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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Ridge out west too displaced to the east and not tall enough. The only case I know of recently where that pattern produced was 12/25/10. You need a nasty nasty west based block probably to get a DC to Boston snow event with that ridge that displaced east. 2/23/89 was somewhat close as well and we saw that largely failed for most areas other than the immediate coast
  2. SnowGoose69
    I remember thinking the models were going to blow it because I didn’t understand the disconnect up in NJ given how far south the whole transfer and development happened. In the end they did end up blowing how far north the surface low would get by NJ before it kicked east. This caused the CCB feature to impact the NYC metro more than any guidance suggested
  3. SnowGoose69
    As far as I know this was only the second storm on record where BGM and ALB recorded 20 plus inches and NYC also had 10 or more. 3/3/93 was the only other case
  4. SnowGoose69
    The Op GFS for some reason in -AO/NAO pattens has a tendency beyond 180 to love dumping trofs into the plains or west. We saw this back near 12/1-12/5 and it never came close to verifying
  5. SnowGoose69
    Both storms occurred with pretty lousy Pacific patterns but this was much more close to a southwest flow type event than that was
  6. SnowGoose69
    My hunch is the block led to the surface low taking a slightly faster east turn which led to areas down into NYC seeing more snow on the back side than expected
  7. SnowGoose69
    This would probably be the only snow event other than March 1993 where Albany and Binghamton saw over 2 feet and NYC reported double digits as well
  8. SnowGoose69
    11.3 I think. I doubt they got that but they would only need a small amount before the end of the month now to do it
  9. SnowGoose69
    Honestly if the dry punch didn’t come 2 hours early would have probably had 2-4 inches more
  10. SnowGoose69
    6.5 at NYC that’s more than all of last winter. Definitely seems low as usual off a LE of .87
  11. SnowGoose69
    They had 2.6 off .28 liquid at the time
  12. SnowGoose69
    I’ve been told Upton in the case of a ptype change usually has them measure out of time to ensure the correct measurement. We’ve seen cases however where they don’t do it or they get it badly wrong
  13. SnowGoose69
    When I went only 5-9 in my forecast it was because of mixing, not because of a dry slot 3-4 hours early. Might be right for wrong reason
  14. SnowGoose69
    Evidently not lol. The daily record is actually from like 1896 or something and is 7.0...their official site shows it wrong but the daily climo report showed the record of 7 at 440pm
  15. SnowGoose69
    They measured 2.6 on .28 at 7pm so yeah with that .15 the next hour they’re likely at 4 or so now
  16. SnowGoose69
    The 3KM NAM had them changing over a good 2 hours ago but they went over closer to RGEM forecast. I was surprised how high the forecast totals were there
  17. SnowGoose69
    NYC had .17 liquid this past hour
  18. SnowGoose69
    .11 liquid already. Looks like its been about 1 inch
  19. SnowGoose69
    .14 liquid at PHL so probably about 1.5 last hour
  20. SnowGoose69
    Like BOS PHL does not measure snow at the airport so we won't get hourly increments there. Might have gotten 2-3 this hour
  21. SnowGoose69
    As of 21Z the 12Z HDRPS is most accurate in MD with transition. HRRR is improving but still lags. 3km NAM barring an insane jump next hour will bust severely on its 22Z position of the change in PA
  22. SnowGoose69
    This delay from south to north shore is like the PDII storm where JFK snowed for 3-4 hours before LGA, albeit not as extreme
  23. SnowGoose69
    3km NAM continues to show a potentially bogus solution changing EWR/JFK to sleet at 01z. All the way to LGA and White Plains by 02Z then it miraculously falls back below Staten Island again. both of those won't happen. Either it changes at 01Z and never goes back or it doesnt change til 05-06
  24. SnowGoose69
    Always happens. These events the area north of a TTN-Sandy Hook line sees lighter echoes to start til the layers saturate.
  25. SnowGoose69
    I've heard of that maybe 2 times before in a synoptic snow storm. Usually 4-5 is about the most you can get
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