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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    ICON is a hit because of what it does with the first storm in New England. Need that storm to keep amping. The more amped the better chance for everyone from my area down into the MA on the next
  2. SnowGoose69
    Notice too how much flatter it came in on the next storm as a result
  3. SnowGoose69
    This system is going to continue moving NW much as the little system from NYC south did for tomorrow. As a result I fully expect Sunday night and Monday will slowly tick south as well. It’s not gonna be enough to save areas along the coast from BOS down to NYC totally from rain but they’ll all probably see their biggest snow of the winter Sunday night and Monday.
  4. SnowGoose69
    The Euro has a tendency to be overamped beyond 96 since it’s upgrade 4 or so years ago
  5. SnowGoose69
    I’ve noticed very few from there in the absence of obs threads during major events. Then everyone comes out of the woodwork. I remember being amazed during the December 2017 storm how many metro Atlanta posters I saw in the obs thread because I mostly see NC/SC in here when I’m looking
  6. SnowGoose69
    It looks anafontal to me. I don’t know how often anafrontal snow occurs there but I’m sure it’s not a common setup
  7. SnowGoose69
    As I posted earlier today the El Niño is really more a neutral so there really isn’t any massive southern stream action. The ensembles are showing a bunch of Miller B storms for the most part. With the cold presses though something may time out right down there
  8. SnowGoose69
    If you go by the CPC classification we are not in an El Niño at all. They’ve basically had it as neutral for 6 weeks now
  9. SnowGoose69
    Only reason it seems too warm is system is squashed and takes forever to finally come north from Florida. Had the system in Texas ejected out front 108 there’s plenty of cold air across LA/MS/AL/GA if it came across at 132-144 and you also don’t see the subsequent ridging happen if system kicks out. Basically the whole setup in the SE is different if the system ejects timely
  10. SnowGoose69
    Ensemble mean sure looks to eject it better though not perfect
  11. SnowGoose69
    System at 120 over OK/TX doing exactly what you want at this range. Getting buried and squashed. Fully believe that wouldn’t happen and that system would continuee moving E along the gulf coast
  12. SnowGoose69
    The GFS will squash southern waves like that at this range. It loves the northern stream and hates the southern stream. Taken literally based on the pattern the Op Euro is too far to the east with the track anyway. That system would probably track further west if it dug that much into the Gulf
  13. SnowGoose69
    The CMC thinking that precip is rain over AL and GA made me laugh
  14. SnowGoose69
    It looks too NW flowy to me for anyone south of the mountains to snow. I know last winter Atlanta got a NW flow snow event but the flow above 850 was mostly SW. I don’t see that on this setup shown
  15. SnowGoose69
    I remember being there for the January 2010 storm and we were about 1-2 hours away from disaster and repeating 2007. Thankfully right as we were nearing it we flipped to sleet and avoided another mess. I think we got about 3/4 inch of ice between about 10am-1pm before we went over to sleet. Got 6-7, inches of snow the next day which was mostly unforecast outside of Mike Morgan who either got lucky or saw something nobody else did
  16. SnowGoose69
    18Z RGEM metogram has .70 snow for OKC
  17. SnowGoose69
    Is this their biggest storm since 2/15/03? I don’t recall them ever having a big one in 09-10 it felt they mixed in every one
  18. SnowGoose69
    LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock?
  19. SnowGoose69
    I definitely see potential in ATL Monday if the 12Z verified as shown (which it likely won't). There is a weak surface reflection off SAV along with the upper low coming across. Often times a weak surface reflection like that is all it takes to crank more moisture in than expected. I regularly saw that burn forecasters in OK often if you got a weak low to form in SE TX.
  20. SnowGoose69
    That is more due to the ULL feature not developing as well. I would not expect that to translate downstream assuming the surface low and WAA is decent
  21. SnowGoose69
    I remember that event because it was so easy to forecast for ATL bexause the wedge was so massive. There was zero doubt as to if it would get there. As it turned out it was so strong they saw mostly PL instead of FZRA
  22. SnowGoose69
    They’re usually only highly accurate in scenarios where you’re locked into a 10 to 1 or more event with no mixing and you’re comfortably below freezing through the event.
  23. SnowGoose69
    You usually can tell on soundings before models pick it up. If you have WSW or SW flow over 30kts in the 700-850 layer anywhere and aren’t at least -2C or colder it’s generally verifying above 0 in the end
  24. SnowGoose69
    ATL continues to survive by a nose. AHN looks in trouble though
  25. SnowGoose69
    The NAM seems to be playing hard what the main issue is with this event since the beginning. The high timing is 24 hours late for wedging and is generally too far north to ensure a true southern frozen event. If this system was 24 hours slower this is a massive winter storm down to Macon and most of NC is likely snow. If the high is 200 miles south this is all snow for most of northern AL and GA and north
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