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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I thought it 03-04 JFK beat them
  2. SnowGoose69
    The airport and downtown has been shafted in every event somehow it seems
  3. SnowGoose69
    This is the one event I think they clearly under measured. I could definitely make an argument for what they got in the previous event as EWR/LGA were close
  4. SnowGoose69
    It still appears it won't last long...already ensembles beginning to flip things more +PNA or zonal at the end of their runs minus the GEFS which has been really lousy all winter anyway, we cannot sustain any pattern more than 10-14 days it seems and once again we probably won't here. We'll see if maybe after 3/25 we can flip things consistently mild but I do think we will have a lousy cold dreary stretch mid March.
  5. SnowGoose69
    FWIW the GEPS had a much less hostile pattern at the end than the GEFS/EPS did so we'll see if something could still happen in mid March perhaps....I would still expect even if we have a hostile pattern 2/27 to 3/10 it could flip again
  6. SnowGoose69
    Yeah based on EWR and LGA its fairly likely they are like 0.5 too low on this event at least
  7. SnowGoose69
    Staten Island might be upgraded to a winter storm warning shortly
  8. SnowGoose69
    It sure does look right now relative to 12-18Z models today that the heaviest snows may end up north of that
  9. SnowGoose69
    Sure does appear the RGEM/Euro will be best on start times. Places in PA snowing or about to snow the NAM/recent HRRR runs did not have snowing til 05z
  10. SnowGoose69
    A few years back I felt we'd see a flip to a -AMO soon, not so sure now but it should occur in next few years as its been 28-29 years now
  11. SnowGoose69
    I have to check the 72-73 anomalies at 500 which was more of a -PDO Nino. But I think it resembled as PSU said in the MA forum the classic pattern that used to work for us and even the SRN US but no longer does with the -AO/NAO and -PNA but you did not have the stupid ridging in the SE we always see now in that pattern
  12. SnowGoose69
    Most strong Ninos feature the raging E Pac vortex which was largely absent this winter
  13. SnowGoose69
    They'll likely be around 35/14 or so when snow begins...will get down to upper 20s but will be 10:1 or 9:1 for awhile at the start. I'd still lean 2-3 with a shot they get around 3.5 or so but I'd be 30-35% they beat the last storm total...decent odds but would not set it over 50
  14. SnowGoose69
    Remember the usual rule, 20-30 miles N of where most models show...most show best banding between around TTN and Toms River roughly so perhaps you focus on Perth Amboy/SI south to about Lakehurt for the best chance of banding here as of now....S shore of Queens/Bklyn/W LI might be able to get in on it with a slight north shift
  15. SnowGoose69
    Most likely yes, the fact Canada just was stupidly warm...even 09-10 it was not that cold of a winter at all outside of the southern tier of the US...Canada was largely torched that winter too
  16. SnowGoose69
    It still tends to have a NW bias at this range so I usually take it S-SE or E somewhat beyond 18 hours...last event it was definitely a bit too far NW but hard to tell since we had fluky subsidence and bands and the models were all over the final day or so
  17. SnowGoose69
    I think NYC needs 2.6 to avoid being top 10 least snowy winters...hard to believe when I began doing this 35 years ago #10 was like 12.6 inches lol
  18. SnowGoose69
    Its fairly crazy how mild the winter was basically for the entire nation despite the fact we never really had a true strong El Nino pattern at any point
  19. SnowGoose69
    I think its still semi tough...you'll lose some to melting and 8-10:1 ratios the first 90 minutes probably...you'll end up 12-13:1 eventually but I still think its only going to be around 2-3 there.
  20. SnowGoose69
    Meanwhile no shocker the extended Euro flips the pattern again by 3/10...no shocker as no pattern has lasted over 14 days all winter long
  21. SnowGoose69
    LOL GFS only model to really get wetter anywhere from the MA to NJ at 00Z
  22. SnowGoose69
    Slightly but most have just weakened the system, the ICON is notably drier too
  23. SnowGoose69
    Not sure the RGEM went south as much as it was just way drier, at least on the maps I have so far
  24. SnowGoose69
    I think positive bust more so somewhere where nobody thinks anything will happen or only 1-2 will be forecast. I would not think this one will be tough of a forecast nearer to the low center and better dynamics but yeah, I do think a zone in between will be marginally disappointed like this last event, that was partly due to UHI probably but even if it was 25F there'd have been notably lower amounts in NE NJ and NYC last storm
  25. SnowGoose69
    As I said watch for jet dynamics to induce more snow in this event, even in areas which may be modeled to get little from the coastal. I suspect in this storm there will be a screw zone like last event, not for same reasons but lets take the 18Z RGEM as an example...obviously CNJ sees biggest amounts but I'd bet that places in NE PA/SE NY and NW CT there'd be some zone that gets like 4-5 inches while in between amounts are lower. It happens often in setups like this. The HRRR has notoriously nailed those jet induced snow maxes, even from 36-48 out and indeed if you look at the 18Z run from 34-38 you see that somewhat with that band over PA with a screw zone of lighter echoes between...once the coastal takes over more it sort of loses the snow everywhere and that idea does need to be watched here, but if we get this to tick a bit north it won't matter much.
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