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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The icon finds a way to erode a CAD signature in 2 hours with the Wednesday event. Even if the track happened you’d snow for longer than that
  2. SnowGoose69
    The icon basically finds a way to make the warmest solution overall from DC to NYC given the pattern. You couldn’t duplicate that in real life if you tried with the surface and upper features where they are
  3. SnowGoose69
    I meant the Monday event not the Wednesday one. W
  4. SnowGoose69
    Icon NW too. This has to be the first time in ages where inside 90 the Euro ended up not being too amped and other models moved towards it vs the other way around
  5. SnowGoose69
    The air mass just isn’t that good. It’ll be a very narrow corridor who gets hit with decent amounts Monday. If the air mass was even 3-4 degrees cooler in the 850-1000mb layer this would pretty much be a snow event across the board
  6. SnowGoose69
    You want the Monday event to be more amped. Even if it’s rain in most of the area. PSU in the MA forum went through ensembles on the GFS and Euro and found almost unanimously the members that are amped Monday have the best solutions for Wednesday. The only place which probably doesn’t want Monday to be amped are places like interior SNE such as Worcester
  7. SnowGoose69
    The SREFs at 21Z (if anyone uses them anymore) are quite a bit wetter than 15Z
  8. SnowGoose69
    Taken literally about 2.2 at LGA but the BL is marginal this is an event that you’d have to be in the perfect spot for accumulating snow. Monday will have a very small axis where the snow accumulates. Especially if if only ends up far enough NW for the immediate coast
  9. SnowGoose69
    The ICON at 18Z moved NW. I still think this is coming west. Maybe not to the degree the Op Euro was though
  10. SnowGoose69
    I have noticed the last 2-3 model cycles that no matter what model you use if it is more NW with wave one its been more classic for the coast and organized with wave 2. The weaker wave 1 runs have tended to be uglier with wave 2, more disjointed etc. There may be no correlation given the sample size is small but its been obvious mostly in the Euro which by far has been the most amped model for Monday.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Its inside the Euro amped bias window now and its also not a very strong/"phased" system which the Op has tended to go too strong on recent years . Given the trends the last 5-6 winters with these sort of systems I think the Euro may be correct on this one being NW
  12. SnowGoose69
    IMO a whiff is more likely than a cut. Forky and a few others feel otherwise however. I think even if it "cuts" the system will be somewhat of a shredded POS and any type of S/W or system slamming into that high, even if it tracks inland from the coast might produce significant from end snows
  13. SnowGoose69
    The difference this year is the -NAO is actually real in that over the next week it will be in place. I wouldn't be so sure the forecast on the EPS at 10-15 days of the -NAO are going to be fantasy as they have been most of the last decade.
  14. SnowGoose69
    the most shocking thing to me here was that Caribou never broke the record of 59F they set in February 1994 for the warmest meteorological winter day. I figured for sure that record had gotten broken in the last 25 years
  15. SnowGoose69
    I would be wary still of the euro being overamped at this range as it seems to be consistently the last 5 years. It was insanely overamped with tomorrow's evolution of this very system over OK/TX 3 days ago and has since gone the other way.
  16. SnowGoose69
    I've noticed the GFS when we have favorable patterns in the East for cold has always had a serious bias to tend to want to pull the ridge back west and dump cold air masses into the west or Plains Day 8-9 and beyond. Its been showing that the last few days consistently and the EPS wants no part of it.
  17. SnowGoose69
    The last 1-2 days the Op GFS has pretty consistently wanted to torch the east and have a SER. Very bizarre because most runs it’s ensembles have disagreed
  18. SnowGoose69
    There is no cold air in place ahead of it and when the system turns up the coast down by Georgia there’s a low in Quebec, not a high. You wouldn’t get snow with that system unless it was vertically stacked as it passed northeast of the area. In that case there would be an area of snow behind it
  19. SnowGoose69
    The 80s/90s stretch I buy somewhat into the transitional AMO theory. There was evidence that back in the last period when AMO was beginning the flip from cold to warm there were many positive AO/NAO winters as well though we don't have the stats back in that 1920-1935 period.
  20. SnowGoose69
    I think it definitely has something to do with the overall crap pattern the last few years and no -AO/NAO since 2011 though.
  21. SnowGoose69
    The GFS pattern really looks 1980s like with the cold shots that keep ejecting south out of eastern Canada
  22. SnowGoose69
    We are pretty much due for a winter where everyone forecasts wall to wall torch and it ends up like 93-94. I don’t see much reason to assume that happens this year but it’s going to be hard to duplicate last winter. This is sort of the opposite of going cold and snowy in 94-95 or 01-02 after the preceding winters sort of had a ton of things break in a favorable way. It’ll be hard to get the ratter this winter we had last year again
  23. SnowGoose69
    If I remember right in December 88 the positive NAO killed us. There was probably 3-4 decent storms that came out of the Gulf but weren’t able to make the turn up the coast
  24. SnowGoose69
    It was a semi neutral after a La Niña though. Historically those have been terrible and we had a couple of more after that too including 11-12
  25. SnowGoose69
    And NYC will probably get more snow than they got last winter anyway. It’s almost impossible to get that little snow again. By accident we will probably find a 6 inch event somewhere
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