SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Used to know what the NAM indicated but not anymore, up til 6-7 years ago it always had an amped bias at 72-84 so if it was not grossly NW of everything else you knew where things stood but it underwent an upgrade in 2017 I think and since then that bias is gone
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The EURO AI looks about what I expect will happen here, it may come a tad north of that in the end but I stand by the idea the CMC is wrong and maybe even the GFS now is too north
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After the NAM's performance last event, even 12 hours out it should be banned from use for this storm
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The RGEM does have a bit of an amped bias past 48 but even if you account for that it still would be well west of everything else. You need a 100 mile shift more or less
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I'd give the RGEM no credit given the CMC's now no longer awesome performance on the 2nd storm but the ICON moving W gives me some belief maybe the RGEM gets weighted more than the Euro in the split difference in the end
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It caved to everything else on the other storm so I am not sure I am too confident about what its doing. It probably ends up close to a GFS/ICON idea in the end which is middle between Euro/RGEM
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God those are ballsy watch areas I have to say. If the EPS is even 50% right most of those are going to end up being dropped entirely.
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Makes no sense though based on GFS track, GFS has N'ly winds and a T/Td at EWR of 32/24 when snow moves in, would probably be down to 29 degrees pretty fast and never move from there
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Rare case where the #1 CIPS analog is a pretty darn close case...overall everyone from NYC to BOS was 2-5, there was definitely less of a surface reflection in this case though than this time https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0119.php
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Most of the CIPS analogs were light events, only one that is terribly close at 500 is 1/18-19/84 which was around 3-4 most of the area. Many were inland snow events, but way inland because the whole trof axis in the east was much further west than it is here. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0119.php
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The NAM totally sucked last week too with the storm in the south, not sure why its suddenly having such major issues, been awhile since I've seen it do this
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We are still far out buy the Euro still tends to be too low on QPF in my mind on any system that’s entraining Atlantic or Gulf moisture. It was the only model to accurately depict the snow in the MA two weeks ago because that was a rare case of a W-E moving storm where you weren’t entraining a ton of Atlantic moisture into it.
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yeah to me that event is close to dead as far as coming up the coast. I’ve been hitting the 73-89 drum on that for 3 days. Canadian may have nailed this one up here but it’s gonna bomb I think on its idea down there
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I think it’s getting late early for places in northern MS/AL. Not necessarily the same in GA/SC. I think ATL/GSP may still be alive albeit barely. This has potential to have a late movement up the coast still where those areas may get hit though I still think I’d rather be in Augusta or Columbia
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I still cannot believe how different the GFS is in the SE past 120 compared to every other model
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The GFS/GEFS difference for the storm on the Gulf Coast last 120 could be the craziest difference I’ve seen from the Op to an ensemble on a single model run inside day 7 ever
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I’ve wondered with Denver where the person who measures is at since there isn’t exactly anyone nearby as you said
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Yeah it’s not even close to the Op. that’s extremely rare to see with the GFS honestly. They usually are in tandem but there are some setups where there can be wild differences from the Op to the ensembles
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It also has no event in the south after that so it’s most likely wrong
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No matter how many times that SE ridge keeps trying to appear beyond about 290 hours it keeps getting flattened or pushed east once we get closer in time
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As good as the AI has been its been jumpy post 120. It keeps going more with the GFS idea of the later wave and the system digging for China. I am not sure I buy that. I think something between the UKMET/ICON where it ejects along the Gulf from TX vs coming up out of the oil rigs is more likely.
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I think all 4 are someone who lives just off the airport within 1 mile. BOS you'll notice never puts 4 groups or SNINCR remarks in METARs during snow events as those other airports do not either. If you see that you know they are not measuring there.
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No it was the 06. I believe ISP measures at the airport. As far as I know the only airports nationwide where the measuring is not done at the field are BOS/PHL/DTW/DEN. There may be others I am not aware of but those all got moved due to bad measuring and JFK was close to being moved too
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Hope the EURO AI is right. No QPF available but probably is like 2-5 inches. Its been so good the last month or two inside of 120. A bit erratic beyond that and I feel the Euro/EPS has beaten it from 120-180 but it was really the only model that accurately depicted the SRN US Event last week from days out
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I still like the idea right now of places like BHM/ATL being on the north end of this and it being more a central AL-GA-coastal SC NC event. But I am still wary of the fact that these days these cold air masses tend to be overdone on models at this range, if thats the case again something near or just south of this previous event is likely.
