weatherpruf

Well I believe it is still a Watch, so this leaves room for a bust I would think. But you've gotta let the public know.

Nothing is definite, even when it is underway, I have seen storms fizzle out. Rarely, and I mean like once or twice in my life, I have seen them exceed expectations locally.

A garden variety 4-8 is all some of us are hoping to get just west of the city, and that will be ok. Well, maybe not, but you get the idea.

You can't dismiss but the forecasts are out and they are expecting "heavy snow" for the city Friday into Sat. They could be very well be wrong, but they do this for a living, most of us don't.

WNYC is reporting an expectation of 6-12 in the city for Sat, so they must be getting their info from the same sources; been hearing it all morning. Based on the evolution of these types of storms I would expect my area to be closer to the 4-8 range, maybe a little higher, if things come together. Still a ways to go but it does sound to me like there is an expectation of a snow storm. The term " heavy snow" was utilized. FWIW.....I'm not able to analyze these models the way you are and maybe this is considered vendor news, but that's what I'm hearing in the "non-sensational" type media...haven't listened to WCBS or 1010 yet.

Ok so since its the Euros we should take with a grain of salt, no?

Ok, please explain what the EPS is and why it is any more credible, or less so, than anything else we've been reading about.

I hear ya loud and clear

In my experience, models almost never under do the extent of the precip....but who knows?

We had a lot of blocking that winter and managed 3 actual KU/ big events, though they were not all in the same areas; I got about 32 Boxing Day, 9 during the one that mostly affected CT, and 19 a few weeks later. Then it was over by then end of Jan.

Didn't they used to call this a fish storm?

No, 2017. In 2007 we knew we were in for sleet because the warm nose aloft was well forecast. Some areas in 2017 did get a lot of snow but not mine.

March 2017 busted very late in the game as well; the weather service didn't even drop the warning amounts IIRC, because they felt the sleetfest was dangerous and didn't want people to get complacent. But we went from a prediction of 18-24 to about 5 of sleet, and some places less than that.

All I have to do is look at the number of people browsing here; what a drop off in interest!

What if it's 20 min remaining and you're down by two goals and your forwards can't get out of their own end.....there's time enough, but something has to change.....

It truly is and I hate looking at things so far ahead because anything can happen, and mostly they don't come out to anything like the final outcome.

Well it will have to be a lot further west for some of us....hoping for 4-8 and will be happy with it.

It got so cold one winter in the early 80's my gas line in my car froze. But that wasn't the big story; it was the 18 inches dropped in Feb 83....

That storm dumped 10 inches west of the city, so that would be a huge win. It also buried the coast.

Well, TBH, talking about a cold and dry pattern that no one likes is hard to get excited about; warm weather lovers and snow lovers both hate cold and dry. My hands and legs are chapped enough. But I get your point, and it is valid.

There's a reason the upper midwest is losing population to the sun belt......

When's the next one up?

I know you are, but I'm just trying to add some perspective, so maybe people here might not feel so down about it. Actually we have weather enthusiasts here who don't like cold and snow either; they pop up from time to time to cheer the warmth. Obviously I'm not one of those types. In my case, I'm no fan of severe weather, and I know people here follow it. I'd be happy to never see another hurricane or severe thunder storm. Tornados? Wish they didn't exist. In any case, I always appreciate your posts; always well informed and reasonable.

That is all a matter of perspective; many, many people believe 30 inches on average annually is a lot of snow and more than they want to deal with. In fact, these boards aside, I know of no one who roots for snow, and they'd be happy if it never snowed here again. The deck is stacked against those who wish for lots of snow; this isn't the area for that, which makes those rare storms all the more interesting. A couple feet of snow in the Rockies isn't all that unusual; frequent snow in Syracuse or Rochester is par for the course. But a big snow in NYC or Philly ( not so much Boston, which gets more, or Chicago, which has more events, though mostly smaller ) or DC, or any city where that isn't a normal occurrence, is big news. I don't know if people in St. Paul get excited over 3-6 inches, but I'm guessing not.

And even then there's room for error.