weatherpruf

LOL west of me, east of me....someone will get something in some direction away from here. One thing I'll say, there has been no shortage of nasty east winds this fall. More than I can ever remember. Prevailing winds are supposed to be westerly, at least that's what the answer was on the old captain's exam. I remember one ol salt saying yeah, send em down here any afternoon during summer and I'll show em "westerly" winds....

Anthony just west of SI we never saw any snow at all here all day but had a period of sleet. As I went further west it transitioned ( Somerset CTY ) to heavy rain and that's where its been all night. In fact at the Costco people were watching scenes from the game and asking where they were playing at ( a lot of us don't watch football and didn't know it was a home game for Giants? I think...sorry I don't watch sports except for some soccer so I'm not informed on these things ) because there was obvious snow OTG and there was nothing locally.

And not everyone in NE likes snow; many people in the Boston area are there for work and hope for a transfer. And some people think the amount of snow we get in NJ is excessive ( actually a lot of people ). They obviously don't live near me...

Well no one called for more than 1-3 here, and so I don't expect much. I get 3-4 when they call for 8-12....

It's that band that keeps showing up....the one that has my back yard getting nothing while the guy two blocks away gets 3-6. I wonder if is the influence of Raritan Bay or the Arthur Kill. I'm not right on the bay, but a few miles in. We don't think of ourselves as coastal at all, but a hundred years ago Sewaren was a beach resort...

No, they often don't. I mean, in big storms, HECS, we do well, but in most marginal situations we don't do well compared to others to our east, west, north, or south. Jan 2011 was one that jackpotted us, but it also did so for large areas, so did Jan 2016. In Feb 2006, we had around 18 inches, but areas two miles from here had 26! In March 2018, areas to my immediate west ( like 5 min down 27 )had 10 inches or more while we had around 4. Like I said, it happens often enough that there has to be some reason for it.

Just went over to sleet here. Guess we'll be back and forth till it warms up.

Nothing. BUt as I traveled into Union C on the Parkway I saw a few inches. But I am in a bit of a snowhole that rarely jackpots, its just the way it is. Many people here don't even believe me, it will be snowing heavy to my west or east or wherever and we'll be getting light snow and struggling to get more than 3 inches. This happens too often to not be some sort of area phenomenon.

Yeah we had nothing in April 97, or maybe a slight dusting; there was one that left a quarter inch that wasn't treated and this destroyed my 1987 Dodge Ram when I slit into a curb. Two wheel drive guzzler that was awful in any kind of snow.

OUr locals are not real bullish on our area, 1-3 seems the possible and most likely scenario, and would be a typical type outcome. But any snow early in Dec is nice to see; could mean an active pattern ahead, despite all the gloom and doom I see in the long term outlooks.

When i was a kid this was not unusual....areas to our west usually got more snow, down through Mercer/ Trenton. This is anecdotal. It's further from the coast so it could happen.On that map I'd be nearly out of any snow at all, just west of SI. After a lull earlier, we are into some freezing rain here, with cars glazed over lightly.

I'm seeing a side of literate bitterness we've not seen before from you.....did you minor in American Lit? Think Twain....ya know, cauliflower is just cabbage with a college degree, thunder is impressive but its lightning that does the damage...

That's a little further than just west...just west would be Linden, Rahway, Elizabeth, Newark....New brunswick is northern CNJ. They often get very different snow totals from me just west of SI. But I generally live in a snow hole, and if it can find a way not to snow much here, it will.

Actually there is no light anymore; fish there quite a bit in summer ( on my friend's boat, and he is rather limited in his fishing ability and insists on running from Edison NJ all the way to the end of Ambrose because reasons....) gets evil in a hurry out there.....

NYC is pretty big: SI will not have the same snows as the Bronx a lot of time. QUeens often gets more if the storm is more east. So "NYC does fine" in what way?

My rule of thumb, Forky, is to buy gas for the snowblower once you start getting interested in a storm....fortunately I bought some during a recent power outage.

Probably dyscalculia. It was rarely diagnosed back in the day; a relatively intelligent person who can't make sense of math. Could be sitting in one class dissecting Moby Dick passages then walk into Algebra and within ten minutes be going WTF? So I rely on people here to interpret the technical stuff. Most do a good job IMO. After all these years I still gotta look up those times ( I know military times from having been a guard in college ).

Ah, this place would be infinitely dull without the basement types. I could read NOAA forecasts if I just want unfiltered, straight up forecasts. They have a pretty good discussion portion for each area; gets right to the point. And they are all experts ( and they are wrong sometimes too; in fact the disrespect for experts in this culture has been called the meteorologist syndrome...). So, lighten up a bit. Be happy some teens in basements are here instead of engaging in less respectable endeavors.

Amateur here, been around since 2010, but I can say these forum discussions all have a pattern; they waffle back and forth, my portion of CNJ is always on the border of any precip, and nothing is locked in until the night before the event starts. And even then, at least in my area, it doesn't usually look like what was forecast ( several storms over the years delivered inches when feet were forecast ) . Even Boxing Day wasn't really fixed until shortly before. Oh, and rain always gets here sooner than forecast. And I have yet to see a significant backend ( as opposed to a storm that flips to snow; those I have seen ). Still, I love the back and forth and marvel at how nature throws curve balls at even the best here. Learned a lot from you folks.

How quaint, I know.....I often ask people like this if they refuse to believe their own physician when told they have a serious condition that has to be treated......

It's not just some people; wide swaths of society are guilty of it. If the experts here are unsure, then I am certainly not going to buy into anything until more information is obtained. I'd say to be ready for some bad travel weather, but not lose too much sleep over it just yet in my region ( and maybe yours ).

Unlike many people these days, I tend to defer to expertise. You've got credentials, and in legal speak, your expert opinion is given great weight...

That would be a very nice storm for these parts for this time of year. Anyone remember the early Dec 95 storm? Another one that took people by surprise.

Positive or negative is subjective....normally I like snow but a storm this early could end the excellent striped bass season or cause the skippers to decide to close up shop for the season ( at least one announced it today, due to the impending storm and lack of "enough" customers, the idea that their fares have gotten too high escapes these guys, but I digress ) so I'm not real disappointed if it doesn't come to fruition, as I'd like another shot at the fish. But it really isn't up to us in any case. I'll enjoy some snow if it happens, but won't shed a tear if it doesn't.

In 03? There were two storms in a week; one was a 14 inch all snow, the other a week later was a mixed event. Perhaps I have them confused..