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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    More resembles the WRF-ARW2 now which by far has been closest to what is happening on timing and formation of cells
  2. SnowGoose69
    Its only showers but already more activity initiating in PA than the HRRR showed. Could still see a line of TSTMs here 22-23z
  3. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR IMO is underdone somewhat while the 3km NAM is likely overdone. The instability sort of peaks more in NJ. We may see little to nothing on that line til the disturbance reaches far NE PA and W NJ but development would probably fire up much faster than the HRRR indicates
  4. SnowGoose69
    We'll see if ocean temps are warm enough for these cells to maybe make it across and impact southern Queens or Brooklyn but I think they'll weaken
  5. SnowGoose69
    The SUNY Oswego webcams look like there could be a wall cloud off to the west but its not rotating from what I see and may just be leftover from an old circulation
  6. SnowGoose69
    I was listening to some radio station in Jamaica that night as were some others here on this forum or maybe easternwx, I recall the guys giving a play by play and it took somewhat of a last minute jog SW I think
  7. SnowGoose69
    18z hurricane models are a bit closer to Jamaica again
  8. SnowGoose69
    LaGuardia reporting 101 this hour
  9. SnowGoose69
    I think the change began quite a bit before that too. I began noticing in 1996 or 97 that their readings began falling, in 93-95 there did not seem to be a huge disparity. Another issue that some have theorized plagues the readings at NYC, especially on hot days where there is less wind is a layer of smog that can develop in urbanized areas and slightly reduce the solar radiation. This was pointed out by someone back in 98 or 99 that they'd often soar in temp til 12-1pm then level off and not go up as much as the other stations.
  10. SnowGoose69
    Even now why is the GEFS so much more troffy out west near 3/20 vs the GEPS/EPS? Even with the two ensembles close to the same on MJO amplitude in 7? Would see again GEFS just more thinks the PAC jet is gonna blast the PAC NW blocking ridge that forms away while the other 2 suites do not see it being as easy to knock it down
  11. SnowGoose69
    Models always try to rush pattern flips...depending upon what the SSW does though we might find that things change faster than expected. Would not be exactly blown away if the 3/10-3/15 period ends up colder or much different looking at H5 than what ensembles will show over the next 5 days when its falling in the 11-15 span.
  12. SnowGoose69
    There was a pretty strong push from the mid 90s to the mid 2000s to hire mostly degreed meteorologists on TV but in the last 10-15 years that has really vanished again. Many of the people on TWC for example are not meteorologists now...at least the more recent hires anyway. Part of the problem is the Mississippi degree is becoming a huge thing now. I have been hearing even operational meteorology jobs they're seeing like 30% of the applicants with that degree. NWS requirements still force you to have courses though which won't qualify you with that degree
  13. SnowGoose69
    Some similarities to 00-01 though December 03 was not nearly as cold but the winter decided to just take a long break for most of February into early March before it came back again. February 04 remains the only case for NYC where at least 6 inches of snow did not fall when Dec/Jan both had 10 inches or more.
  14. SnowGoose69
    Ensembles have tended to be too strong with any SE ridging most of the winter...the area they've missed has been the PNA ridge which has tended to verify way flatter than shown in the longer range but the tendency to want to show ridging maximized outside of SE Canada or New England has failed on numerous occasions which is why despite being above normal for the winter, places from MS across to GA and into FL have been frigid relative to what they saw in Jan/Feb 2023....I have seen ATL has had only 1 high of 70 or higher the entire winter so far which explains why on web cameras I see the pear trees hae not even bloomed yet where last year as well as 18/19 and even 22 they were basically leafed out by now.
  15. SnowGoose69
    89-90/96-97/01-02/11-12/12-13 were all relatively bad. I am not sure a neutral after a Nina would be bad but they do tend to be and often times they suck for a large section of the country...01-02, 11-12, 12-13 were pretty much bad in large sectors of the nation.
  16. SnowGoose69
    I always wondered how they measured back before 93. I assume they labeled the measurements at CPK but they must have been getting done outside the NWS office at Rockefeller Plaza at the time
  17. SnowGoose69
    I thought it 03-04 JFK beat them
  18. SnowGoose69
    The airport and downtown has been shafted in every event somehow it seems
  19. SnowGoose69
    This is the one event I think they clearly under measured. I could definitely make an argument for what they got in the previous event as EWR/LGA were close
  20. SnowGoose69
    It still appears it won't last long...already ensembles beginning to flip things more +PNA or zonal at the end of their runs minus the GEFS which has been really lousy all winter anyway, we cannot sustain any pattern more than 10-14 days it seems and once again we probably won't here. We'll see if maybe after 3/25 we can flip things consistently mild but I do think we will have a lousy cold dreary stretch mid March.
  21. SnowGoose69
    FWIW the GEPS had a much less hostile pattern at the end than the GEFS/EPS did so we'll see if something could still happen in mid March perhaps....I would still expect even if we have a hostile pattern 2/27 to 3/10 it could flip again
  22. SnowGoose69
    Yeah based on EWR and LGA its fairly likely they are like 0.5 too low on this event at least
  23. SnowGoose69
    Staten Island might be upgraded to a winter storm warning shortly
  24. SnowGoose69
    It sure does look right now relative to 12-18Z models today that the heaviest snows may end up north of that
  25. SnowGoose69
    Sure does appear the RGEM/Euro will be best on start times. Places in PA snowing or about to snow the NAM/recent HRRR runs did not have snowing til 05z
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