SnowGoose69

The GEFS/GEPS both reverted more western trof near 300 hours but quickly went back to the same pattern after 320. Its almost as if both keyed in on a strong storm signal. Any storm in that window would probably cut or come close to doing so anyway

It really makes no sense based on its MJO forecast but I guess there does tend to be a lag, I said last week it might be closer to 1/10 before the pattern really becomes favorable. 1/1-1/5 was being optimistic

The NAM wants no part of it yet but that may just be due to it being out of range

Too much of it is luck though and the sample size is still small. For example, everything imaginable went wrong in December 89, it almost happened again in 2000, but chances were there all month long both years. 2000-2001 would have averaged below normal without the 12/30 storm obviously, so I guess the predictive measure the winter finishes below normal is a good one. But the rest of the winter being poor snow wise, not so much as if not for that remarkably lucky storm we'd still have had 23 inches of snow in Jan/Feb/Mar of 2001 which is darn good.

Oddly enough those totals at JFK/LGA seem somewhat suspicious to me at same time. I'm not sure how LGA added one more inch and JFK 0.7 more after 7am.

The MJO plots now show both the Euro/GFS trying to go stronger through 8 and 1 as well.

Flow tends to be faster and you have more Miller Bs vs As

I think a wind profiler in ATL that ingested data for NCEP had broken. Something like it had a 50 degree error in winds aloft.

The first halves of both the Dec 03 and Jan 11 events were fairly bad positive busts, one had nothing and we had 6-10, the other I think maybe was forecasting 1-2 and we got 6-10

NYC/LGA/JFK all reported 1.8, that has to be first time all 3 ever had same amount

I don't think its quite that much, maybe 0.7 or so

It seems to me non coupling Ninas/Ninos are becoming more of a thing, 18-19, to some degree last year despite the fact it was a stronger Nino and now maybe this one.

Only case I recall of one that didn’t was maybe 6-8 years back NYC/LI was ground zero for days and last minute everything shifted to CNJ

The HRRR is supposed to overtake it but the HRRR has had its own issues from 36-48 which is why they’ve not extended it past that yet and the switch over has been delayed until further notice

Not sure I’ve seen a signal that strong to go into 8 since like 2014

The last 3 days of GEFS/GEPS today look like a better version of the 12/1-12/7 pattern with the ridge not as far to the east out west.

One thing is for sure, all ensembles today finally show a pattern beyond D12 that resembles the first 7 days of December more or less, albeit slightly better as ridge isn't displaced as far east. The question is does it even last til 1/15 before everything pulls back to a La Nina type pattern. I think the La Nina being nearly non existent helps somewhat

The problem is this is really our closest thing to a neutral ENSO following a Nino in 40 years outside of 92-93 and 03-04 and I'd almost label those warm neutral. You have to go back to 80-81 I think to see the closest thing to this year of cold neutral following a Nino so I am not sure if Jan/Feb progress as we'd expect

Not extremely cold, most of the cold was to the north in Canada as the pattern was zonal. The low was 19. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1981/us0213.php

We narrowly missed a monster in 1991. It was on all the "long range" models at the time which I believe were the UKMET/MRF/Euro and maybe all went to 120 or 144, the Euro was barely known to exist to most back then although it was out 2-3 years already. You can see here why the models were seeing something but the air mass was probably going to be an issue anyway. Al Roker and Nick Gregory were mentioning it a few days out here in NYC. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1991/us1223.php

Its been trying that all month but it just has been staying weak. I think there's a better chance its a non factor than the strong wave the GEFS suggests

GEFS has been too strong in recent weeks and having to correct weaker with the MJO consistently

The WAR is not really a presence this year as much, at least so far, so we may not see the so often west bump we've seen with every system the last few winters unless that changes.

BOS metro and south will probably still go into the 50s from 7-9pm or so. Its quite the gradient now from as close as Norwood on S-SW. BOS still not over 12kts but that should change by 430-5 at the latest but it probably cuts off sharply north of there. Could see BOS gust to 50kts but BVY/BED not come close to that

FRG gusted to 43kts. JFK just 35-38kt so far so definite indication strongest winds likely remain just E of Queens/Bklyn. If FRG is 43 that means coastal areas are probably close to 50kts already