SnowGoose69

No, FNMOC site was being hacked/etc so they made it access only internally I think

I am surprised since the Darnold nagging oblique or whatever thing came out that the line on that game has not moved.

I think the areas where a big NW move may happen are way down south in like GA/SC. And I am not even sure I'd call it a NW move, its more the H5 has argued the QPF is being underdone on the NW edge down there which is why at times the RRFS and some other models have shown snow back to like ATL/GSP. I don't really see big changes likely up the coast.

No high in SE Canada is still a big issue here as I said a few days ago.

The Euro ideas down in SC/GA aloft have never budged much the last 48 hours...it was always a bit too dry down there as were many other models. I have been on the train of be wary in GA/SC even back as far as ATL/GSP to see this thing make a late push back NW. Eric Webb has been pumping that idea on X too.

The EuroAI QPF extensiveness just looks suspect to me

Kind of what my thoughts have been the last week. I said I like next week possibly for something but then I think 1/24-2/1 or so its SE/MA thing and then 2/1-2/10 is when another window opens here. I am not buying the breakdown at the end of ensembles yet. They are likely right on the idea but has been the case all winter they likely are 7-10 days too fast on the whole thing. After 2/10 and especially 2/15 it probably becomes to come apart.

Didn't 23-24 mostly just fail because the El Nino was too strong? Historically 1.5 or 1.6 is about the furthest you can take them or the whole country tends to pretty much torch. I think 82-83 and 97-98 had alot of SER issues at times because the Aleutian Nino vortex just becomes so expansive it leads to a trof out west or in NW Canada

If you get really cold early it can make it easier for that to happen. Many trees/plants need to go through a certain amount of hours below a threshold and then they're ready to bloom. In 89-90 there was a crazy amount of blooming in VA/NC/SC in mid to late January because everything reached its hours below in December. In a winter like 15-16 that probably did not happen since you never got cold enough in those areas for them to get required hours on the underside. Up north though it did and stuff bloomed in NYC. Fortunately when the warm spell happens this early the flowers/buds can die and then often get another stretch below threshold to regenerate again in late February or March. If you get heavy blooming in early or mid Feb though and then a killer 3-4 day stretch of 20s/30s the flowers will just die and the tree will leaf out 6-8 weeks later.

FWIW the 00Z RRFS at 84 looks like the GFS down in GA as far as having precip being much more west. Its been largely awful though this winter season though its done okay on some systems.

The differences down in AL/GA/SC with the GFS vs like everything else is laughable lol....don't worry guys, 1 inch only shuts those places down

Seemed to work til 2014-2015. Since then much less so. I think after the Euro upgrade in that period the rule kind of went out the window.

UK is just wacky at times. I would not be concerned at this range. I have as matter of fact said the past decade whatever the UK does the Euro does the opposite. I have not kept tabs closely but feels since about 2015 when one makes a notable move at 12 or 00Z the other seems to do the reverse. UK has given many of us along the EC hope only for the Euro to say no. The old rule of them moving in tandem holds less frequently these days

Was gonna joke the UKIE would get cold feet and move the other way. Seems to always begin waffling once inside like 108. I have also said before the last 10 years whatever the UKIE does the Euro does the reverse so watch the Euro have it raining on the Cape now.

Its early but not sure I see a scenario as LIKELY at the moment where RDU is in trouble with this as far as ptype. I'd still be more worried about a miss than being too far W.

To be fair the EPS has actually been pretty close to the GFS idea last 2 runs down in SC/GA. So its been on the train the most in prior model cycles of this at least being far enough west and organized down that way to be a factor up in SNE

Its rare to see the GFS actually be the one showing this when nothing else is, albeit everything did move in that general direction and the EPS has been more west too. I think this for the moment is still an outlier though. We need to see this organize pretty far west down in SC/GA in order to get something to be a hit for most of our area.

The main reason that event has sort of tamed is the SER is not quite as strong as it was being shown to be in that period next week anymore. I still don't love Sunday due to lack of a high in SE Canada, it would need to be a pretty close to perfect setup right now

It IS a sloppy phase but also there's no real high in place in SE Canada so probably even in a clean setup that one verbatim is close.

It looks pretty transient to me. I do think there is a window there 1/20-1/23 or so where a storm likely happens but right after that we continue to see the 3 ensembles all more or less go back to a +PNA look again or a hybrid -EPO/+PNA look that may be briefly suppressive. I think 1/24-1/29 may favor the MA/SE. After that might be a 2 week window up this way. I am now becoming more confident we carry this ti 2/10-2/15.

I would watch MS-AL-GA-SC Sat-Mon. Something may come out of nowhere inside 4 days. UK has been showing it on and off and does again today. Remember that the GFS/Euro sort of suck with killing shortwaves in these patterns. The ICON does not really show much now but unfortunately 2 of our main models have issues with Gulf Coast slider type events which is why so many of those historically have popped up inside 96 hours.

At the moment it seems next Wed-Sat is a window to watch. I'd favor the interior or Lakes right now but we've seen the SER be overdone at times. I think after that for awhile we may go a bit suppressive and the pattern from the 24-29 may favor the SE or MA. It could be when we begin to see a relaxation the week following that we could see a coastal event.

There will be a 2-3 day period next week Tue-Thu or Wed-Fri where the SER builds briefly. This is probably when the OH Valley/NE likely sees a big winter event but thereafter the +PNA likely comes back and that may be a broader trof which makes it more likely a winter event hits the SE somewhere in the 23-30 period

I think it still eventually goes but I had said a week ago the +PNA was likely going to hold longer than ensembles showed. They've just been bad past about D8-10 this winter but reasonably good with the pattern ideas up til D10. I think the EPS at D16 may be showing signs of a breakdown coming soon after that. The evolution back to the -PNA may not be the typical shift west of the EPO/PNA ridge but may be the Pac jet smashing it down and then the -PNA evolving after that. If you loop the EPS from D14-16 it appear maybe if ran out to D20 that would be what happens.

I am just amazed how good the long range ensembles have been this winter with the theme or setup of the pattern inside about 192 and how bad they have been beyond that. Now we have the ensembles today briefly trying to go -PNA but then seeming to be shifting everything back towards +PNA again by D15-16. I think most likely the overall idea is the +PNA is going to hold longer than expected as that regime once it establishes as hard as it is going to here it is difficult to boot it out. I have no real ideas beyond that because the MJO strength is a big issue if its strong or weaker