SnowGoose69

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t wrong hands over Euro. It made another NW move.. like itvaiesta does. It’s on an island . We’ll see

It never makes big run to run changes inside Day 4 really but it can incrementally go NW or SE repeatedly for like 6 cycles and next thing you know its moved 100 miles.  Sort of did that to us last storm down here in the 2-3 day range

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Shocking that dr no would say no

System is heavily NRN stream involved...GFS/CMC might school the Euro on this one til we get inside 90-100.  Vice versa looks like it may happen on Tuesday, tons of SRN stream activity and GFS now looks to be the most lost of any model with that one 

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

this is probably not the final solutions - since various METS warned to wait till the previous storm passes the EURO trending now toward the coast 

Inside 90 the Euro never makes large moves but it can just incrementally keep moving one direction...to me the most glaring thing is the RGEM/NAM agreeing somewhat past 60...that is not something we see too often, when you see that you have to be concerned the higher res models might be onto something.

12 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Where did all the cold go in the extended range?

Models went through a bit of a pullback yesterday delaying the reset but overnight ensembles sort of went back to things looking fairly good again by 1/27-1/28 after 1/21-1/26 are fairly warm...the problem is the pattern is largely just a cold dry/warm wet look outside of New England...the NAO is positive and the western ridge is too far west on the GEFS/GEPS...the EPS is better but the pattern still sort of screams that any big storm would cut N of the MA or SE US.  Regardless, there won't be trees blooming in February this year across the SE US for the first time a good 7-8 years probably

Ensembles overnight seem to have gone back to accelerating the return to a cool down again...problem is they do not agree on where the ridge is, GEFS too far west and we'd keep getting cutters but be cold...GEPS a bit better, EPS best...all have a +NAO

The GFS finally came around to the idea of some snow...I'd be cautious somewhat about the "finger" band of snow...often times models do not see the coastal stealing the show just yet at this range...so anything over 2 inches with that feature is unlikely even if some runs try to show crazy amounts from it

49 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Does Reggie have the same amp’d bias of nam at long range 

It did back when it was only ran out to 54 but I have found in the last few years thats less the case anymore....usually if the NAM has a semi wacky solution like it did at 12Z the RGEM will come out and look nothing like it...the fact they're both somewhat similar is interesting

The GFS is basically the only snowless run at 00Z...just goes totally coastal dominant, even the 18z Euro did not do that so as of now the chance to end the streak does live on.  If the Euro starts going bone dry even with the WAA then its probably down to 1/20 happening

The GFS did not take long to look totally different than literally every other model with an EC storm lol....through the UKIE with just the Euro to go its basically the only model lacking any of that precip associated with the vort getting north of the MA...that said the GEPS sorta does say the RGEM/CMC are out to lunch on that idea more or less.  I have not seen a ton of instances though in recent years where the RGEM/NAM being sort of similar at 84 has led to a solution not somewhat close to the idea...its usually 80-20 the NAM is different than the RGEM at that range

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is slightly further east than 12z.

I wonder if the cutter is messing with the models .

Any time you have two storms tracking in close proximity relatively speaking and one is significantly large or strong there’s a chance you will have some impact on the forecast of the 2nd event so it’s not out of the question at all 

13 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

18z euro looks like crap

Yeah its about as close to no change as you can get, it was better ever so slightly in some areas, worse in others but it likely would not have unfolded much different than 12z

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

It gave me 4”, but I got “zero point zero.”

At this range the Euro got schooled by the GFS if I remember right...it was pretty far east and cold, at least up in this area past 96 hours then was gradually coming west and milder.  I was concerned about a snowier solution 4-5 days out because the recent year normally amped Euro with any east coast storm in that 84-120 period was not amped relative to the CMC/GFS at that range

This thing is unlikely to heart attack us anyway, this will be a slow death in all likelihood if we do totally lose it.  Probably won't be til 36-48 til we can declare it dead due to the many moving parts 

Not totally surprised there are signs now the relaxation period could be maybe 2-3 days longer than ensembles showed a few days back and that was probably logical by the MJO progression.  I think it may be 1/28/-1/29 before things really turn back on after it moderates 

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Regarding the overall pattern: Latest GEFS MJO forecast is not what most would expect during a cold/wintry SE US period, strong in phases 4 and 5. Actually, the opposite wx tends to occur with this MJO. This illustrates well that it is just one factor and tells us only what often happens rather than anything even close to what always happens.

Its moving too fast.  We have had some discussions about this on twitter/forums recent days that historically waves that move fast in mod or greater ENSOs have reduced impact.  Also, the GEFS badly overdid the strength, all winter so far EPS has been too weak/GEFS too strong but this time the EPS  almost looks like its forecast 10 days back for late Jan may win...both have also been too slow moving the waves 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the UK.

It schooled every model on the MW storm today from 3-4 days out....had ORD getting sort of shafted and they sure are going to

44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GFS still isn't really like the ECMWF. the evolution is the same as the 00/06z runs, but it's just less amped. doesn't do what the ECWMF does with the trough

This was usual GFS southern stream heavy event shenanigans I think...the track or just whole organization to me should have been more NW than the Op had

One thing to note is the UKIE nailed this Midwest event from 4 days out...it tends to run hot and cold for months at a time...this is a largely different setup in a different part of the country but its worth noting its been the most amped now for probably 4-5 consecutive runs 

UKMET 987 S of central LI at 120...probably a ton of mixing with that solution.  Looks like it goes from Pensacola to there from 96-120

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

You never wanna be in the zone a week out. Also the models may not be handling what happens after the cutter well. 

More so in El Nino patterns or patterns with strong NATL blocking you'll tend to see changes from Day 5 inside than you otherwise would because the faster flow in other patterns is likely to mess things up but the big cutter yet to happen is likely something that will change the evolution 

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Op drop the tpv over nyc. If you wanted cold then that run is for You 

Yeah NYC would 100% be below 0 at 240 hours...that is about as good a setup as you get, air mass originates NNW and drops SSE and you have light NNW flow

That insane kicker feature in BC may have had something to do with the Euro completely losing this combined with more confluence but I'd just about bet the house the EPS is more amped...it might be by 20 miles but it won't be flatter

9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Did the energy in sw canada mess this up?

Yeah its highly possible it did to some degree

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The key piece here is the Southern vort near Texas on Monday. That has to get out ahead of the deepening trough coming down from the Plains. If that piece is too far out ahead it will get kicked OTS. If too slow we will have a cutter. This is far from a slam dunk. Right now it's a bit too far out ahead so the system deepens more after it passes us and closes off over Maine. First shot at a true Miller A this season.

I don't think you're getting any cutter from this but certainly something that tracks from say Nola to overhead NYC is possible which in essence is the sane result ptype wise as a cutter I guess 

LOL UKMET goes from New Orleans to Binghamton