SnowGoose69

I want to say those are "Normalized" or re-calculated in some way. I've seen the -1.3 mentioned by others too.

Seems the EPS/GEFS today may have killed it more too. I'm not sure if that is why today we've seen a trend towards less ridging in the E after D10 somewhat. A less potent run through 6 late and 7 might result in that.

925 winds for the metro are 44-49kts from 03-11z or so, sustained on MOS is around 30...if this was day time I'd be worried about mixing to 900 or 875 with gusts of 50kts but I think we might be only 42-44

Thankfully due to La Nina strength we can probably toss both 88 and 99. I think both those years also had W QBOs and W or CNTRL based La Ninas

Good thing peak winds at 900-925 occur when its dark, if this came through 12-18 hours later I think some gusts over 50 would be possible.

The ACCESS BOM from Australia when I checked yesterday argued it does not really make it heavily into 7 and definitely not 8. I have found that model sometimes is better than the EPS/GEFS for the MJO in the longer range

Yeah problem still is the subsurface is concerning. I am not confident this thing gets over like -0.6

As I said last winter and what mostly transpired, the MJO can be in bad phases as long as its weak or just mostly nonexistent which was the case last winter most of the time. You just don't want it strongly in 3-4-5 all winter

Jan/Feb 90 was the highest AO/NAO ever I think other than Jan/Feb 1989. I still think its the record now though 2018 or 2020 may have surpassed it. In general there's been tendencies near the solar max if you have a persistently -AO/NAO in Nov/Dec it can be a problematic issue in Jan/Feb where it swings wildly to be strongly positive. We saw this a bit in 2000-01 too, the AO remained negative in Jan/Feb but the NAO went significantly positive the remainder of the winter.

There was just a ton of bad luck. It wasn’t so much the winter patterns were bad outside of 82-83 84-85 and 88-89. Even 89-90 December was decent it was just that everything got suppressed

I guess the snow total was skewed by the 4/1 event. Overall it was a strange winter because indice wise it was good in December and January. There was just no snow or it was all inland

The 90s were odd depending where you were. 92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters. 93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas. At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though

Its December depiction makes sense to me, not sure about Jan/Feb. The Feb anomaly does not look much like any recent Nina or neutral composite we've seen. It looks more like a raging progressive Pac jet type pattern. If that type of setup verified I think the SER would be much stronger in the east

2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs. Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.

Yeah I think 2018 was the year where in southeast parts of the US all the trees opened and there was major damage from frosts in March and April

Last winter the GEFS tended for the most part to be too strong though. It had done much better across 22-23 23-24 but was definitely overdone last winter.

The last minute or two I think they are partially in the eye. Conditions seemed to have improved a bit

Definitely picked up as soon as winds flipped more NW from the ENE

Strongest winds at Montego Bay might be behind the eye once the winds come more W-SW

Moving more E of N now, MBJ could possibly miss the west eye wall if it kept moving more NE

Likely just outside the eyewall but those winds still look maybe 70-90mph

Was just thinking he might be in that eye for a bit, should be close to fully clear in it

Some claimed it under went a "MERC" this morning where the two eyewalls merged but did not have the typical replacement. Not sure if thats a real thing or not

Bad tracks not just for the population but those both hit resort areas hard. Most of them are on the western 1/4 of the island so thats a loss of a big portion of their economy for this winter probably

Watch the next 2 weeks. GEFS pulling the Ole 21-22/22-23/23-24 thing D12 plus right now where it says nahhh you don't to the GEPS/EPS regarding the Pacific. It did that at times last winter too but due to the poleward AK ridge it was wrong almost every if not every time. This could give us some idea where this winter is going, at least early if the GEPS/EPS end up winning this one if it remains a persistent difference in the models the next few days. I will say that over the last 10 days or so all of the ensembles have somewhat lost the battle as we are definitely still much more GOA/AK vortex heavy than we were on their forecasts back 10 days ago, so they certainly rushed the change.