SnowGoose69

.11 liquid since. Probably about 8 or 10:1 so I'd say yeah they have to be near 3.5

All stations will be trying to break the 12/14/03 daily record tomorrow. Not sure any do it, will need over 4.5 to do so except for JFK

Its more that Scandinavian block is more SW on some ensembles now. Unfortunately the WPO/EPO the last couple of cycles are becoming unfavorable again but thats also out at D14-16 so not highly confident in any of the changes

00Z HREF mean is pretty close to the Euro idea...max is in same zone where it seems to want to go like Dover-Monmouth for the highest amounts https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=ne

I find it funny all top 3 CIPS analogs (12/5/92, 12/8/06 12/13/86) are sort of close at 500, every one was a nothing event with no snow anywhere from what I can tell, 12/5/92 was an epic bust, we had WSWs out down here and saw nothing, I think they actually dropped them late afternoon on 12/5 after putting them out at 4-5pm on 12/4.

The ICON I swear has ideas close to the end result on some events in the 120-150 range when the GFS/CMC are just totally lost but it might just be selective memory by me or the fact at that range its made a few hits and I remember them. The NAM used to have biases/tendencies at 72-84 that gave you a feel for things but its been a good 8-10 years now since those worked. I think upgrades to it ended that and now it often just shows oddball things but I can never find consistent biases anymore like I used to.

The Euro has struggled in the NE on systems that have more NRN and SRN stream interaction or phasing in recent years. I am less concerned about it falling flat on its face with a system like this. But we still have a ways to go.

One thing I will say before the Euro comes out is it has been insanely good the last 3-4 weeks on these MW/Lakes storms. It obviously has been pretty mid on the E Coast. Thats been a tendency now for a few years. For awhile it sucked over amping everything in the 90-120 period. Since the most recent upgrade that bias is gone and its tended more to underamp in the 48-96 period or just do something/ANYTHING that is different from all other models. The good news so far is everything moved towards it the last 2 cycles and this system is a different setup than the one it botched last week so perhaps its onto the idea this time

Next winter may be telling, its TBD but if we have lets say a 0.6-1.2 El Nino and we continue to see the PDO sit more near -1 to like + 0.5 we really want to see some degree of slowing Pac flow/less -PNA etc...if we still see a heavily Nina type pattern even in that type of regime we may be in trouble or at least waiting 5-10 years til we see the Pac go back to a +PDO ERA

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.

Yes I believe it is having some impact, not sure its a ton of the reason but that event being more washed just based on usual tendencies when two waves are in fairly close proximity helps

Main reason I want this to happen is it increases the odds the Giants lose a game that is very winnable....

That said there is a risk of a rainer, at least down where I am and the SE parts of the MA forum. I think Forky was maybe hinting at that in one of his posts and I have seen some of the Mets on X indicate that as well, the look over the GL region at 500 is indicative of that but I think the fast flow and overall positive tilt to that trof makes it a remote possibility. In the days of slower Pac flow this one to me would have much higher rain risks at this stage.

Its another 7 days before we have any idea where early January is going. I currently still side towards this warmup is brief from the Lakes to the NE and NRN MA. May be longer for the TN Valley/SE but still their warmup will be nothing compared to 2015 or 2021, I would bet even places like TN/GA/SC struggle to get much above upper 60s as that is a sneaky setup where highs will keep semi wedging down in there.

Yeah I still lean towards a miss being more likely out of all the possibilities. Once again I almost would rather be in the northern MA right now if you forced me to take a stand one way or another. There is a chance this could get its act together in time that C-SNJ or the PHL area could get a few inches and NYC to BOS could miss out.

My ex was watching one of those 10 years ago and I almost got enraged. I may still have the photo on my phone somewhere, they showed a blizzard setup as the main character was watching TV and the map of the lows/highs and track made zero sense, stuff was moving the wrong way

Still think we got another 36 hours or so til Sunday is figured out. There continues to be a risk of anything from C-1 inch, several inches, a rainer, or a miss completely. I am still not that sold on any major warmup, unfortunately there may be a 3-5 stretch that hits the XMas window dead on but until that WPO as Don has pointed out goes positive there is a chance that ridging isn't extended to the E Coast or the NE for more than just a brief period. The EPO pop too on the EPS drops back towards neutral by 12/25

GFSAI has a storm off Nantucket at 114

Yeah was coming to say this. Even the NAM was that way though at 84 the NAM is a mess anyway most times

Despite the change on the 18Z runs the ingredients for this are still in no man’s land. This was stated by someone on the SNE forum too. I think this will change about two times over in the next 36-48 hours. There is even a risk for this thing to be a rainer honestly given the setup but I’d still lean towards a miss being the more likely fail

IMO this is a classic setup the GFS would win. In La Nina years or any case where you have any heavy northern stream involvement or fast flow if its squashing a system it tends to be right. Its more often owned on Miller As or systems where you've got more southern stream action

I do know the NWS office reported they've begun to mix...I think the line may stall or even settle back SW soon. Not sure it'll make it to the immediate metro except the S side near the airport for awhile.

They'll still likely beat OU. Albeit, OU caught a huge break not getting MIA/ND. Those teams even vs their D would post 25-30 probably which would be too much for OU to overcome, Bama they might be able to defend their way out of it

The EPO sucks, the WPO continues to be good...as Don has posted in the main ENSO threat a few times, in those situations the WPO often wins out...may be why we are now seeing the fighting back and forth on ensembles. Would help if the AO/NAO were more negative though

There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later. Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.