weatherpruf
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Everything posted by weatherpruf
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Why? I keep reading here that the GFS is worthless. If it's all alone....or is it?
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The day before that storm I was being my usual Eeyore self and saying that March storms rarely deliver more than a foot in the immediate NYC area, but not because I know anything about the science its just history. No less than Mitchell Volk came on and basically said I was right ( for the wrong reasons maybe ) and that he thought there would be more sleet. Not only was there, but it went way north of where it was supposed to, but those areas had a longer duration snow and still did well. We got about 3-6 of garbage here.
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Well a local store sold 12 snowblowers today so I suspect collusion of some sort.
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This is true in most things. Your doctor doesn't prescribe the same BP medicine to every patient.
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Hmmm....all these storms come to nowcast it seems; kind of makes following a forecast somewhat redundant....but we do it anyway. Gluttons for punishment.
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I must say, all the confusion around here, some saying its good others bad, I learn to look at the long time posters and see what they think. I think JM1220 knows these kinds of set ups pretty well; so JM, I'm looking to you....because I think it will be some snow and a lot of sleet. But it will still look nice.
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It actually rained for a few hours that day. Woke up to 19 inches....
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Feb 2014 was forgettable around here, but it was always progged to be forgettable; we were forecast from the get go for warm nose. That one struggled to get to 3-4 of sleet here; the March sleet storm delivered more here.
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I stood corrected....I misremembered. Or something.
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I'd take the 7 of junk after the last two years....it would still be the biggest event in years.
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Wonderful comment and thanks for weighing in! March 93 also came after a snow drought of several years between big events, and while it wasn't all snow here, it was an awesome storm and when it changed to sleet the sound of pellets was like a sandblaster. Sometime late there was a period of freezing rain which turned it all into 10 inches of concrete. That had as great an impact as two feet of snow.
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Honestly you're in a little bit better spot than those complaining. I've seen significant differences between suburban Essex county and my area over the years.
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It has happened; in December. I've seen it. Just need the right set up. This doesn't appear to be it.
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But we have gotten some decent events; 4-8 and such, I'm guessing, when they got a lot more.
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Probably; once the fix is in it usually starts parading its way more northward than expected. Comes in earlier and mixes faster. I base this on nothing but observation over the years and absolutely nothing based in any kind of science, which I mostly don't understand anyway but at least admit to it.
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5-7 here and not much south the issue there was the officials held onto the big numbers for these areas even though it was clear it wasn't happening, because they didn't want people going out in a sleet fest. I would hope they at least let folks know when they know this time.
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Man, when you give up you really give up. But when you give up it's usually a sign things aren't looking good, I'll give you that. Have you any hope left?
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I'd be more leery of being in any sort of crowd than of any kind of snow these days. It's not just the first storm of the season though; it is the first of any consequence for many in a couple years. And that's looking shakey too. I can only go by what people say here; I'm no expert and don't bother with the media forecasts; they are usually a day late and a dollar short.....
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It's almost not worth it to bank on anything too many days before a storm. Outcomes that change a lot from computer prognostications are common. Predictive science is taking a beating in recent years in more than one field.
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Anything that gives us some enjoyment these days is welcome....but I'm retired now and can sit back and watch.
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In my area we actually don't do well when the coast does; and also don't do well when NW does....the geography of the area near the mouth of the Raritan seems to miss out when the coast gets dumped on and the storms move east before getting to us; when storms are mostly NW ( in terms of snow ) and there is coastal influence, we are close enough for that mix line to cut our totals. Actually, this makes many people around here thankful....
