SnowGoose69

They have to give credence to the ULL and as much as the RGEM/NAM are not hurricane models they for sure have noticed that the mesos are tugging the cane more NNW over GA. They most definitely are aware of fact that the stronger the cane is the more likely it can resist the pull longer. I think their track is a safe middle ground although I feel maybe 30 miles E would have been better

The HWRF track is close to my thinking, although again if it comes in THAT strong I think it has more of an east of north component for a bit longer or at least more of one into S GA

Direction is big too. Due N-S winds are rare in ATL, the airport does not even have a N-S RWY much like DFW/DAL do not often see strong W-WSW winds so tree roots are likely not going to be able to handle 45-55 from 160-180 as well as they could 040-080. 60 plus forget it. Georgia had real severe damage from Zeta despite winds being S-SW due to the fact the direction was rare.

The meso models seem to be furthest west along with those hurricane models. I still think a landfall point near where the NHC forecast is will be close but not sure the movement for awhile after landfall won't be more NNE of the current NHC track and mesos

Tomorrow will be rained out too. They're gonna go to a neutral site in alll likelihood though they keep denying it

In this case I feel the closer it is to strong 3 or more upon nearing landfall it’s likely go NNE or NE longer after landfall because the upper low won’t capture it til it’s undergoing major weakening. So no question the NNW hook is probably delayed more if this comes in as a 4 vs a 2. As for whether the track prior to landfall is impacted by the strength I’m not sure. It’s possible if that upper low has tugging power reaching more into the Gulf at 48 hours then maybe a weaker cane will be going more 010 vs 040 at landfall

18Z Euro somewhat east of the 12Z run

NHC still splitting the difference between the hurricane ensemble and the other models. I still think they'll end up too far west in the end by maybe 50-70 miles

18Z models all west, meanwhile globals and the 12z HMON/HAFS/HWRF Are more east of this

Euro is pretty much NHC track, it seems to NOT get as close to the Yucatan as the 06Z Euro did

The HAFS B comes in near the NHC track but its very weak, HMON appears it'll come in east of NHC track but way stronger

HAFS-B smacks it well into the Yucatan lol

Even Hugo moving at 25 was a 75-80 mph storm when it got to Charlotte so yeah, likely just a strong TS by the time it got to like ATL or near there but thats still bad with saturated ground.

Early 12Z guidance definitely a couple less far west benders over GA. Thats very close to NHC/Euro tracks

Wilma I think was fastest it was a TS to a 5 in like 22 hours or something close to that. There’s been many that have gone TS to a 3 or 4 relatively fast as well

Definitely have noticed that but so often seems the track is some combo of the Euro/GFS/HWRF

The NHC track looks exactly like the Euro too. I have found in recent years NHC focuses more as far as track on the Euro as well as the HWRF/HMON. Those other spaghetti models just seem more often to be ignored now by them or considered less. It’s clear they’re not buying the N-NNW movement after landfall, at least not til the system is weaker hours later. That NNW movement idea to me only would work if this comes in as a weak mess. If it’s a strong 2 or higher it’s going to move E of N for awhile after landfall despite any upper low to the west

The NAM agreeing with the current 00Z hurricane models would be the best NAM/ETA hurricane track forecast in history at 72-84 if it verified

The problem is the dry air issue seems non existent this time so something else is going to have to save it.

By the old rule you wanna be in Atlanta or Apalachicola right now if you do NOT want to get hit by this. You know, even in 2024 its never going to take anything close to that exact track, by that I mean still within 100 miles but 100 miles left or right is everything.

All of them seem closer to the Yucatan too. A further NW track is not good overall as it might enable it to both stay over the Gulf longer and also hit the area of warmer waters

A cool 100mb difference from the 12Z HAFS-B lol

The track on the hurricane models too IMO is not likely after landfall. I think the NNE or NE movement after landfall is more likely, especially if this is a 3 or 4. A hurricane that strong more often can be somewhat deflected by a feature such as the low over the WRN gulf states vs absorbed in.

This feels like when all the models show a massive coastal storm at Day 7-8 and everyone assumes its 2024 the models cannot all be wrong on that, SOMETHING will happen and then we've seen often times it does not since 96-120 tends to be more of the magical range for that theory. Add in that everything has struggled to develop this year and you'd still need a perfect scenario where it misses the Yucatan here for this to be something close to what guidance is indicating. I think A storm happens but the odds something this perfect materializes is low

Saw JB's Euro seasonal post and it makes no sense IMO. I don't see why you'd basically have a nationwide torch in a weak Nina following a moderate Nino, there really is no track record of that ever happening. If want to go purely off the ENSO you'd say 54-55 83-84 92-93 16-17 seem to be the closest matches of weak Nina following Mod or greater Nino. None of those were nationwide torches at all. I guess the problem is 2 were in a +PDO ERA. 16-17 is the only thing remotely close to that Euro seasonal US temp anomaly forecast and even the west was way colder.