SnowGoose69

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You just can’t ride it like we used to. It used to sniff out an evolution and make incremental adjustments which made it easier to forecast…but nowadays it jumps around like every other model. It’s JAM now.  

The good news is its due for an upgrade soon...the bad news as a poster said here last night is the NAM is set to be discontinued perhaps....its fallen behind schedule since the plan was for the HRRR to run to 84 I believe, but as we've seen the HRRR often has a major BL cool bias beyond 18-24 and sometimes even a midlevel one too

3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Mr Rayno thinks Boston gets a foot based on the track of the upper low off shore.  

Yeah he's not wrong with his ideas.  I saw that on twitter...I do not buy the huge snow shield the HRRR/3K have back into our area tomorrow at all.  I understand what they're keying in on to have that but to me the system is simply closed off a tad too far east for that to happen...its not crazy though that maybe the N Fork of cntrl to E Suffolk and maybe places like HVN could get in on a decent period of snow in the afternoon tomorrow.  The DPs are cold enough this time that no question on a N flow places could get to 32-33 and accumulate 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Jesus what a mess. The mesos look far more impactful than the globals here in CT. High high bust potential. 

I think where you are the HRRR/3k ideas tomorrow are not that crazy but the snows it shows back as far as SW CT to me are probably bogus as the whole evolution of the storm IMO is too sloppy to produce that degree of snow coverage

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If it’s really a phased bomb in the right location a la NAM, there definitely could be big totals near the city, 10”+ because there would be 1-2”/hr rates easy in the CCB under a heavy band. But if it’s a more sloppy outcome and it phases too late like the GFS or it plows into CT like GGEM it could be just white rain at the end. Still a ton of uncertainty. 

I'd take the CMC idea from 48-54...it would probably be mostly snow in the city despite what it shows if that unfolded.  the 700mb temps of -11 to -12C are colder than the magic number often used to determine if in a scenario you're trying to cool the airmass in a CCB scenario you want to see -10C or colder at 700 to be confident you're going to get down to 33-34 or less at the surface...this is a rule some older mets have used

9 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Depends on a lot of things. There are verification scores available but usually the Euro is a strong model. 

I’m North of 84 so I do think this has a good shot for me. The past two weeks have also felt the most wintry of the whole winter. Very odd. January was just awful though for winter. 

This is such a wildly convoluted set up I probably wouldn’t trust anything at the moment.  Chances are you can throw out the NAM GFS and probably just mix the euro and the Canadian but as we saw on the 6z RGEM it barely even has any snow in Boston. the problem is the RGM is a fairly lousy model past 48 too with a set up such as this.  It can do well with simple systems beyond 48 but when it comes to convoluted phases and coastal systems with phasing and captures it can be pretty terrible past 48.   

3 hours ago, weathermedic said:

OKX sticking with a mostly rain scenario at the coast.

From this morning’s AFD:

By Monday night, the upper level low forces the coastal low to
rapidly deepen as it passes near the 40N 70 W benchmark. Some model
guidance actually has a separate area of low pressure develop
over the area in the apex of the inverted trough. This will
result in widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Rain along the coast
may be heavy at times through the night. This is likely when a
bulk of the precipitation from the event falls with coastal
areas possibly seeing as much as 1.5 inches of rainfall from
sunset Monday to sunrise Tuesday.

There remains a considerable amount of uncertainty as to how the
transition to snowfall occurs of the northwestern fringe of the
cyclone. The thinking is that mainly rain Monday evening
transitions to a rain/snow mix and then primarily snow for the
Lower Hudson Valley and portions of interior NE NJ and W
Connecticut. As strengthening NW winds advect marginally cool
air from the north, the rain/snow transition may make some
southward progress toward daybreak Tuesday.

There remains a possibility that precipitation for much of the
area will be a mix of rain and snow by Tuesday morning and
through much of the day on Tuesday with temperatures expected to
be in the middle 30s for the coastal areas. As precipitation
lightens Tuesday afternoon and evening, the upper level trough
passes over the area allowing for a more favorable profile for
plain snow for much of the area. Any accumulations at this point
should be minimal.

I'd be fairly scared if I was them about going big at all with snow right now near the coast but I'd probably at least cover with 1-2 inches possibly for now

The UKIE made like 3 attempts to go full GFS in the 18 hours prior to it fully consolidating.  You can see not just the GFS is struggling with the evolution of this

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

UKMET back to being hilarious. Has 12" or nearly in NYC and nothing in Hartford/Springfield because of downslope. Boston gets slushy 1-2" at the end. I can't imagine how SNE would melt down from that (there'd be little to melt anyway). I'd pay big bucks to see that.  

It was sort of 00Z NAM/GFSish at 12Z...it tried to do it again but did it less and consolidated better which is what made the difference 

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is a mess 

Big elongated low

We've seen double barreled setups before with these E coast storms but not in setups such as this 

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Cmc looks decent but I wonder how much of that is the norlun feature, the low still looks pretty Far East. 

As we saw on 2/8/13 you can get pretty big snows with the surface low way east if you have completed the entire capture and phase...NYC was snowing heavily at 06Z that night with the SFC low way east.  I would not exactly expect that we are going to get that scenario though

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2013/us0209.php

The problem we have is even the Euro is way too warm at 925 for most of the event as was posted in the SNE forum (you can see maps there on recent pages)  you'd basically not snow here til roughly 78 hours or so.   No question the more SRN stream this trends the more likely we see big snows here.  You might see models move hard one way or the other at 12 or 00Z today now that everything is onshore 

Just now, mannynyc said:

Long range NAM is a joke.

This setup is probably too convoluted for the NAM to get it right at this range.  

Just now, wxsniss said:

After so many rug pulls this winter, it's hard to believe this is within 96 hours

Still a relatively fragile setup but great to see some consensus emerge tonight. I would not be shocked to see this trend a bit further southeast if sampling of the southern stream Saturday proves it to be more stout

The Euro could definitely be wrong trying to be too SRN stream involved for sure...its done that before when the CMC/GFS are trying to say the NRN stream will be more of an issue 

8 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

When it's this close it's over until it's over. The ECMWF which last run had the low near Boston now has it over Cape Cod which is an improvement. It also intensifies further south, also an improvement over last run. And on Wednesday it moves away extremely slowly and there would probably be, if these maps are correct, precipitation rotating around the storm's center back into parts of the NYC Metro from the north and east until around mid-day.

WX/PT

Its just way more southern stream involved but the general tendency is GFS better with NRN stream/EC better with southern...not sure which is right but no question Euro is sort of on its own right now

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m shocked we are seeing an unfavorable trend inside day 5. That’s so unlike this whole winter

Actually most storms its occurred before that lol.  There has been ticks that have gone bad inside Day 5 but in general this winter models have sort of locked onto a general idea at Day 6 or 7 then held it from there.  We've lost like 5 storms to cutters at 130-150 that never came back but ultimately maybe shifted 75-100 miles which impacted places like Buffalo or Detroit but one of us cared

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

If its raining in NYC with that thickness and low position then I am officially declaring myself God

Just now, LibertyBell said:

what caused us to bust in Fools Day 1997?  also a late capture from a flat ridge?

 

We dry slotted more or less...we were cold enough 

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I think the danger is we're three days out and a lot can go wrong. IE the low developing too late or dynamics not being strong enough to cool the BL ect. 

But as things stand now verbatim, I think most would do very well. It wouldn't be an epic blizzard for the coast but it would easily be the biggest snowfall of the season.

Yeah I have no concerns about the air mass with this unless it basically just tracks so far east it misses but if this thing goes up over SNE its likely going to snow everywhere 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

We don’t have an established cold air source which is always a problem but as the calendar gets later becomes more of a problem. Sat AM’s event will likely fail for us for that reason and this next one may too if it doesn’t bomb out and bring cold air in somehow. 

This one won't really have an issue at all if it tracks where the Euro/ICON for example have it going...we have a decent cold source to pull down.  I think this system is gonna bomb, its just a question if it just goes way too far west but I do not expect lack of dynamics to be a likely issue with this one

snowman has semi joked about this all winter but reality is this rule can sometimes still work...we've yet to see a case yet where the GFS was trying to go to the fish and the other guidance was all a decent hit overall at Day 4-5...this really is the first case where as a whole the GFS is where you want it at this range or at least most runs has been

This is a rare case where NYC can do better than SNE if the storm takes the right track...it would be fitting in this winter to see something odd like that happen

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Hrrr is pretty good

The HRRR is usually too cold at this range but the good news is it does show the meat of the heaviest QPF being over the area...if that verifies we have a shot but these things will tend to end up more NE in time.  I'd like being probably in SW CT at this point in time 

Thermals on even the high res guidance are pretty poor here.  I'd be fairly surprised if anything measurable fell in the metro itself UNLESS the axis of the IT feature ends up dead over the top and you could probably drop 2-3 wet inches of snow before by 9am it melted

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Truth be told … I just get aggravated by the imbyism.  I’m seeing two storms as being likely to be caused by this descent into an active pattern.   

One seems more apt to affect SNE … doesn’t mean this thread, or anyone’s contribution within it, failed. In fact quite the opposite. 

Im not sure I trust the NAM for amplitude at this range. But the blend may bring accumulating snow to the upper MA for sat. 
 

 

The NAM sort of shows what can happen if the system does not occlude at a crazy fast rate...if you ran that thing to 96 it would be insane probably.  I do wonder if maybe globals are attempting to occlude this too quickly upon the transfer and redevelopment.  Even the RGEM does not seem to do it by 84, its just simply way way south

This is a case where you just need things to be perfect where the transfer is late enough that the system bombs in the right spot and it does not occlude too ast