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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I’ve been told Upton in the case of a ptype change usually has them measure out of time to ensure the correct measurement. We’ve seen cases however where they don’t do it or they get it badly wrong
  2. SnowGoose69
    When I went only 5-9 in my forecast it was because of mixing, not because of a dry slot 3-4 hours early. Might be right for wrong reason
  3. SnowGoose69
    Evidently not lol. The daily record is actually from like 1896 or something and is 7.0...their official site shows it wrong but the daily climo report showed the record of 7 at 440pm
  4. SnowGoose69
    They measured 2.6 on .28 at 7pm so yeah with that .15 the next hour they’re likely at 4 or so now
  5. SnowGoose69
    The 3KM NAM had them changing over a good 2 hours ago but they went over closer to RGEM forecast. I was surprised how high the forecast totals were there
  6. SnowGoose69
    NYC had .17 liquid this past hour
  7. SnowGoose69
    .11 liquid already. Looks like its been about 1 inch
  8. SnowGoose69
    .14 liquid at PHL so probably about 1.5 last hour
  9. SnowGoose69
    Like BOS PHL does not measure snow at the airport so we won't get hourly increments there. Might have gotten 2-3 this hour
  10. SnowGoose69
    As of 21Z the 12Z HDRPS is most accurate in MD with transition. HRRR is improving but still lags. 3km NAM barring an insane jump next hour will bust severely on its 22Z position of the change in PA
  11. SnowGoose69
    This delay from south to north shore is like the PDII storm where JFK snowed for 3-4 hours before LGA, albeit not as extreme
  12. SnowGoose69
    3km NAM continues to show a potentially bogus solution changing EWR/JFK to sleet at 01z. All the way to LGA and White Plains by 02Z then it miraculously falls back below Staten Island again. both of those won't happen. Either it changes at 01Z and never goes back or it doesnt change til 05-06
  13. SnowGoose69
    Always happens. These events the area north of a TTN-Sandy Hook line sees lighter echoes to start til the layers saturate.
  14. SnowGoose69
    I've heard of that maybe 2 times before in a synoptic snow storm. Usually 4-5 is about the most you can get
  15. SnowGoose69
    FZRAPL at BWI. HRDPS/RGEM/3km NAM all about right. extrapolating the NAM was 30 mins too fast. the HRRR has no clue
  16. SnowGoose69
    As of 19Z 3km NAM continues to be a tad fast and HRRR way too slow with change. BWI should be going SNPL though by 1930Z so about 30-40 minutes behind the 3km NAM
  17. SnowGoose69
    Could be snowing in LGA/JFK by 1945-2000z but we have to see how the shield evolves as it gets north of Sandy Hook where there is always more dry air in the mid levels from the NE flow off land vs C-S NJ
  18. SnowGoose69
  19. SnowGoose69
    As of 130 the 3km NAM is too fast with the changeover line in MD and the HRRR is way too slow.
  20. SnowGoose69
    Its snowing/raining everywhere on observations now from near TTN south. TTN should be snowing within a few minutes
  21. SnowGoose69
    Watch this radar next 2 hours...that line should make it in PA north of BWI if the 3km NAM is right. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DOX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad
  22. SnowGoose69
    Watch CNTRL and NE MD as well as S PA near LNS from 18-20z. If the 3km NAM is right the sleet line is going to blast north through there
  23. SnowGoose69
    Are 850 temps 13C colder than water temps there? I'm not sure they are. It also seems to be developing in a manner its not associated with ocean effect
  24. SnowGoose69
    It has the look of being associated with some type of frontogenensis
  25. SnowGoose69
    Precip will reach ground faster in C-S NJ because flow aloft is more off water so less time to saturate
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