weatherpruf

I'm not thinking we are getting those numbers here, but it looks like a big storm is possible......

To be clear, you expect this to have more effects to the west than Juno did? I was not aware it was so paltry up your way; I guess 7 inches was a win over here then. It did snow a lot that winter though, but nothing over about 9 inches and quite a few 4-5. Again, thanks for the analysis.

Further east than Juno and I can leave the snowblower in the shed....and I'm just across the Arthur Kill. The depictions of the various maps show around 6-8 for here, Juno was around 7 inches. I would think further east would be much less for this area. For me this isn't a tough forecast because I'm not in the thick of it; it's just a matter of will it be a nuisance or significant. Anything more would be gravy. My BIL in ME though, he is going to be screaming bloody murder at the notion of a big snow. Dude hates the stuff. Go figure.

I don't see much to change my initial thinking; 3-6 for my area, maybe a tad more, but this is very much like the Feb 2013 storm; close but no cigar. But we'll be happy to at least be somewhat in the game. Folks not far from here are going to get a huge event. I will live vicariously through them as I spend ten minutes blowing the 6 inches from my driveway.....and that's ok. Still time for a complete bust out here I guess. We'll see.

3-6? That's I think our best case scenario in these parts barring some big change.

What's to argue about? There are a range of possibilities, some of which don't look so great for a lot of us. At some point the pros will adjust the forecast; that may be later than sooner this time out.

I had some hope last night, but right now this is looking like a Boston storm to me. Some parts of NJ may do ok ( as it stands right now, as well as parts of LI ) but those of us just west of the city, I think we may be grasping at straws here. These kinds of winters, sorta like 2007, just don't favor my area. At least we haven't had a ton of rain like we did that year IIRC.

When I see " nowcast" I generally don't expect much for my area. Still hoping for a normal snow event. Clearly out of the big show, but maybe have some upper row seats.....

Where would y'all be without us North Jerseyans spending all our dough there every summer:) ( Don't answer that ). Seriously, when the fishing was good back in the day, Barnegat Bay, while never the fish factory that Delaware and Raritan were, had some of the finest fishing anywhere in the country. And it was largely sheltered from the worst winds. Used to catch winter flounder near the nuclear plant.....bluefish, weakfish, blowfish, even porgies at one time.

The city is 6-12; we are only a hair west and that could be a huge difference, but probably not that dramatic. It's looking like we'll see something significant. Maybe?

Well I believe it is still a Watch, so this leaves room for a bust I would think. But you've gotta let the public know.

Nothing is definite, even when it is underway, I have seen storms fizzle out. Rarely, and I mean like once or twice in my life, I have seen them exceed expectations locally.

A garden variety 4-8 is all some of us are hoping to get just west of the city, and that will be ok. Well, maybe not, but you get the idea.

You can't dismiss but the forecasts are out and they are expecting "heavy snow" for the city Friday into Sat. They could be very well be wrong, but they do this for a living, most of us don't.

WNYC is reporting an expectation of 6-12 in the city for Sat, so they must be getting their info from the same sources; been hearing it all morning. Based on the evolution of these types of storms I would expect my area to be closer to the 4-8 range, maybe a little higher, if things come together. Still a ways to go but it does sound to me like there is an expectation of a snow storm. The term " heavy snow" was utilized. FWIW.....I'm not able to analyze these models the way you are and maybe this is considered vendor news, but that's what I'm hearing in the "non-sensational" type media...haven't listened to WCBS or 1010 yet.

Ok so since its the Euros we should take with a grain of salt, no?

Ok, please explain what the EPS is and why it is any more credible, or less so, than anything else we've been reading about.

I hear ya loud and clear

In my experience, models almost never under do the extent of the precip....but who knows?

We had a lot of blocking that winter and managed 3 actual KU/ big events, though they were not all in the same areas; I got about 32 Boxing Day, 9 during the one that mostly affected CT, and 19 a few weeks later. Then it was over by then end of Jan.

Didn't they used to call this a fish storm?

No, 2017. In 2007 we knew we were in for sleet because the warm nose aloft was well forecast. Some areas in 2017 did get a lot of snow but not mine.

March 2017 busted very late in the game as well; the weather service didn't even drop the warning amounts IIRC, because they felt the sleetfest was dangerous and didn't want people to get complacent. But we went from a prediction of 18-24 to about 5 of sleet, and some places less than that.

All I have to do is look at the number of people browsing here; what a drop off in interest!

What if it's 20 min remaining and you're down by two goals and your forwards can't get out of their own end.....there's time enough, but something has to change.....