SnowGoose69

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The American suite takes the MJO on a robust tour of the bad regions starting in early January.  This will have to be watched.  Ray's idea of January 20th and beyond seems to be gaining merit...that time frame will also match up with the SSW effects....assuming that actually comes to pass.

If you scroll through the 12Z GEPS/GEFS it seems already at 360-380 its reshuffling out west and the low is retrograding back towards the Aleutians with slight building in heights over W Canada and the block in E Canada lifting north...its like if you can just run it to 480 hours we'd be right back to an eastern trof.

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most of us will call it a -PNA as long as there is a trough the Western US. But it’s possible we may get a technically +PNA with a ridge over the top in portions of Canada. I have seen many times the official CPC site call it a +PNA when we had a trough in the West due to ridging in Canada. 

DT has torn into those calculations for years...he's shown how the -NAO stats can be wrong at times where you might technically have higher Greenland heights and lower Azore heights but its not really a -NAO, or certainly not one which impacts us  in any positive manner for snow or cold

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

if we get an anomalous block like that, the whole pattern evolution changes up

I am still suspect of any long duration -PNA pattern happening...depends largely on what the dynamics behind the change are but if its strictly based on the MJO going 4-5 I am far from sold it happens.  

If indeed we are gonna torch or go mild for a time around 1/8 onward it makes sense we could see a big event just prior to that as the 12Z Op shows...1/5-1/7 might be where something goes down

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It seems like we need luck these days to get the Pacific to relax. The amped up Pacific Jet in recent years keeps driving troughs into the Western US. The NYC 6”+ snowstorm composite taking in 14 event since the 09-10 winter snows now important it is to get the Pacific on our side. The primary feature necessary has been a strong 500 mb ridge over the Rockies out West. The secondary feature has been a Greenland block. 
 

NYC 6”+ snowstorm composite of the last 14 events since 09-10 winter.

 

It seems we no longer can get overrunning events with trofiness in the west.  Events like December 84/90 January 89/December 08 just do not happen anymore....it seems everything just wants to super amp or undergo massive phases in those good overrunning type setups so you just get way too much mid level torching vs long duration overrunning to start.   Many people mention how the coastal low track like January 87 has sort of vanished which is why people in CNY/CPA have struggled somewhat the last 10-15 years but the weaker/moderate SWFE seems to have sort of vanished too

26 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

yikes

 

I'll personally have this forum shutdown if this happens lol

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's true in January-you don't need a crazy cold airmass like you do in shoulder months like Dec/Mar

You can see that on the 12Z Op run...snow verbatim nearby or overhead in what is really a 2009-2010 type air mass.

Meanwhile plenty of cold air exists in the hemisphere...Beijing just got to -6...their previous coldest ever temp in December was -1

16 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

I think early January ends it Don.

It may end before that....it would have to be thread the needle or fortunate timing but there are chances for something to happen the final 10 days of the month

Underrated fact, the last few days the GFS is kind of getting owned by the CMC/Euro/ICON beyond 72 hours...we have legit not seen that since maybe the 2017-2018 winter on any consistent basis...probably something to do with more southern stream influence 

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

55 would bring down some limbs but if it's 40 or less no big deal with most  deciduous trees

If its from like 120-180 it can be a problem in this part of the country as very strong winds from that direction over 40-45 are less common, especially once just inland so the tree roots are not often as adjusted.  Strong winds between 270-060 usually do least damage...once outside of that even without leaves you'll usually see more damage begin, especially with wet ground.  I know in NJ we saw that in 85 with Gloria, we probably were gusting stronger from 340-020 but when we went 230-250 stuff started going down all over the place despite the speeds being less

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Very promising 

Unfortunately that wave may complete its cycle before we really see things reshuffle enough to get legit cold air in place and the pattern setup as we want.  Could be into the COD or even weakly into 3-4 by the time we reach 1/2-1/5 which is when I think we might have the Pac/Canada setup well.  It could be partially why though we saw things turn better overall in the post 12/20 period after ensembles abandoned ship for 2-3 days last week,

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

H5 improved for the follow up wave on the gfs

It almost had to, GFS was on an island not really digging behind the storm whereas every other model was 

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

This looks like shit:  

The airmass is gonna be puke as a whole, at least at 276.  But as you saw if you follow the Op run to 384 it gets colder as you more or less develop a -NAO/AO by that time

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

wow, just wow.

It may be correct as far as legit cold because even if the pattern flipped to a December 89 setup on 12/26 it would probably take Canada 10-15 days to cool off

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We had this discussion in Phillywx. Check out todays 12z euro vs December 94. 94-95 was pretty crap here in Philly outside one event in Feb where we just made on the cold side of a fast moving nor’easter.





.

At the time the 94-95 winter NAO average I think was the most positive on record...since the I think we have beaten it 1 or 2 times.  The real killer in 1994 was the stratosphere was frigid...it was noted by some mets at the time in Oct/Nov that we might be in major trouble for the winter as it was just crazy how cold it was.

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

5 inches of unexpected snow here in 2002

 

I was all over that one on the old forum.  Never believed for a minute snow wasn’t going to happen once that low closed off.  I was surprised how badly all the models missed it other than the GFS

34 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS at Day 16 v. Operational

Funny thing is we saw this often last winter the other way around.  GEFS tried making pattern favorable for us at a couple of points consistently D12-16 but Op runs mysteriously kept showing raging SERs and torches and sure enough those verified better strangely enough.  We were talking about this in the NYC forum yesterday, its somewhat odd.  I'd have to really dig in last year and now to see if ensembles were being skewed by 15-20% of members going severe one way

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

How is the -PDO not encouraging? -PDO/EL Nino combo's can be fine. Below are a list of winters which featured a -PDO during an EL Nino. Certainly, you can see one of the biggest differentiators in the hemispheric pattern is tied into whether blocking develops and how prominent blocking can become. 

 

It comes down to us not having a stupidly -PNA.  You can usually survive to about as bad as -1.25 or so from BOS south but if you consistently go below that your NAO could be -4 and it probably won't matter much

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and yes, the Pacific isn’t amazing there, but it is not nearly as prohibitive as it was last year. it should also improve as the MJO progresses east

As long as the PNA is not like -1.5 or worse and or the EPO is not raging positive you can usually do okay with a lousy or so-so Pacific and a -AO/NAO

8 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Looking at the next few weeks it looks basically normal through mid month. I don't see this blowtorch that some are posting about. And this is no 2015 or 1997

In the absence of a pronounced and persistent SE ridge you won't see something 2015 like.  97 maybe, Dec 97 relative to 2015 and some other recent Decembers was not THAT warm.  Something more like a December 99/14/18 is more likely in this pattern.  One of the interesting things myself and a couple other Mets discussed in recent days is how the Op GFS/GEFS are doing the inverse of what they did last winter.  Last winter we so often saw the GEFS look sort of decent days 7-12 yet the Op runs were torches.  This last few days we see the reverse often, semi ugly GEFS runs but Op runs that have shown periodic colder shots and chances.  Last winter more often than not those Op runs verified closer to reality.  Its possible that in this regime we are in enough ensemble members are being fooled to skew the mean too far one direction.

5 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

One thing I have noticed lately is how much this forum relies on the MJO. The MJO really is not the sole indicator and probabilities are fairly low with how it can be used to couple with snowstorms or even across the area. After the first week of December we look to have a -AO, -NAO, and a +PNA, but I have not seen that brought up once. Ski forums are rightly excited for how this season has gotten off and appears to look leading into the holidays. 

Yeah I have my doubts how much the MJO really matters when ENSO is in a moderate or strong regime.  It most definitely caused Dec 2015 to act like a Nina vs a Nino....in reality it acted like a February La Nina pattern, not so much a December one, but regardless a raging SER is unheard of in a mod or strong Nino December.   I am not sure if the MJO wave now or even 10 days from now is strong enough to really be causing the regime we will be in.  To me it looks more or less like your usual mod-strong Nino December where nobody is really cold but the Carolinas to FL average the coldest 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is close with the 2nd wave 

If anything happens it’s going to be with that second system but it’s going to have to work out perfectly. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The RMM charts aren’t telling the whole story. The actual forcing in the 4-7 regions is going to be very robust. This is a warmer than average forcing signal through at least December 20th or 25th. This is why the models keep correcting warmer the closer in time we get. My early guess is that this means another close to 40° or warmer December for NYC.

 

 

I am too lazy to dig that far but isn't phase 7 in Dec during Ninos quite a bit better than it is in neutral or Nina?

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i remember when we got snow in december from less than ideal patterns

12/84 and 12/90 have to be by far the best examples ever, maybe 12/24/98 too.  They all mostly occurred in the final week though.  I cannot really recall a good snow in a bad pattern earlier in the month though I'd rate both the 2003 events as occurring in semi mediocre setups, just timed well