Jump to content

SnowGoose69

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,666

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Right now feels like all major ensembles are locked onto the idea 10-13is pretty mild...especially W of the NE/SNE, then 14-17 looks colder. Then it comes down to what happens with the indices. If the PNA/EPO/WPO go strong -/+/+ the month is probably cooked and it gets very mild just about everywhere in the CONUS 18-28, but does not mean March is done. If those indices can at least settle near neutral values we may be in business since I think the AO/NAO are favorable. Someone else too maybe in the SNE thread mentioned don't forget shortening wavelengths allow crappier 500 setups to produce storms. I always point out how 2/8/13 and 4/6/82 had very similar 500mb patterns nationwide. One event pretty much escaped east, the other almost cut over us and was rain. Its a bit easier to get snow here in lousy setups in March than January, but obviously that factor can be negated by temp issues.
  2. SnowGoose69
    Unlikely with 850s of only -22. It usually needs to be -27 or lower. You can do it with much lower 850s but you need winds to be like 360-020 and probably have a snowpack
  3. SnowGoose69
    Below 0 temps possible next weekend with that setup
  4. SnowGoose69
    06z Euro was reasonably near the idea. This one may have a chance. RGEM though which has been really good recently has nothing, RRFS is a relative blizzard lol. Its becoming clear the RRFS is more NAM bad post 48 than it is RGEM good post 48. Inside 24 though I will say the RRFS is very useful and has been pretty good. Its just to me worse than the NAM in the 30-60 window.
  5. SnowGoose69
    I think we could epic torch like 2/22 or so into early March then have a secondary interesting stretch. I am not overly thrilled with anything in the near future. It probably gets pretty warm 9th-13th or so, especially areas SW of SNE. Then I do think we get a window there of maybe 8-10 days but feel it could go real ugly for a bit after that. Hopefully for places like the MA/SE/TN Valley it does not result in too much blooming because Nina-Nino transitioning March years long have a history of these active stretches in March after mild periods
  6. SnowGoose69
    NW flow setups like that only work in areas from ATL on south if the upper level feature organizes much earlier across the TN Valley. This one developed too late and was too far north. The March 1980 storm was similar but the upper level low and trof developed much earlier and tracked more south.
  7. SnowGoose69
    Fort Lauderdale easily should have their coldest February day tomorrow, previous coldest was 55 in 1970. MIA/PBI records go back longer so some days in the 40s in 1917/1900/1895 but both will have their coldest February day since then. MLB is reporting -SN now but I think thats erroneous
  8. SnowGoose69
    ISP nearly got that first below 0 since 1988. I think a big reason they rarely go that low anymore is more development in that area since back in the 80s
  9. SnowGoose69
    Jacksonville airport in FL Reporting snow...not sure if that is first time since 89 or not. They may have reported it in 2010 and 2018.
  10. SnowGoose69
    Most developing El Nino summers are cool in the East. I'd expect if we see the expected transition to at least a weak-moderate El Nino this summer would be below normal
  11. SnowGoose69
    Some NWS offices call and ask the tower to measure, but not all seem to do so. Mt Holly always gets measurements from TTN/ABE though neither has an observer anymore. NYC though does not do the same at GON/HVN/FOK/FRG despite the fact probably they could get TWR staff to do it. BOS/PHL/DEN/DTW all do not measure on the field for whatever reason so they never have SNINCR remarks or 4 groups. My assumption is that none of them have good spots on the field to measure snow accurately. They all use someone just off the airport grounds to do it.
  12. SnowGoose69
    ICON finally joined the party on this next system and doesn't have a bomb anymore
  13. SnowGoose69
    Airport web cam confirms it...these cases the downslope flow is fighting with the precip....I still think that period from 12-2 is when most accumulation is likely to happen.
  14. SnowGoose69
    GEPS/EPS have a bit of a hostile period where the SER connects to the block but it does not seem to last long. GEFS does not have it at all or its briefer. I think we probably hit or exceed normal snows before its all over though
  15. SnowGoose69
    I think you’re looking at 11am-2pm for most of it to fall. There is extensive coverage much further west than modeled but the rates in those bands right now aren’t very good. Over time as we see the area pivot south I think most accumulation is very late morning into afternoon
  16. SnowGoose69
    The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well. But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it. The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too. The AVN/MRF had been merged just 8 weeks prior so I think there was some concern about the reliability of what it was showing.
  17. SnowGoose69
    Inside this range go with the 3km NAM/Euro/RGEM...they're going to handle this better than the GFS.
  18. SnowGoose69
    The Euro is probably overdone on magnitude, but I could see a 1.6 or 1.7 peak still which is a tad too much for the East...you ideally want around 0.8-1.2 for the best winters in El Ninos.
  19. SnowGoose69
    My co-worker and I call that the pre AGW pattern. Would see that type of pattern all the time pre 2000s...especially pre 1990. Its become quite rare now. It always seems some sector of country is a torch and some sector is very cold when we are not wall to wall warm in winter.
  20. SnowGoose69
    Indications the QBO may be more E next winter, if that happens and the El Nino is over 1.5 may not be as good as we had been hoping. Might be glad in the future we did well this winter.
  21. SnowGoose69
    Since the 2014 disaster I think everyone just stays home now. I know the Dec 2017 storm which was a forecasting disaster it was close to another mess but temps stayed just a nose high enough the roads did not ice up before the evening.
  22. SnowGoose69
    Yeah that was a mess, it shows how far forecasting has come. Nearly no warning on the 2/25 event and the 3/15 I think it was storm they had a WSW out, dropped it, then at like 1am had to put it back out. 12/25/02 that happened too, the NWS is way more cautious these days about not doing that. Thats why they tend to go bigger on watches now and then just convert them to advisories if needed.
  23. SnowGoose69
    I'd go like 0.5-1.5 for ATL with a risk of up to 2.5-3 in worst case. But I think WSW criteria there is 2 if its all snow though I am not sure on that. I think though NE parts of Fulton county may see 2 so all you need is one report of that somewhere. I was surprised DeKalb was not in a warning to begin with.
  24. SnowGoose69
    I remember CHS airport closed for a week back in 2018. I could not believe there was no snow removal equipment within a reasonable driving distance. They just waited for it to melt
  25. SnowGoose69
    WSW in GA is being expanded SW shortly over ATL. I think it should have been a county back anyway. Decent chance of the threshold being met
×
×
  • Create New...