SnowGoose69
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About SnowGoose69
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HRRR/NAM both don't show nearly the QPF into NE NJ/NYC which is likely the higher res models seeing the downslope impact IMO. I have been suspect given the WSW flow that we'd see that much moisture south of the low
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
SnowGoose69 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Those correlations never work in such small sample sizes and you can sort of toss 1931 given what ERA that was. There is no doubt this year has some similarities to 01 though given its most recent, near the solar max and also a cold neutral setup. That said, that followed 3 straight La Ninas too while this winter comes off an El Nino -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
SnowGoose69 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
That was like a weenie generated run. Add in the 1989 like cold shot that is coming down at 360 from NW Canada to the 2 storms -
The best part is its going to try and have a second storm behind it
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Not sure the Pac is really to blame, the system just is just going to be more closed off than originally anticipated a few days ago, there is plenty of cold air to have otherwise been tapped across south central Canada and without the close off Thu-Sun would have been pretty cold across the East, even down into the deep south. The Pac is more to blame for the relaxation in the D7-11 period which the post from bluewave shows the models never saw coming 5 days back. The one positive we are at least seeing so far is higher heights wanting to keep showing up near AK which Eric Webb and a few others on X have been hinting at for a couple of months the setup this year is one where historically some winters have had the -EPO or the poleward ridge into AK. I am not sure if the fact we now might have more of a neutral winter vs weak Nina is problematic somewhat for that. It could allow the QBO/MJO/solar to end up being more dominant.
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On 2/11/94 my district as always just was refusing to close. Finally the parents calling in furious led to them at like 750am saying they were closed. My mom had already decided no way was I going in that day. We were always one of the hardest districts on LI to close back in the 80s/90s. We went from Jan 87 to 2/9/94 without a single snow day which was remarkable. Weekend events helped that out somewhat but still there were plenty of bad week day events where we stayed open and almost 90% of LI was closed. Setauket was another district notorious for never wanting to close back in the day.
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I have definitely noticed a tendency for the Pacific or GOA pattern in late November to often end up carrying through the winter. I had never checked the stats on it but it seems more frequently it translates to Dec-Feb whereas the NAO in late November can mean nothing at all. Obviously 2 notable cases that failed though were 89-90 and 93-94. 89 was about as perfect as it could get and went to hell after December. 1993 is the only case I recall where the AK vortex was a mainstay from late Nov into mid December and then retrograded and never came back the rest of the winter. I had written off that winter by 12/15 based on that pattern and even CPC which back in those days tended to do much more scientific winters forecast a very mild winter for 93-94.
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Most sources have not yet even updated their sites to show it. Accuwx has yet to. As a matter of fact Accuwx had to overhaul their site just to get the Euro to display yesterday as the upgrade messed with things enough it was not displaying anything but thicknesses.
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If La Nina truly fades to nearly nothing or fails to really even hold weak status there is a better chance February is not as torchy though not a guarantee. We've had plenty of leaning cold phase neutral winters with bad Februarys too
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Yeah right now looks like maybe we can carry a workable pattern 11/22 til 12/5 or so as my hunch is the -NAO and the west ridge won't just snap off by 12/1 but probably 12/5-12/20 is going to be bad, how bad depends on the PDO. If its -1.5 and not -3.5 something can sneak in if we assume Canada is not torched like last year.
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This still requires a ton of bad luck for this to LF in Florida. The amount of looping around that goes on in most ensembles down there would require nothing short of a miracle for this not to landfall somewhere and then also split the Cuba/Yucatan gap as well as somehow be a major hurricane
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
SnowGoose69 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
That explains why I guess the 06Z run has all sorts of parameters missing on many sources -
There it is!!!! NYC 291800 METAR 291751Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN018 14/12 A3045 RMK AO2 RAE50 SLP301 P0001 60001 T01440122 10172 20128 58018
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Recently it has not worked. October in 2006 2012 2013 2014 2019 2021 2023 all were very negative and the winters were positive. It seems lately you want October to maybe average less negative if the winter is going to be negative. October 2020 it was only slightly negative but honestly we've had so few negative NAO winters lately who knows if its reliable
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KTPA 100318Z AUTO 34047G81KT 2SM +RA OVC016 A2915 RMK AO2 PK WND 35084/0306 PRESRR P0027 $
