SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Good news perhaps with regards to the RRFS....it did a spectacular job today on ptypes in Michigan and seems to have a good handle here tomorrow AM on the R/S line. With the NAM being discontinued sometime in 2026 it was really important that the RRFS performed well on winter precip events given the HRRR and GFS are relatively awful usually being too cold aloft and the HRRR sometimes in the BL too. The RRFS not having a MOS product though will continue to be a problem.
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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
SnowGoose69 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Also the PNA is likely to go + in that period, at least historically I think 95% of -EPO/-PNA E QBO Decembers had a +PNA January -
November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
SnowGoose69 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Would not surprise me if 12/20-1/20 is really the period where it happens and 12/1-12/20 ends up normal or not overly cold. -
One notable thing today is a -NAO, albeit a weak one showing up at the end of all ensemble runs. It makes a difference for sure, even if its just -1 if its far enough west as far as flattening the SE ridge component
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The classic S-N moving overrunning event...the models even today underestimate those events here, especially from central LI westward though the Euro did well it was somewhat ignored in favor of the the NAM/GFS.
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Yeah that ridge is way too far west on the 06z GEFS and 00z EPS/GEPS. The GEPS has what seems like maybe a broader PV that is more south which is why its not as bad. The SER is likely underdone if the EPO ridge is going to be that far west
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01-02 was largely positive too. The problem was more just a terrible Pacific or AK pattern in both winters than it was the PNA. The NAO/AO were also largely positive except late December 01
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Its common in the TNH pattern...93-94, 14-15 winters saw the -AO/+NAO often.
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The good news is that GEFS/GEPS have kind of been destroying the EPS the last 4-6 winters for the most part with the post D10 evolutions involving the pattern due to them seeming to handle PAC issues better. Both of those show markedly faster transitions for those in the E in late Nov than the EPS which is going much more -PNA and SE ridge.
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You’d think getting another mod strong one isn’t too likely. That would make 3 of the last 4 with only 18-19 not being strong or mod
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People don't realize though that many significant snow events had a -PNA
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I want to say those are "Normalized" or re-calculated in some way. I've seen the -1.3 mentioned by others too.
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Seems the EPS/GEFS today may have killed it more too. I'm not sure if that is why today we've seen a trend towards less ridging in the E after D10 somewhat. A less potent run through 6 late and 7 might result in that.
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925 winds for the metro are 44-49kts from 03-11z or so, sustained on MOS is around 30...if this was day time I'd be worried about mixing to 900 or 875 with gusts of 50kts but I think we might be only 42-44
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Thankfully due to La Nina strength we can probably toss both 88 and 99. I think both those years also had W QBOs and W or CNTRL based La Ninas
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Good thing peak winds at 900-925 occur when its dark, if this came through 12-18 hours later I think some gusts over 50 would be possible.
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The ACCESS BOM from Australia when I checked yesterday argued it does not really make it heavily into 7 and definitely not 8. I have found that model sometimes is better than the EPS/GEFS for the MJO in the longer range
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Yeah problem still is the subsurface is concerning. I am not confident this thing gets over like -0.6
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As I said last winter and what mostly transpired, the MJO can be in bad phases as long as its weak or just mostly nonexistent which was the case last winter most of the time. You just don't want it strongly in 3-4-5 all winter
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Jan/Feb 90 was the highest AO/NAO ever I think other than Jan/Feb 1989. I still think its the record now though 2018 or 2020 may have surpassed it. In general there's been tendencies near the solar max if you have a persistently -AO/NAO in Nov/Dec it can be a problematic issue in Jan/Feb where it swings wildly to be strongly positive. We saw this a bit in 2000-01 too, the AO remained negative in Jan/Feb but the NAO went significantly positive the remainder of the winter.
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There was just a ton of bad luck. It wasn’t so much the winter patterns were bad outside of 82-83 84-85 and 88-89. Even 89-90 December was decent it was just that everything got suppressed
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I guess the snow total was skewed by the 4/1 event. Overall it was a strange winter because indice wise it was good in December and January. There was just no snow or it was all inland
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The 90s were odd depending where you were. 92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters. 93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas. At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though
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Its December depiction makes sense to me, not sure about Jan/Feb. The Feb anomaly does not look much like any recent Nina or neutral composite we've seen. It looks more like a raging progressive Pac jet type pattern. If that type of setup verified I think the SER would be much stronger in the east
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2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs. Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.
