SnowGoose69

UKMET also south

RGEM is south too. This is still a pain of an event to forecast because if that initial WAA “finger” goes south this event will likely be mostly PL or FZRA

00Z NAM MOS guidance never turns winds east of 050 for LGA. They won’t get above freezing with that. And generally the winds will verify 010-020 north of guidance on these events

The NAM has long has a south bias with these systems. It’s not as bad as it once was but I’m not sure I’ve seen an SWFE where the NAM beyond 48 didn’t verify too far south

This should bounce back some starting tomorrow. This is unusually far S for an SWFE at the moment. If not for the crappy organization we would be pounded verbatim down here with this but by the time it organizes it’ll be mostly a CT event

Seems like it may have gotten a bit wetter too. Not necessarily here but the QPF signal seemed more Euro like and consistent this run

The EPS almost looks as if it’s south of the Op but it’s hard to tell on what I’m seeing

It actually resembles the UKMet/Euro right now more than the GFS/NAM do

The ICON resembles the Euro more than any other model than the UKMET. That is somewhat sad.

And rain for some reason. Just not seeing that happen though it has snow all day in NJ

QPF wise the 12Z Euro looked good but the mid level WAA looked early. LGA changes to PL by 23Z and gets maybe 1-2 inches before

UKMET looks similar to Euro in the large incremental time maps. It seems flatter but the UKMET has been a tad too flat with these beyond 36 the last 2 winters

If you looked at the setup at 156 you'd think a big storm was coming on the GFS but it does not pan out

The LOL GFS thinks this is all rain for the coast.

Given this is pretty weak if it did produce decent QPF there would likely be an extended period of snow. No question you'd have to watch the mid levels but this is not an event where you'd torch the mid levels after only a 1-2-3 hour period of snow

The question is if the overrunning aspect can produce when it bumps into the high. You can see on most guidance and ensembles there is a period where the disturbance produces less QPF over OH/PA then invigorates again. That is somewhat suspect unless we see that invigoration as a result of overrunning because the disturbance itself is not much to love. One thing to like is the Euro likes this system and has been running hot lately.

The Euro seems to love it and its been on fire so far this season so that is somewhat comforting for now but timing when these things pulse is nearly impossible. One of the CIPS analogs was 1/6/89 which had some similarities to this. It blew the doors off over the Midwest then sheared out and weakened over the OH Valley but when it slammed into the high that was over the west Atlantic and SE Canada the overrunning produced "big" snows across NE and down into NYC.

Not in this case. This thing is strung out and weak. I'm more concerned with QPF amounts than I am mid level WAA. This is one that if we had a stronger disturbance could have dropped solid snow amounts. But I am skeptical at the moment this may trend drier and drier.

This thing is too sheared. It does seem as if it goes into a period Sun night/early AM where it dampens somewhat then without much reinvigorating of the disturbance it spits out bigger QPf amounts again. Maybe a product of overrunning but I could see this thing just going to chit as we progress.

I think someone sees a nice period of snow with this because the initial surge is coming from a pretty strung out disturbance. I would be more worried at this point that we see QPF drop off then a warming trend because some of the guidance really shows this as a sheared mess.

All it really can do is prevent a massive SER from developing so you probably won’t see a 570dm ridge with a high of 75 as you might see if the AO and NAO were strongly positive

This is one of those events that ends up pissing people off have better snow climo and see someone south of them get pounded wherever that WAA axis sets up. You can see right now someone will get slammed by a fronto band somewhere in southern PA or central NJ while NYC up to BOS gets 1 inch

It’s not a La Niña so I don’t know why so many forecasts had a doom and gloom winter from NYC-DCA. Considering December was supposed to be the worst month and NYC could still get out of it with above normal snowfall (I think they only need 3 more inches to do that). I think many of the forecasts at least for them might bust. PHL/DCA remains to be seen

The Pac has to be extraordinarily bad for a -NAO/AO combo to not at least give you some chances. Generally as long as there isn’t a death vortex in the GOA a bad Pac can be cancelled out enough by the Atlantic. The Pac basically sucked in 10-11 even in December and January but it didn’t matter with the -NAO. We still did well. I should add also the Pac influence becomes less and less against an NAO/AO the later you get. We saw this in December 96 and I believe December 2012. Bad Pac was able to beat out the good AO, NAO or both but if you have the same thing going on in later January the Pac will lose more frequently

It’ll be a solid event if the system is weak and not too amped. Could see a 3-6 inch event before the turnover in that case