SnowGoose69

The one positive is the GFS does generally own the other models in regards to NRN stream activity so perhaps its onto something there which has this phase/move up the coast more but I still lean closer to this being flatter though maybe not as flat as the UKMET

We used to have a rule forecasting for ATL and it still applies today as the GFS wedge resolution still is not great that if the GFS could see a wedge beyond 72 hours in ATL you were in big trouble. In this case it not only sees it but has it almost to the metro. The CMC which tends to have better resolution on that feature has the mixed precip back into Bama

I was surprised to see how low the totals ended up down in the MA. Felt for sure more 8-12s would happen

The Euro more or less has that same idea as does the UKMET because the whole thing shears out as it moves east

Newark now snowing

The 06Z euro is pretty much what I anticipated this storm would do which is just slide out and maybe not even be a major threat for Richmond or Raleigh. But a high percentage of the ensembles at least still want to have this come up the coast

Most locations began seeing snow once ceilings fell to 4000ft so certainly areas near Newark and just WSW of there are close now. It could be another half or to an hour before areas more east do

It happened in February 89, VA/DelMarva got like 20 inches in 7 days

I only see it through 96 but it looks like it might be very amped in the end possibly. Hard to tell through that point

I still say for the deep south the real event happens somewhere from 160-220 hours out, you can really see the potential there on tonight's GFS if anything ejects along the Gulf

When the NAO is strongly negative its not uncommon to see a solution from 4-5 days out more or less not change much

It was like 9.5 inches but it was cheap. Most of it fell off some fluke band that formed, most of the area saw way less

I could buy the 18Z GFS track from like 132 hours on in a pattern like this more so in March than now. I feel it would be hard as heck for that system to be able to climb up the coast vs go straight out to sea

The timing of the system is just ideally awful on the 18Z GFS for the wedge areas of GA/SC etc...there is a window where the storm could come out earlier or later and you get mostly snow or mostly rain but the timing is perfect where the high is beginning to slide into an area where it can wedge those regions for a severe ice storm

GFS with the bogus best of both worlds solution. Ice storm in ATL up through the Piedmont and somehow storm climbs the coast too

I agree for ATL metro there may be a better shot of snow next week if the system ejects in time. That said, the 12Z ECMWF solution might be a snowier event for ATL than the model depicts if it unfolded as shown as far as track

The 3k NAM/HRRR now are similar, 12K not as far north with a 3-5 hour period where snow can reach metro NYC. This tells me again it may be jet induced in some manner because there is no notable fgen showing up that far north. Still a question if there may be too much virga, the surface temp/dp spread is not too huge on models at least but have to saturate areas above that

I still think this is an AL/MS/GA snow event and thats basically it and I've felt that for a few days if it ejected, even there though the cold air largely escapes in time so might only be parts of TN/SC that really see notable snow from it.

In other news GEFS again trying to revert to a La Nina pattern, again the EPS/GEPS do not want to fully do it. If again in 5-6 days we start seeing the ensembles keeping the PNA positive again it'll be getting near time to declare this an inverse 18-19 or 23-24 where signs of whatever the background ENSO are keep showing in the long range and never happen

I'm not sure ATL sees snow out of this even if the low takes a 06Z Euro track, there just is not enough cold air in place really. The higher risk here is something slower and stronger forms allowing the high to slide over into NC more and they see a sleet/freezing rain event.

It really depends on the setup, if its a huge closed low south of Dallas there is a decent chance something like that is going to cut up into the OH Valley. It needs to be more of an overrunning type event for that rule to work. Most Atlanta snow storms either are a weak Gulf low which maybe starts near Houston or developing Miller As that form further east and weaker than normal like 1/87 or 12/2010

The HRRR concerns me a bit because despite the fact it sucked the last 2-3 months with seemingly everything, it HAS often seen these further north extensions of snow before, usually due to jet dynamics. I am not sure if thats the reason the HRRR is showing that signal or not but we do have the 150kt plus jet up here north of the system.

The UKMET pretty much shows that now, most of the snow is in VA

Everyone has to just hope there is a timing or strength error on that little vort lobe. Its a wildy chaotic piece of energy spinning around that massive low. I am actually surprised to see all models within reasonable agreement at the moment given how sensitive a piece it is and how it evolves quite a bit in the next 3 days. Given how strong this s/w is as it comes across the Oh Valley there would be a nasty late track bust on this if either that vort is weaker/late and it was not resolved til the final 24-36 hours.

KC will likely mix alot with pellets, WAA tends to be underdone, the 3k NAM sort of shows that happening there