SnowGoose69

RhodyRick was my favorite poster on Eastern, he would just troll saying every storm would be rain

All models now basically showing lite versions of 12/2003 and 1/2011. We need to hope round 1 does as well as it did in both those storms. Hint...it won't

Don’t underrate the impact this accumulation may have on tomorrow. At least in areas that got snow today. It could definitely keep things 1-2 degrees cooler overnight which can be a factor tomorrow in a setup like this

Given they probably will measure at 1pm a half inch or slightly over.

Its accumulating on the grass now in Central Park

Still looks concerning that W Canada may get wiped out again by the EPO shift though I think its just a brief one but despite the end of ensembles showing a +PNA look again its pretty mild since Canada gets torched the last few days of the month by that transitional period. Could be 2/5 or 2/7 before we see things be cold enough and I am just not sure how much longer thereafter we can hold this pattern. Its logically going to go Nina February at some stage. I felt by 2/10 but maybe its later.

Yeah, no high to the north as I said. I don't really love this setup but I do think that the air mass might be just cold enough that we get accumulation. I'd just go lower than snow maps though. I don't think anyone is seeing 5 or 6 inches.

GFS is likely too amped with the storm idea. I am more worried about suppression problems overall than being too far north

By far the Euro idea for today is working out the best right now. Most of the mesos were just way too far west with this snow. The RGEM was fairly good too.

Not nearly the same setup but reminded me of this one below. 2/8/97. I was watching Mark Messier blow the Islanders up in an afternoon game. Was like 32-34 all day. NYC got around 3 inches in the end but it was basically a clipped coastal type setup. Nowhere near the same type of storm as this though. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1997/us0209.php

Yeah makes no sense at all for the west to be torching like this in this type of winter. But as we have said in here we've seen the east torch in El Nino setups recently in oddball configurations. Dec 2015 was one, that was likely more due to the MJO being record strength in phase 5 or 6 though.

It looks like what happens on the ensembles today is you briefly get a +EPO but it immediately tries to return back to a +PNA pattern again, you'd torch Canada so would take a week or so for it to get colder again

No, FNMOC site was being hacked/etc so they made it access only internally I think

I am surprised since the Darnold nagging oblique or whatever thing came out that the line on that game has not moved.

I think the areas where a big NW move may happen are way down south in like GA/SC. And I am not even sure I'd call it a NW move, its more the H5 has argued the QPF is being underdone on the NW edge down there which is why at times the RRFS and some other models have shown snow back to like ATL/GSP. I don't really see big changes likely up the coast.

No high in SE Canada is still a big issue here as I said a few days ago.

The Euro ideas down in SC/GA aloft have never budged much the last 48 hours...it was always a bit too dry down there as were many other models. I have been on the train of be wary in GA/SC even back as far as ATL/GSP to see this thing make a late push back NW. Eric Webb has been pumping that idea on X too.

The EuroAI QPF extensiveness just looks suspect to me

Kind of what my thoughts have been the last week. I said I like next week possibly for something but then I think 1/24-2/1 or so its SE/MA thing and then 2/1-2/10 is when another window opens here. I am not buying the breakdown at the end of ensembles yet. They are likely right on the idea but has been the case all winter they likely are 7-10 days too fast on the whole thing. After 2/10 and especially 2/15 it probably becomes to come apart.

Didn't 23-24 mostly just fail because the El Nino was too strong? Historically 1.5 or 1.6 is about the furthest you can take them or the whole country tends to pretty much torch. I think 82-83 and 97-98 had alot of SER issues at times because the Aleutian Nino vortex just becomes so expansive it leads to a trof out west or in NW Canada

If you get really cold early it can make it easier for that to happen. Many trees/plants need to go through a certain amount of hours below a threshold and then they're ready to bloom. In 89-90 there was a crazy amount of blooming in VA/NC/SC in mid to late January because everything reached its hours below in December. In a winter like 15-16 that probably did not happen since you never got cold enough in those areas for them to get required hours on the underside. Up north though it did and stuff bloomed in NYC. Fortunately when the warm spell happens this early the flowers/buds can die and then often get another stretch below threshold to regenerate again in late February or March. If you get heavy blooming in early or mid Feb though and then a killer 3-4 day stretch of 20s/30s the flowers will just die and the tree will leaf out 6-8 weeks later.

FWIW the 00Z RRFS at 84 looks like the GFS down in GA as far as having precip being much more west. Its been largely awful though this winter season though its done okay on some systems.

The differences down in AL/GA/SC with the GFS vs like everything else is laughable lol....don't worry guys, 1 inch only shuts those places down

Seemed to work til 2014-2015. Since then much less so. I think after the Euro upgrade in that period the rule kind of went out the window.

UK is just wacky at times. I would not be concerned at this range. I have as matter of fact said the past decade whatever the UK does the Euro does the opposite. I have not kept tabs closely but feels since about 2015 when one makes a notable move at 12 or 00Z the other seems to do the reverse. UK has given many of us along the EC hope only for the Euro to say no. The old rule of them moving in tandem holds less frequently these days