SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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As good as the AI has been its been jumpy post 120. It keeps going more with the GFS idea of the later wave and the system digging for China. I am not sure I buy that. I think something between the UKMET/ICON where it ejects along the Gulf from TX vs coming up out of the oil rigs is more likely.
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I think all 4 are someone who lives just off the airport within 1 mile. BOS you'll notice never puts 4 groups or SNINCR remarks in METARs during snow events as those other airports do not either. If you see that you know they are not measuring there.
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No it was the 06. I believe ISP measures at the airport. As far as I know the only airports nationwide where the measuring is not done at the field are BOS/PHL/DTW/DEN. There may be others I am not aware of but those all got moved due to bad measuring and JFK was close to being moved too
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Hope the EURO AI is right. No QPF available but probably is like 2-5 inches. Its been so good the last month or two inside of 120. A bit erratic beyond that and I feel the Euro/EPS has beaten it from 120-180 but it was really the only model that accurately depicted the SRN US Event last week from days out
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I still like the idea right now of places like BHM/ATL being on the north end of this and it being more a central AL-GA-coastal SC NC event. But I am still wary of the fact that these days these cold air masses tend to be overdone on models at this range, if thats the case again something near or just south of this previous event is likely.
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CMC and ICON following the Eric Webb theory, he said he felt the boundary was gonna be slower to press east than modeled and hence we'd see a more bomby type low though he said risk the coast could be rainy if it was too slow
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The ICON honestly from D5-8 the last month has been better than the GFS. This may be a bit crazy for the moment though
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18Z Op Euro was gonna look nothing like the 18Z GFS if it ran past 144, thats for sure
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I think that event is another southern event. The SE forum was worried about the FZRA and it moving NW I said there's a better chance that event goes December 89 than trends NW but its still far enough out and the first event impacts that one. Depending how it evolves it might sharpen the trof too much in the East which would then prevent the wave from being able to eject from Texas across the Gulf. The trof needs to be more meridional from DFW-ATL or you typically cannot eject the system and it buries.
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I recall 88, the warm nose was totally missed. I also remember one in the early 90s, forecast was basically nothing and there was 5 inches at ATL. I think it was supposed to miss well to the south in Macon.
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I think you'd see sleet there. I recall the Feb 2014 event I was forecasting for the SE and we all thought it would be ZR but the air mass was just so cold aloft the warm nose did not verify as strong and that to me was more a wedging setup, this looks like a classic slider storm at the moment more so with a high located in a better spot than it was last week
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Its more likely given the setup in place this takes more of an 89 or 73 track than it does coming way NW. I'd lean more towards this being a storm from coastal NC back through SC/GA/AL/MS now than I would TN/NC/VA but its still far out
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It did from about 96-140 before the most recent upgrade. This winter season so far that bias seems to be gone
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It would be more snow or sleet probably given the quality of the air mass in place ahead of it, that degree of ZR makes no sense really in that setup taken literally
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The main idea for areas in the SE is to have the wave that hits New England be weak or develop late, if its early like the Euro has had or it just is too strong it will sharpen up the trof from Texas to the East Coast and hence you won't have the broader meridional look you see on the GFS to allow a storm to ride out of that area along the Gulf. The CMC develops the storm so late and far north it does not have a ton of impact on the orientation though it does not have the broad extended trof the GFS has
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Unfortunately its been bad in the long range this winter. the EPS has tended to verify better past D10 on the overall look
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It torched everywhere though after that. If I remember right even places like SLC/SEA had record warm Februarys in 2011. The entire pattern just went full blown 01-02
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
SnowGoose69 replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
There was also an ETAxx that bombed out everything massively -
NYC went 9 years without an 8 inch storm I think from 1984-1993, but some of that was bad luck and bad measuring. The 7.6 inches on 1/22/87 had to be wrong based on EWR/LGA and some other random mesoscale bad luck contributed to that
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
SnowGoose69 replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
I'm to the point where I feel the only way the pattern fully snaps and breaks down is the MJO races through 4-5-6 but its hard for me to believe this wave can continue at this amplitude that long -
Being so far west I would put them in the risk for now
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At minimum at the moment I like the idea of at least a close call near 160-180. The main two ways it can go sour is probably first wave is too strong or the ensuing cold push from the Plains/MW is too strong and presses farther south.
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CMC/ICON seem to argue the event at 180 is more TN Valley/CNTRL or NRN MA. Its possible if the cold push is stronger that might be a GA/SC event too but I'd lean now more to MS/AL/TN and NE front there. Might even be a tough ask for NC
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
SnowGoose69 replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east -
18Z Euro sure looks like it could produce some type of wave post 144..overall Euro/CMC have been flatter with the wave at 120-144, if that is not a cutter or something going into PA or WRN NY it increases the risk that the follow up would track offshore with the boundary more able to press SE
