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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    That may be possible. The wedge is lousy but the air mass in place and nearby is good. I still think ATL's snow event comes next week. Setup and position of high to me is way better.
  2. SnowGoose69
    I got a bunch of texts about the NAVGEM. It still does usually end up more progressive than other models. I think that was just an off run but its interesting, if it continues to be that amped up I've seen cases where that ends up being an indicator other models move north or west
  3. SnowGoose69
    I'd go mostly pellets ending as light FZRA in ATL with some snow at the start. I don't think due to the pattern over the Atlantic this is going to climb much more north. The one thing I would watch for is less shearing out of the system as it comes east. I do think the QPF values on the Euro for example are likely too low
  4. SnowGoose69
    30-40 miles probably. Assuming we see no north shift I'd say places 15-20 miles north of the north side of 285 would be mostly snow
  5. SnowGoose69
    Euro for ATL about what I've been expecting. SN briefly, then SNPL, then PL, then FZRA. The wedge may indeed break and they get to 34 but by then I think the event has ended anyway
  6. SnowGoose69
    It verifies usually just behind the Euro but thats 500 heights. It can show funny things for precip type/QPF so usually you want to use it just for track
  7. SnowGoose69
    I don't think the Euro will be as flat as the UKMET. The UKMET was a bit too flat with this last system too. Its also missing the snow across the MA region which I think happens with the vort/jet
  8. SnowGoose69
    Yeah ORD/DTW/MSP all pretty low on snow this winter so far. Obviously BOS too
  9. SnowGoose69
    Can keeps getting kicked. I am convinced we never see a sustained torch this winter at this point, maybe mid February onward finally there is a change but not happening consistently so far on anything in next 2 weeks
  10. SnowGoose69
    GGEM has more of a wedge over NGA/ATL than the RGEM which tells me typical RGEM long range issues, beyond 42-48 its not terribly reliable in a mixed precip event
  11. SnowGoose69
    This winter is so 1980s....NYC could be nickled and dimed to like 6-7 inches of snow by 1/10. We have not seen that in a long time
  12. SnowGoose69
    I felt the NAM/RGEM were not the best if you want snow in ATL. Both seemed to also move away from the wedge strength indicating it might just be a 1-2 hours of pellets/snow to begin and then right over to rain. We'll see if the Euro moves that way. RGEM/NAM just are not terribly reliable beyond 48, the NAM is wonky and the RGEM has a tendency to be overamped or too warm beyond 48.
  13. SnowGoose69
    The combo of that jet and the vort I think it snows for sure. I'd rather be us right now than SNE probably.
  14. SnowGoose69
    I think the Euro is too weak with the system as it goes from TX to GA. I'd go way bigger on QPF and dynamics overall. That might have some impact as to what happens down the line although probably the NRN stream differences make that meaningless anyway
  15. SnowGoose69
    The Euro is too wimpy IMO with the southern stream wave that crosses the Gulf. I don't buy that it'll just try to fizzle as it goes across SRN/GA and NRN FL. Not sure this makes a ton of difference in the end up here but I'd be hyping QPF alot more in TN/AL/MS/GA than the Euro shows.
  16. SnowGoose69
    Euro is just less amped up overall so snow falls further south than some of the other models. ATL would see a couple of inches before PL and FZRAPL on the Euro. They don't see much snow at all on the other models as it begins as FZRAPL
  17. SnowGoose69
    Not much different, it generates light snow due to some combo of the northern stream wave or the jet max overhead but its really not moved a ton since 12z. The Euro is probably too weak with the southern stream wave, its QPF amounts down in AL/GA/TN/MS seem too low to me in this setup
  18. SnowGoose69
    I've been on the Euro track train but I am somewhat worried because the GFS has owned the Euro/CMC before when the one piece thats been the key involves something to do with the northern stream and its the reverse if its southern stream involvement. Euro is usually right and GFS wrong there
  19. SnowGoose69
    The wedge likely would press well back W and S of ATL, the GFS resolution just won't see it at this range, once the NAM starts coming into range we should see that more
  20. SnowGoose69
    Well the EUROAI is at least not as big a swing and miss as the Op Euro so we have that going for us
  21. SnowGoose69
    The AVN would make everything a rain storm all the time, it was crazy. Back in 94 it had both the 2/11 and 1/26 events as rain 3 days out. It kept driving everything too far north when there was confluence of strong highs in place. It got better in the later years before it merged to the GFS
  22. SnowGoose69
    October 2002. The 93 blizzard the Euro/UKMET nailed it from like 144 hours out, the MSLP was too weak but they had like a 988mb low off the Delmarva. 96 everything was a near miss til Thursday then the Euro was the most west but nothing else was close til early Saturday
  23. SnowGoose69
    GEFS seems like all winter it wants to keep yanking things too far west. I see the GEPS is now more east today as well. I wonder if the NAO/AO just tank again and that results in a trof that extends to the east coast as the SER won't develop
  24. SnowGoose69
    High res models probably overplayed the banding but even back into the OH Valley/Midwest there was some underperforming in some spots and overperforming in others
  25. SnowGoose69
    Yeah probably. I said yesterday I'd be more likely to believe this climbs the coast in March than early January.
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