SnowGoose69

06z Euro was reasonably near the idea. This one may have a chance. RGEM though which has been really good recently has nothing, RRFS is a relative blizzard lol. Its becoming clear the RRFS is more NAM bad post 48 than it is RGEM good post 48. Inside 24 though I will say the RRFS is very useful and has been pretty good. Its just to me worse than the NAM in the 30-60 window.

I think we could epic torch like 2/22 or so into early March then have a secondary interesting stretch. I am not overly thrilled with anything in the near future. It probably gets pretty warm 9th-13th or so, especially areas SW of SNE. Then I do think we get a window there of maybe 8-10 days but feel it could go real ugly for a bit after that. Hopefully for places like the MA/SE/TN Valley it does not result in too much blooming because Nina-Nino transitioning March years long have a history of these active stretches in March after mild periods

NW flow setups like that only work in areas from ATL on south if the upper level feature organizes much earlier across the TN Valley. This one developed too late and was too far north. The March 1980 storm was similar but the upper level low and trof developed much earlier and tracked more south.

Fort Lauderdale easily should have their coldest February day tomorrow, previous coldest was 55 in 1970. MIA/PBI records go back longer so some days in the 40s in 1917/1900/1895 but both will have their coldest February day since then. MLB is reporting -SN now but I think thats erroneous

ISP nearly got that first below 0 since 1988. I think a big reason they rarely go that low anymore is more development in that area since back in the 80s

Jacksonville airport in FL Reporting snow...not sure if that is first time since 89 or not. They may have reported it in 2010 and 2018.

Most developing El Nino summers are cool in the East. I'd expect if we see the expected transition to at least a weak-moderate El Nino this summer would be below normal

Some NWS offices call and ask the tower to measure, but not all seem to do so. Mt Holly always gets measurements from TTN/ABE though neither has an observer anymore. NYC though does not do the same at GON/HVN/FOK/FRG despite the fact probably they could get TWR staff to do it. BOS/PHL/DEN/DTW all do not measure on the field for whatever reason so they never have SNINCR remarks or 4 groups. My assumption is that none of them have good spots on the field to measure snow accurately. They all use someone just off the airport grounds to do it.

ICON finally joined the party on this next system and doesn't have a bomb anymore

Airport web cam confirms it...these cases the downslope flow is fighting with the precip....I still think that period from 12-2 is when most accumulation is likely to happen.

GEPS/EPS have a bit of a hostile period where the SER connects to the block but it does not seem to last long. GEFS does not have it at all or its briefer. I think we probably hit or exceed normal snows before its all over though

I think you’re looking at 11am-2pm for most of it to fall. There is extensive coverage much further west than modeled but the rates in those bands right now aren’t very good. Over time as we see the area pivot south I think most accumulation is very late morning into afternoon

The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well. But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it. The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too. The AVN/MRF had been merged just 8 weeks prior so I think there was some concern about the reliability of what it was showing.

Inside this range go with the 3km NAM/Euro/RGEM...they're going to handle this better than the GFS.

The Euro is probably overdone on magnitude, but I could see a 1.6 or 1.7 peak still which is a tad too much for the East...you ideally want around 0.8-1.2 for the best winters in El Ninos.