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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    It’s hard to believe there’d be FZRA that far south into Georgia if they didn’t see any precip until like 20Z. They’d be able to get warm enough and torch the DPs enough that the wet bulbs would be over 32
  2. SnowGoose69
    The fact it’s been trending this way for several runs tells me it may be onto something. I’ve not seen the NAM fail that severely at 36-42 hours too often. Beyond that is another story
  3. SnowGoose69
    The NAM now basically gives Atlanta nothing at all in the morning. I’m not sure it’s onto something or on it own planet
  4. SnowGoose69
    RGEM maybe did tick towards the NAM slightly, could be noise but there was a 20-25 mile shift N for a good portion of the run. Still have to watch this closely for areas on the edge
  5. SnowGoose69
    Yeah they continue to be way north with the WAA precip in AL/GA too though early in the run it did not look that way
  6. SnowGoose69
    Through 30 at least NAM looks like it won't be as N with precip into AL/GA this run
  7. SnowGoose69
    Just like 18-19 the Nino never came but long range models kept trying to bring it. Those PNA ensembles just 3-5 days ago unanimously had it going to -1 now they are mostly positive again
  8. SnowGoose69
    The New England forum has said before beyond 36 the GRAF is not too reliable but it does well at times inside of that.
  9. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is usually okay at 48-54 and not awful from 54-84. The 12km NAM can be really bad past 42-48 though the degree of badness can vary storm to storm. 3km NAM I trust only inside 30-36. Today for example the 3Km NAM at 48-60 over AL/GA/TN more resembles the RGEM/GFS than it down its own 12km counterpart which was very far north
  10. SnowGoose69
    Yeah that must be a model algorithm issue or something the sounding at that time is 32.2/23 at JFK with a NW wind
  11. SnowGoose69
    Most of TN and NRN GA closer to the TN border is the area I'd be most confident in now for snow amounts. Beginning to think even down close to ATL could see 2-3 inches though before it flips, especially if some type of mesoscale banding happens.
  12. SnowGoose69
    Euro now having the most snow here still is funny. Must be keying in more on that disturbance or jet than the other models are
  13. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is not nearly as far north as the NAM is
  14. SnowGoose69
    The NAM is probably too warm and amped. Prior to 36 hours there’s a tendency for that
  15. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR just is so bad with mid-level WAA type stuff I find it hard to believe they can totally dump the 3km NAM. I've seen cases of the HRRR at 24 showing snow when the 3km NAM has sleet 50 miles north of that
  16. SnowGoose69
    Once you get inside 72 hours of a setup that is not exactly simple the ICON can start doing funny things. Part of that is the other models just are way better than the ICON at that range. Its in the Day 4-7 period the ICON can often school the NAM at the end of its run or the GFS/CMC at times. Inside of that it will do odd stuff those models are just better at not falling into
  17. SnowGoose69
    Already some GEFS members are bailing on the -PNA, it was a unanimous move to -1 or so a few days back now its a split with some wanting to stay positive. I still think the pattern goes lousy at some stage but it might be mid or late February by the time it does
  18. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM/Euro now show ATL north might see a decent amount of snow/sleet before they flip to FZRA. The problem is they are so close to being dry slotted because the WAA precip shield more or less only runs about 30-40 miles south of ATL on northeast. So a shift of 30 miles and there may be next to no precip falling at all.
  19. SnowGoose69
    I think the 12Z Euro/EPS really faked everyone out as it joined the RGEM/UKMET that cycle and was north. 18Z went right back south, that 00Z UKMET snow map looks very close to the 18Z Euro. Still this is far enough out more surprises might happen
  20. SnowGoose69
    I think you need to wait til Thu AM to know. The 18Z Euro looked better for ATL, cannot put much stock in the GFS, NAM is out of range. I think once the NAM/RGEM are inside 48 we'd have a better idea. The flatter this is the more likely that area sees mainly snow but at same time they'd have hard time getting over 3-4 inches at best.
  21. SnowGoose69
    I find it funny the CMC/RGEM/UKMET all said I'm out tonight and did not run UKMET finally is running
  22. SnowGoose69
    Correct. This forum will be exploding at like 5am Friday over GA/SC that its going to start snowing any minute because the radar will be blossoming everywhere but it likely won't reach the ground for 2-3 hours after. The models only show precip when its expect to reach the ground
  23. SnowGoose69
    The funny thing is the 18Z Euro had more snow here than the 00Z GFS did
  24. SnowGoose69
    Usually that layer though from like 680-850 which shows as -1C with strong SW flow verifies way milder in the end. Often 1-2C milder
  25. SnowGoose69
    EURO AI went more OTS on this run
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