SnowGoose69

They'll get sleeted to death there in the end probably. I checked the IAH/MSY airport snow records and basically nothing of this magnitude has ever happened before. I think more mid level WAA could sneak in there. Baton Rouge maybe, they've had 6-7 inch storms before

I still think something happens there, the strong 250mb jet on the N side could also generate snow. I'd start watching the HRRR at the end of its runs. It has tended to do a good job seeing these WAA induced areas of snow that can occur as a result of that feature and it will see them at 48 hours. If the 18Z or 00Z HRRR generate snow into MS/AL north of the other models that would be an indicator of it

The HRRR/06Z Euro are only models that seem to be close at the moment....all show little activity from NYC-E til 2130z or so

The HREF looks overdone. To me the metro will get 99% of their snow from 23-02Z probably, unless somewhere there are 2 inch an hour rates 6-7 would be hard to reach

The ICON finally got a clue this run and looks similar over GA/SC to others

The main problem I see now is DPs/Ts higher than modeled. for example LGA 40/30, both NAM/GFS had 36/27 or so. It may mean any snow from 18-21Z or so won't do a whole lot but not sure it matters a ton as 22-02 was probably when the meaningful rates were coming anyway

I always use them in situations like this to gauge evaporative cooling potential. One thing is for sure early, the 36/27 at LGA at 15Z won't be right, its 40/30 now

The January 2018 and January 2014 storms at this range looked similar. This is actually an extremely close match to 14, 18 not quite as much as that had more NW flow and was a weaker system down along the Gulf which fooled so many of us but we were warned on forecasts for the AL/GA region to watch out because there was SW flow in the mid-levels and the models could be underdoing amounts. sure enough inside 36 hours everything started expanding the snow area and parts of S ATL had 4 inches with it.

The HRRR can suck on systems like this where its organizing/developing very late and in close proximity to an area. I'd still stick with there being risk of more 5s and 6s vs 3s and 4s

Surprised they put a WSW out THAT far N in GA. I do think maybe the ATL metro could see an inch as the WAA snow area in these often ends up extending more N than models show at this range but the northern tier of counties in the watch seems a bit far north

The HREF mean is now 4-6 everywhere with 6-8s N shore of LI and parts of NW NJ the Hudson Valley

These events always are this way. The post MetLife stadium Super Bowl storm in 2014 I think was mid or high 40s before and I know the April event maybe 5-6 years ago was too

The Euro just totally owned every model on the storm up here for tomorrow so just keep hoping its run continues down your way on this one. Oddly enough the RGEM/CMC agrees with it for this storm though and that was the model that just got beat the worst up here for tomorrow

The ICON does wacky stuff once you're inside like 72. I use it sometimes to get a sense of where other models are at from 72-144 or so and it can outperform the GFS/CMC on the end result there often but close in it can be all over.

I thought the NWS having watches out back into PA and parts of NY yesterday was gutsy based off more or less only 1 model or 2. The BGM/ALY headlines look okay now to me as far as advisory/warning but SCE and Mt Holly may be a bit generous for sure on some counties in warnings

The DT rule is really in effect with this storm, he has always talked about how fast movers get overdone by many mesos on snow amounts. I really doubt we see many amounts outside of elevated areas where this enhanced lift of more than 7-8.

Same issue as the 12/5/03 storm, models missed a subtle vort that triggered a big area of snow well in advance of the surface low so we ended up like 6-8 inches higher than the forecast in both that storm and 1/2011

It was a rare case of a busted Miller A. By the late 80s models tended to handle big storms like that coming from the Gulf well but in this case they did not see the banding nor that the high over Canada was going to hold the cold air in longer, they all showed winds going 090-110 and we stayed 060. It was Miller Bs that models continued to suck with even into the later 90s though by 95-96 once we had the ETA and the Euro Miller B busts fell off quite a bit. The final bad one I recall was in February 97 there were watches out everywhere and within 1-2 model cycles they were dropped. Still an improvement from 87 when it would have taken til the day of the event to realize we were cooked.

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2025011812&map=thbCOOP72 Lots of 5-7s just inland, this one has more a surface reflection vs an anafrontal appearance so totals may be bigger. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0202.php

10am-5pm pretty much, dry slotted after that. JFK E flipped to sleet or rain briefly maybe the last 1-2 hours but LGA/EWR never did

Yeah, we wish. 2/2-3/85 is now the closest match I see

I think what he did this year was an aberration honestly, same story with Darnold as we already saw

I guess they were too far south in January 92. There were some 6-8 inch amounts near FFC-MCN in that. I still think for biggest snows right now I’d want to be a hair north of them

My money is that sucker is gonna tick north and it won’t happen. But some areas near PNS have had 3-4 before like 89/93. That storm is very similar and similar pattern to 1/27/14 which at this range was located same place and moved north gradually from there. Pattern doesn’t look as suppressive to me as 89/73

It did well last week in the SE US event but it also was having to tick NW late for the final 24-36, it was just that the NAM was so bad most did not realize it. It may be having the same progressive bias down there again with this next one as its been ticking N now the last 2-3 runs