Jump to content

SnowGoose69

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,147

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    UKMET also came west for Tues night. Still a miss though except far eastern LI
  2. SnowGoose69
    UKMET west also
  3. SnowGoose69
    Its taking quite some time to reach the ground but someone might get a quick inch
  4. SnowGoose69
    If it ends up being a continuing trend this could be a decent event but we would continued ticks here for the next 36 hours.
  5. SnowGoose69
    RGEM at 48 looks fairly close to NAM idea.
  6. SnowGoose69
    The NAM got owned with this event. Euro seems to have had best handle on that 05-09Z window for a couple of days.
  7. SnowGoose69
    Not that it means much but the NAM got schooled tonight down here. We probably see a 3-4 hour period of light snow 06-09z and the NAM til this run wanted no part of it.
  8. SnowGoose69
    I expected the NW tick back but I'm still not sold we see anything much further with it.
  9. SnowGoose69
    It’s gonna come back NW I think but probably not enough outside of far eastern areas of Long Island and Mass
  10. SnowGoose69
    Flow is way too fast. Better chance this corrects back east I think
  11. SnowGoose69
    If you back 5-7 days ago and check the ECMWF MJO forecasts you can see why they are so unpredictable. The only thing it still appears to have the same is that it goes to 4-5 but how it gets there has become delayed and it goes through 3 now first. It just tells you anything beyond Day 7 on those forecasts is iffy.
  12. SnowGoose69
    Ultimately it’ll probably come down to the MJO from 1/20 or 1/25 onward. If it goes back through 4-5-6 this winter is done. If it stays quiet it could possibly be a big 6-8 week period
  13. SnowGoose69
    The pattern is pretty active which may prevent there being absurd warm anomalies this month, even for places in the SE US because as long as we keep getting systems ejecting out of that trof we are going to continue having FROPAs in the East. Even if they’re inducing modified Pac air it doesn’t seem at any point we see a sustained SER with bright sunshine for days on end
  14. SnowGoose69
    I’m beginning to wonder if we need a major La Niña or El Niño event to shuffle the pacific SSTS so that we don’t have this same issue with the MJO winter after winter for the foreseeable future
  15. SnowGoose69
    It develops the system way too late. The 500 track though isn’t bad
  16. SnowGoose69
    It basically is the same idea as the Euro. It just develops everything 18-30 hours later
  17. SnowGoose69
    TBH based off thickness alone I have no idea how all that precip after 81 isn’t snow everywhere. I wouldn’t get into temps this far out but in that sort of setup with a low that deep everyone west of it is snowing
  18. SnowGoose69
    Right as I was wondering to myself if Gary Bettman is okay. He really looked bad today
  19. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR just seems awful beyond 8 hours. Extending it to 60 seems nuts
  20. SnowGoose69
    I don’t know but it always had a severe west bias and when it didn’t for the January 2014 bust I knew we was in trouble
  21. SnowGoose69
    The scary thing is the intention by NCEP to basically NGM the NAM from here on out and do no further updates and then discontinue it when the GFS is considered good enough to be the only US model. My feeling is they’ll have to reconsider in 3-5 years when things aren’t going as planned
  22. SnowGoose69
    The GFS hasn’t necessarily worsened but in the last 8-10 years there’s been so much advancement in the high res models that it’s just more or less useless now. It didn’t seem as bad in 2009 or 2012 because the other models weren’t as good or didn’t exist
  23. SnowGoose69
    The Op Euro has been way better so far this cold season on not having an amped bias from 84-120. I believe it had an upgrade in April or May and that seems to maybe have fixed that issue
  24. SnowGoose69
    It feel as if from 36-90 or so it does. Beyond that I remember something telling me that from 96-120 if it is in lock step agreement with the GFS or Euro it’s generally an indicator the GFS/Euro idea are wrong and that they’ll undergo some type of huge change in track/evolution in the next day because the NavGEM just is that bad at that range it means the GFS/Euro idea have to be wrong too
  25. SnowGoose69
    It can be useful at times for trend ideas. I haven’t looked at it today but if it was snowing a complete whiff today for the entire NE you could argue there’s a better chance this ticks south vs if it’s in dead agreement with the Euro it could mean this will end up congrats Ottawa
×
×
  • Create New...