SnowGoose69
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About SnowGoose69
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It can be easier to get something in March that might miss to the east in Dec/Jan/Feb. My memory is the April 82 storm did not have a very favorable pattern and probably would have missed to the east in winter due to things being progressive.
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Still looking like another weak or even chance of a borderline moderate Nina at the moment. The QBO may be more favorable next winter though
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This close in I don't like using ensembles anyway, the cut off to me on those is 84, once to 72 I often won't even look
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JB is sorta right, PSU echoed this in the MA forum that even if you looked at the CIPS analogs, many show the 500 setup from like Chicago to the Delmarva being one where we had storms that were so far west the coast changed over. Its likely just a case here thats an extremely rare circumstance where a couple of things being slightly off are leading to an atypical result given the setup. Or the NAM is gonna pull another January 2016 on us...
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I definitely lean more towards a total shutout here now. obviously we’re not seeing that on any ensembles or models yet but at this stage given the changes we’ve seen I suspect that once we get inside about 84 or 90 we’ll probably see this at a high risk of flattening out even further. I just warned some people online I said you might even have to be worried in DC, which I was telling people about here yesterday
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
As of 4pm it was LGA 0.3 JFK and EWR 0.4 NYC T -
OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
SnowGoose69 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Should be between 0.5-1.0, I'd say its like 0.4 so far -
Yeah the 18Z ICON was like a Nemo redux, saved by a late capture but realistically that is a worse trend from the prior run
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It was east
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I think its a miss for DC if it misses the rest of the coast, orientation and everything to me argues if its not an across the board big city hit its more or less a miss outside of the Delmarva/SE NJ/Cape and Islands
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Which I don't think is realistic, I think the window for this to hit DCA/BWI and miss everyone else is a narrow one. I suspect this hits all the big cities or none. Could see it where the Cape/Islands/SE NJ and maybe Delmarva are hit but not a case where the former occurs.
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Be wary of those 06 or 18z EPS jumps. Seen it before in recent couple of years and then the ensuing main hour run reverts back to what the tendency had been prior. At least the AI made a jump which is unusual from what I've seen from that model so far
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It did not do too well with this last event, it was way south til the final day. I've not followed it much beyond 96, its been good inside of that but not so much beyond
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Saturday schedule, even for a holiday weekend such as this tends to be light. Might be a bit heavier than most winter Saturdays but that will allow them deice and move aircraft easier than say a Thursday or Sunday afternoon. Also runway conditions will be good with no risk of poor braking or treatment delays
