SnowGoose69

Given it caved to the GEFS look from 2 days ago when the GEFS basically caved to the EPS I think we can toss it somewhat. I'd also be wary of how all 3 suites go from this booming PNA to a -PNA in the blink of an eye in the D9-16 range, we all know pattern changes tend to be rushed so my feeling is we end up holding that pattern from 240-320 or so for awhile vs hard flipping right to a -PNA/-EPO with a SER....that idea MAY be right but would not surprise me if its like 1/27-1/31 before that happens and then by 2/10 we are in a classic Nina Feb look and we're done unless we get the Nino March transition 2nd winter peak

It was always likely the GEFS was gonna be wrong, its been having PAC issues now the last 2 winters. The one area I feel its been better is the NAO. The GEPS caving to the GEFS yesterday was funny though

fortunately with a high end weak to moderate El Nino likely next winter we should finally get out of it

Hannibal has 33 inches already, its only about 5 south of Oswego on a straight line

February I still feel is a lost cause, although if we delay this flip it makes it more likely February, at least maybe the first 10 days is serviceable. There has been 1 guy consistently hyping February though since like October and thats Larry Cosgrove who has been saying 1/20-2/15 is pretty much the window for this winter and has not moved off that idea.

That said I think only NYC/LGA had above normal snow and that was by like a half inch maybe, JFK was shutout or close to it. This Dec was overall a snowier pattern, it would be quite the surprise if January ended up even like +3

The one consistent thing this last 6 weeks is models have largely been able to lock into the theme at around 168 hours at least so I'd think by the 6th we really want to see consistent ideas of the trof kicking eastward and the ridge building out west if we are going to see the 12th or 13th being the start of something manageable, if we are not seeing that by then I think we can kick this more out to the 16th or 17th

I think more a general rule that applies is if January is way above normal there are almost no cases of the winter being snowy. That is really the only rule I think that applies. I just do not know though how many below normal Decembers with above normal snow saw torch Januarys though. Off memory I don't recall any, maybe 2005-06? 1989 obviously was crazy cold but had no snow albeit we had 1 very close call where like POU/BDL/BDR saw 5-10 inches so these things are somewhat relative as close calls either way could have resulted in years fitting/not fitting into analogs.

I'd have tossed it in a second 3-4-5 winters ago but given the PDO decline back near neutral these past 2 winters I am inclined to trust it more on the W-Coast/Canada/AK ideas these days over the GEFS as its outperformed it there now the last 1 1/2 cold seasons

It is quite amazing how the last 5-6 cycles the wild shift the GEFS/GEPS have made while the EPS seemingly has not moved for 5 days. The GEPS now moved to the GEFS idea from 1-2 days ago while the GEFS in the 8-12 day range sort of moved to what the ECAIFS/EPS was showing in that period but then immediately goes back to trying to do post D12 what it was doing yesterday beyond D8 lol

A strong El Nino December would rarely have those anomalies from ND into the Lakes, they'd normally be above normal. Sometimes the immediate EC can be below but El Nino Decembers, even weak to moderate ones often are not cold anywhere except the Deep South and SE and that is often just a relativity thing where a place like ATL/BNA might average -1 largely due to lots of overcast and rainy days but not exactly have a ton of days in the 40s or below or nights below 32. An El Nino January or February can have that type of departure map though

Well the GEFS the last 2-3 runs is really moving towards the GEPS/EPS in the D8-10 period ejecting the trof/building the ridge out near the west coast.

Up until last winter the GEFS was owning the EPS on Pac based stuff for like 5-6 years in the long range, that changed last winter and so far this winter that trend has continued. What has happened though the past winter and a half now is the GEFS is owning the EPS long range on the NAO stuff it seems so maybe lean towards each idea on both with that

Historics argue we are in a real good spot next winter. The weakening PDO the past two winters now coupled with the La Nina strength as of 12/31 in 3.4 argues we would see a Nino somewhere in the 0.5-1.2 range next winter and it would likely be able to couple with the atmosphere vs the 18-19 event. There has never been a Nino over 1.2 the ensuing winter when we've had Nina numbers where they were on 12/31. Almost all of the Mod-Strong events had either cold neutral or just below that.

IMO it never made sense with the EPO spike which many of the individual members showed and the GEPS/GEFS had.