SnowGoose69

Yeah it was heavily downplayed near the coast but just inland a bit they were going big, I think for Philly and BWI the forecast was pretty big, the big issues with people being surprised were centered around NYC metro.

39 years ago today.... https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1987/us0122.php One of many terrible forecasts back in the 80s, especially the 87-89 period. 1-2 inches changing to rain I believe was the forecast the night before. As we began seeing during the 80s, models did sometimes begin catching on at the last second so I think they did upgrade to a heavy snow warning at like 4-5am for at least NYC on N and W but they did not for LI/Queens/Brooklyn so many people went to work and even some in NYC/NJ did because with no social media back then if you did not turn on the TV if you woke up at 5-6am you did not realize the forecast changed. My aunt made it home that day thanks to her 76 or 77 VW Rabbit which had FW drive, she said she was only car actually able to drive through the streets while everyone she navigated around was stuck. The Devils played a game that night with only like 300 fans showing and some players not even making it to the game.

If the trends hold I am less worried about ATL. I'd expect the GFS eventually goes way warmer there. Ultimately may only see a brief 8-10 hour period of FZRA there 03-12Z or so Sun AM but we have a ways to go

Yeah the wedge is insane on the RGEM.

You can almost automatically de-amplify the RGEM a bit at 60-84, thats a rule that seems to work 9 of 10, especially if its more amped than other models in the same period but I only use the RGEM past 48, never the NAM

Just based on historical climo alone. I know of no cases other than Jan 87 2/11/94 and 2/2014 where the area saw 8 plus near the coast then flipped over. I guess you can argue 2/2008 but that was not a setup like this. In general this type of setup is all snow most of the time NYC vicinity north

Color me shocked this went that far north but the fact the key southern disturbance was coming in from basically Mars and another piece from NW Canada I guess I should be less shocked. That said this is still a bit early so there may be corrections back the other way the next 2 days

The Euro/NAM/RGEM are really the only models that'll see wedging/CAD but even those tend to underestimate it at times beyond 48 hours. The UKMET/GFS/CMC can underestimate it.

20:1 is tough here outside of maybe a clipper in a very cold setup. Coastal lows usually its either too warm or too windy for ratios that good. PD2 is a case though where I think ratios may have been close to that and 2016

Having done forecasts there for years the wedge often times tends to be deeper in NE Ga so they end up more sleety in this storms. I think if this trends more to FZRA they'd probably see much less precip and just get like 0.25 FZRA and that is all. There is a narrow setup for them to see monster ice totals there. The wedge tends to save them or the system just usually cuts more north and they are drier.

Well the TWC behind the scenes folks sure like the NRN most solutions. Their depictions at least in the MA on S and W are on par with the CMC or UKMET.

Its pretty safe to say this event up this way will not be as insanely long duration in all likelihood as it may be down in the SE because they may see a crazy long overrunning period. I felt the 12Z Op Euro was gonna go full blown UKMET when I saw it through like 96 hours but it ultimately deviated after that.

I'd think no at this range. I think the mid-level warm advection will push a layer somewhere over 0C very early on

I still think they mostly end up sleet but long way to go. If some CMC version occurs or close to it the risk is there for mostly FZRA but they'd also be drier in that case though

CMC was just slower overall but also moved towards the more east later transfer idea. I said last night that either happens way west in the TN Valley or in coastal SC/GA in these setups. It won't typically happen over WRN GA/AL.

I would not worry a ton about the GFSAI. If the EUROAI begins going flatter its more a concern.

Better than the GFS but this is not the type of storm the CMC tends to make big scores on. I like the CMC for major phasing events between the NRN/SRN streams or classic Miller As that result in deep surface lows. It can tend to be less reliable in this type of storm.

CMC gets there to a degree still but I have felt for awhile its idea was nonsensical, we do not typical see phases happen in the location it had been trying to show it. I more buy the interaction and turn north happening later along or off the SC/GA/NC coast

CMC definitely moving towards the GFS/Euro idea it seems so far

ALL models do! lol

Past events like this though it never grasps the depth of the cold layer in that area til inside 36-48. 2/2014 I was forecasting and at this range it also appeared to be FZRA, I think even until 48-72 it did

I think the areas in the wedge core like GA and SC will get mainly sleet, but those outside of it like N AL/N MS AR/TX would likely be FZRA. They all could use a CMC or UKIE solution which spares many areas down there from a FZRA event but to me that hard early phase is not likely.

Euro/AI solution makes more sense as to how it evolves. I still like flatter down in the Deep South with more a late evolution to near the CMC idea off the MA coast

The CMC is phasing/turning the corner in a climatologically very rare location. I have seen some systems do that but they are often monster deep Miller A lows. I think in the end that idea would result in a phase either earlier and more west or more likely east near the SC/GA coast or GA coastline

Its phasing the storm at an unusual point climatologically. Chances are it will either phase and turn the corner quite a bit west of that or more down towards the coast. No question verbatim its solution is unlikely to the T, you'd need to have a much more dynamic phase or deep low.