now. I was not sure those were correct until I saw this post as they seemed too high
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Lots of gusts of 84-99 on the FL mesonet. Valdosta may actually see worst winds pass E of them out of the SSE in the ERN eye wall
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FPY is an AWOS so odds are something higher than 86kts did happen but no PKWND algorithm is on those systems
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FPY 86kts
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https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=FL&rawsflag=3
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There are many mesonet stations in the Suwanee Springs area...we may get higher wind confirmation there when eye wall goes though
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FPY gusting to 71kts right now, surprised they never got anything bigger but the AWOS does not report a peak wind so hard to know what the real high was
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Perry ASOS 55kts now, it only reports every 20 mins so this may be last ob we get, if not the 1035 one might be 80kts plus
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Its attempting to stay out over the bay more because the NNE movement would take it over land faster, typical frictional impacts, notice the radar images have really intensified as a result too, it'll eventually resume NNE movement probably and just come onshore but its doing the typical land aversion attempt
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I believe its trying to move more towards the open water vs keep heading NNE into the land closer to it, you can see some tightening too as a result, echoes have really ramped up last 20 mins
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If it does not turn N soon they could be on the N or NNW side so even they may be west of center.
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Select all networks, even decent gusts from the NNW by Apalachicola https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=FL&rawsflag=3
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Yeah looks like Augusta is in trouble for sure.
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FPY winds being only 20kts is funny. I’m always amazed how with land falling canes winds don’t get going til the eyewall comes in
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Macon is gonna be close. They’re quite a bit east of Atlanta but I wouldn’t be surprised at this stage if the system even went east of them. Athens and Augusta could be in for a world of hurt though
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Yeah I heard that. Makes no sense as just an hour or two ago they showed 50 which to me makes most sense and that might not happen til 10-11Z when the W-NW sting jet gets them
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I think the only mistake was the 11am issuance. They went W only to have to go back E again thereafter. Maybe holding it steady was right idea. I'd have played the split between the hurricane models and globals a bit more dead even than they did the last 2 days for sure
