SnowGoose69

This is also one of the deepest Highs in place ahead of an overrunning event since basically 11/2018. All events since have more or less flipped to sleet immediately due to the air mass being horrible. We are still 2 days though from being able to seriously look at this

In general for both summer and winter the magical flip period if you’ve been stuck in one sort of regime is 7/25 or 1/25. If you don’t see it by then it rarely happens. We’ve seen it on the flip side with summer in years such as 2001 or 2002 but look at 2000 and 2003. 2003 finally got warm around 8/10 or so but it lasted all of 10 days and we flipped right back again. It’s why once you reach 2/1-2/5 and have seen so big change it’s rarely coming and if you do it’s brief

In the absence of strong ENSO the Pac state from December has a tendency to resurface in February. Notice how last two winters the chit pattern from most of December with the SE ridge dominated February as well. It doesn’t necessarily mean the resultant weather will be the same because you could have a GOA low in Dec/Feb but in Feb the NAO is negative and mitigates it. That said this December the Pac was pretty good first 18 days of month. If we revert back to that idea in February we won’t do too poorly.

This is one of those cases where S and W of NYC can do better. It’s not a true transfer but basically the vort gives way to a coastal low so there’s noticeably as you can tell a dead period from like TTN up to middle of CT before the coastal ramps up. A big reason the best looks are coming from the globals such as the UKMET/GFS is probably because they’re overdoing the QPF look in that corridor where as the mesos know there won’t be much there

03Z SREFs wetter again for Tues night. Euro did not make much of a move NW though it did come back from its 18Z run

UKMET also came west for Tues night. Still a miss though except far eastern LI

Its taking quite some time to reach the ground but someone might get a quick inch

If it ends up being a continuing trend this could be a decent event but we would continued ticks here for the next 36 hours.

I expected the NW tick back but I'm still not sold we see anything much further with it.

Flow is way too fast. Better chance this corrects back east I think

If you back 5-7 days ago and check the ECMWF MJO forecasts you can see why they are so unpredictable. The only thing it still appears to have the same is that it goes to 4-5 but how it gets there has become delayed and it goes through 3 now first. It just tells you anything beyond Day 7 on those forecasts is iffy.

Ultimately it’ll probably come down to the MJO from 1/20 or 1/25 onward. If it goes back through 4-5-6 this winter is done. If it stays quiet it could possibly be a big 6-8 week period

The pattern is pretty active which may prevent there being absurd warm anomalies this month, even for places in the SE US because as long as we keep getting systems ejecting out of that trof we are going to continue having FROPAs in the East. Even if they’re inducing modified Pac air it doesn’t seem at any point we see a sustained SER with bright sunshine for days on end

I’m beginning to wonder if we need a major La Niña or El Niño event to shuffle the pacific SSTS so that we don’t have this same issue with the MJO winter after winter for the foreseeable future

It develops the system way too late. The 500 track though isn’t bad

Haha....have you seen the NAO the last 6-7 years in March and April?

There’s no way the pattern will stay that warm for that long. My guess is by 2/1 it flips. TBH we may be better off just getting that miserable pattern in mid to late January vs what’s happened last few years where a massive SE ridge has occurred in February

The Euro has been trending the last 2 days towards killing that wave quickly. It’s probably better for us than it going high amplitude into 6 and maybe taking forever to get to 7 or just spending forever in 5 and 6

Oh yes that I knew. The one you mentioned though from 91-92 is the one I can’t recall the day but distinctly remember it busting.

I can’t recall what day it was but I vaguely remember this one. I want to say it was a Friday afternoon or evening in February or March and have no recollection of why it busted. We were supposed to get a decent amount up here too

While I believe it goes into 4/5 I am not sure on the amplitude. The tendency the last month or two has been for it to want to be lower amplitude than show 10-20 days out.

Yeah February and March could be big months. January I would say is tossed at this stage but subject to change. The MJO looks to go into 4-5 and maybe 6 starting 1/7. That means probably no major effect from it til 1/12-1/14. Thereafter it’s at least 15 days til it either goes into the COD or into 7 so I would toss the remaining 2 weeks of the month and then see what happens thereafter. It remains possible that from 1/6 til the 12th or 14th some type of snow event could occur

The only way that storm doesn’t cut in that pattern is if the pattern is fluid and transient. There’s been a few storms over the years (never KUs because of the speed) that have run over 40-70 in a setup such as that. They usually occur right at the start of the cold outbreak which as we know is rare. In general when you see a pattern shift, even a brief one the snow event usually occurs several days or more in. Then immediately after the storm the ridge out west breaks down again it moves into the plains and we go right back to warm. If that ridge holds there for 7-10 days behind the storm and the pattern isn’t transient that thing cuts most of the time

If the Euro having that insane 4-5 passage is right this winter could very well be over. It basically starts it around 1/12. So figure you’re toast through 2/1 minimum if it’s that strong of a wave. My hunch though is that it won’t verify anything like that

The main hope now is that the ECMWF MJO forecast is wrong because if it’s not we might have a window 1/8-1/20 and then it’s gonna be over for 2-3 weeks again