weatherpruf
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These maps are always way overdone right? Otherwise people will be in for a shock.
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Stay safe. For fun, you can check out the seals down at Sewaren; a friend was watching them near Smith creek the other day. A snow plow almost hit one a few years back right in Port Reading. He called me and said hey, there are some otters out there LOL...
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In the old days yes, not so much with modern equipment and pretreating streets. The type of snow matters as well; a wet snow is more impactful at 6-8 inches than a 12 inch powder.
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Major radio stations are saying 6-10. 8-12 really isn't a significant difference in impact.
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SOme of those maps printed that, but most didn't take it seriously. I like a 6-10 event based on what I'm reading here, probably some period of mixing. Better than the last two winters, eh?
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Models IMO tend to under estimate the warmth, at leas that's what I seem to recall.
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Indeed. I always tend to go lower. A typical storm for our area is 4-8. I see nothing here to convince me we would be much beyond 6-10. Not yet. These models waffle so much, it's almost TMI.
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The coast is out, the coast is in.....while we're here let's go there..
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I have seen many a storm like that; got 6 inches while people 20 minutes away got 12 or more. Many times people here don't believe me, but it happens and is very plausible ( subsidence, dry air, all manner of things ). Even in 2006, got 18 inches while a mile away it was close to 26.
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Once you are over about 18 inches, the differences don't mean much.
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I think it will be bigger for us but not by much....didn't we have a widespread 8-9? So we are looking at 6-10, maybe 12 right?
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I have noted that about the bullseye too...which I happen to be inside for a change ( though this is all still subject to change and likely will ) so looks like it could be a decent storm...not an historical one, but so what?
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There's a clip there of Two Winters to Remember, about the 77 and 78 winters in Evansville IN, my late mom's hometown. Averaging about 13 inches for an average winter, they were pummeled with blizzards and the national guard had to be brought in to dig people out and get them food. This would be unimaginable today.
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And yet that big storm, the biggest I had ever seen, was modest compared to what we saw from 1996 onward...it was about 17 inches; I was in 9th grade, Catholic school, still had a few pairs of plaid pants, with a flare....1977. By 1980 no one would be caught dead wearing plaid, platforms or flares.....or leisure suits....
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There hasn't been a winter as brutal as 94 in my lifetime; the last hurrah that winter was a wicked sleet fest of 4-6 inches in March that had such winds I thought the sleet would break the windows.
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What about Jan 87? Was that just a NJ thing? Not a huge depth, but one wicked storm.....
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When this one is on board I usually buy some gas for the snow blower ( s ).
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Frankly, I just need something to keep my mind off current events. A decent 4-8 inches will do. But it could be more than that. Or less. We'll see....
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Same here. Don't need 2 feet. I too have a couple of new snow blowers ( sears was blowing out there inventory, got a yard machine 28 inch for 299, got a 24 inch Craftsman for 159, both dual stage; the Craftsman had to serviced before it even ran! though the mechanic tells me they are all made by MTD....
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This is days away. I've learned not to assume anything til almost the day of, and even then it doesn't always unfold the way it is expected to.
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Gotta admit, I was in the parking lot at Target and had CBS news on, and they seemed to be kinda sorta thinking this might be a big deal, something about long duration....time to start paying attention.
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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
weatherpruf replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
FWIW I don't think the history matters much anymore. We've just lost almost all Jan with nada. hard to see pulling out 20 inches the rest of this winter. Saw many just like it in the 80's. However, i wouldn't place bets on mother nature. If I knew the future, I'd be rich....always appreciate your informative posts. -
A whole lotta nothing for most of us....
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