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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The EPS is basically a coin flip. It doesn’t look bad but or great but you can see how a subtle shift one way or the other can turn it into a fairly great pattern or a catastrophe
  2. SnowGoose69
    It was definitely consistent for 3-4 days a week to 10 days ago for this coming week and then it 180’d. I think we need to see it get inside day 10 to be confident
  3. SnowGoose69
    It’s fairly rare to see the AK vortex setup in mid or late winter though. That is more commonly a feature that comes in November or December and then never leaves. They tend to be more transient when they develop later
  4. SnowGoose69
    One other time. In either very late November or early December there was a stretch of 2-3 days where models looked very good in the 11-15 and then they immediately flipped to show the warm shift in mid December.
  5. SnowGoose69
    The forecast was 1-2 changing to rain in January 87 if I remember right.
  6. SnowGoose69
    That was likely due to the bad forecast. A ton of people will take off, take public transport, work from home if a snow event is forecast. When it’s not it gets ugly because everyone goes in and then is driving in it. 12/05/03 and 1/2011 were bad too when we got those unforecast bad front ends of the storms
  7. SnowGoose69
    I think the 1950s had a bunch of near misses too
  8. SnowGoose69
    And 6.6 short of cracking out of top 10 least snowiest winters
  9. SnowGoose69
    I get a feeling we will get a good period in February into March with a big storm. Don’t know why I think that. I just think there's enough Niñoish type background state to pull it off
  10. SnowGoose69
    They measure at 7. We will know soon if the compaction got them. They should have at least 2.2-2.3
  11. SnowGoose69
    Euro basically got owned again. It has 5 inches in some parts of NE NJ
  12. SnowGoose69
    I can’t recall any case where we saw 2-3 inch amounts in the metro with a track like this. The high was just well timed. It wasn’t even in a great spot. The storm just arrived with the high and the airmass in place.
  13. SnowGoose69
    With that 1.3 Central Park can no longer beat 72-73 01-02 or 18-19. 31-31 and 97-98 can also fall today if they get 1.5 more
  14. SnowGoose69
    That’s higher than I thought they’d record. I believe they only reported 0.08 liquid so the ratios were fairly high
  15. SnowGoose69
    You can already see the 3km NAM is going to bust on sleet. It had it further east than it is by 22Z
  16. SnowGoose69
    They should be out by 445 on the climo reports. I expect all 4 stations to be somewhere between 0.8-1.5 as of 430
  17. SnowGoose69
    The CT Valley river dry nose is notorious for being an issue here in the metro and eastern NJ. It’s not common to see it on these events though because the flow isn’t NE. This is likely just weakening of the forcing. The CT river dry nose is most notable early on in coastal storms or S-N moving systems which have a NE drainage flow ahead of them. You’ll see places like ISP/MMU snowing like crazy while between it can take 2 hours or more to get solid snow growth and decent rates though the radar may look good. 12/19/09 saw this happen
  18. SnowGoose69
    The CFS and Euro/GFS are both likely wrong to an extent on the MJO. If you take the tendencies of all of them my guess is it goes through 7 harder. Spends more time in the middle. And exits out into 6. I don’t think a trajectory through 8 occurs nor does a reemergence into 4 or 5
  19. SnowGoose69
    The oddest thing is if you looked at 500mb you’d never guess that was the resultant anomaly
  20. SnowGoose69
    Yeah you would need some sort of banding features to get amounts of 6 inches in NYC here I believe. This is a fairly unusual setup. I don’t recall any case of a primary this strong going into the lakes giving us even 3-4 inches
  21. SnowGoose69
    Upton actually never changes LGA over to all rain they have RASN from 00-03Z and it ends
  22. SnowGoose69
    My hunch is this event will have minimal sleet if any
  23. SnowGoose69
    Yeah this is a huge factor. It really does make a big difference. It’s also not overly strong. It can screw up snow ratios though as someone else here pointed out
  24. SnowGoose69
    The NAM has somewhat of a dry slot behind that initial finger of WAA precip. Other models don’t really have that. The handling of the jet dynamics could be why as I said has been pointed out in the MA forum this week. I’ve seen models like to show that dry nose before in that spot behind that WAA finger and usually it doesn’t happen. You see the whole area tend to back build and then your shield from the main low arrives soon after. That said I wouldn’t be too confident NYC metro sees anything over 3-4
  25. SnowGoose69
    The EPS might be wrong on the MJO but believe me it isn’t THAT wrong!!! I could see us going longer in 7 and maybe edging into 8 before going nil and re-emerging to 6 but that CFS forecast isn’t going to verify
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