weatherpruf
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Everything posted by weatherpruf
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This is worse than 2010...at least we had some good events that winter, and weren't just shut out time after time. And yeah, I don't consider these piddly events worth much. Good for mood, yesterday was nice to walk in, but today, blecch..
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It's absurd. I jokingly said people here would be tearing their shirts and gnashing their teeth on Monday, and it didn't even take that long. I just can't take these models very seriously more than two days out. And yet, when you want a Sandy or Ida to miss or weaken, it never does.....people will panic over a snowstorm that probably won't happen, but I remember when Sandy was locked in and people were saying, nah, it'll miss us, oh it's just some rain, I was like people, this is going to be a far worse ass kicking than any blizzard....I worked in a school, we were closed for a week. Then it snowed. Of course.
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Boxing Day was not locked in; it was questionable up until the last 48 hours or so when the NWS IIRC issued a warning because they felt they had to. That seemed to be a software issue IIRC. I will agree this just isn't our year, and it is getting close to the end. But we still have some time for something decent.
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
weatherpruf replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Youth or full team? -
OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
weatherpruf replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Just noticed it stopped. -
OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
weatherpruf replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Took a nice walk; it was perfect because nothing stuck to the park walking paths yet, but had a nice snowfall going. Had a nice band up til a few minutes ago. Don't see anything out the window right now, unless it flipped already. -
Nemo was a dud for CNJ. 6 inches if you measured real carefully. But we lost hours to rain.
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We are but imperfect humans relying on technology to predict the future...
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
weatherpruf replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
There was one just days after 96...started as snow and turned to rain. Remember it well, I was scheduled for a medical procedure and the doctor forgot his equipment. Good thing too, because he later lost his license because all his test results were the same, which is statistically impossible. -
Good luck. The harbor has become a focus of fall black fishing for the Sheepshead Bay boats that go for them. They can't fish NJ wrecks because the season starts too late. It isn't good anyway. I used to tie up to the rocks at the base of the Verrazano 35 years ago; can't do that anymore.
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We're all hungry for a big storm. Too hungry. 2-4 inches is going to be a big disappointment after all the serious discussions we were seeing. I never bought in; too far out, seen too many of these go wrong. But it should be obvious in a few days if nothing big is going to happen.
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It won't be blanketing the ground; it will be piled high on corners with garbage sticking out, and will be black and grey. Wear something waterproof on your feet. If you can get to Central Park, if it even snows, it will be a lot better. Someone always builds a couple snow figures on the benches.
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Well the sample is small, but years when we have the big storms, we usually keep getting smaller events most of the winter, sometimes even up to early April. In 2010 the pattern locked onto the Delmarva region and only relaxed a little in Feb, giving us a couple events. 2011 was our turn. 2014's parade off 6-10 inchers, and so on. The pattern this year is big snows to the south, 2-4 here. But I kept seeing that "suppression" couldn't happen here; if I'm reading right, the weather gods are finding another way to hit south....
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IIRC, that was the deal with Boxing Day; it was going to miss or hit a good chunk; even still, while it delivered some 32 inches in my region, not far to my west it was way less, which is rather unusual. It did hit all the coastal cities IIRC, but not Philly so much, which is further west.
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I'm in CNJ and we have not had a storm crack 3 inches here IMBY.
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Boxing Day, I remember telling people at work it was going out to sea, this was just before the winter break. Man, did I get some flack for that.....it's just too early to know, but IMO this hasn't been our year and that is probably going to be the story. I'll be a monkey's uncle if I have to watch another southern storm this year.
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Calling for a warm winter in this day and age is guaranteed to be right more than not. Doesn't take any special insight really. In 20 years, I never had pipes freeze. This winter was the first time. So, a warm winter it has not been.....
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10-12 is fun. 30 is deadly. 18 inches is about the sweet spot IMO; big enough to get attention but still something you can deal with. 30 will put a lot of people in the infirmary.
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It was a great winter, but the pandemic still overshadowed it. I was still in isolation. Had to walk in the park and the snowpack was deep, let me tell ya. We did have mixing in NJ and that made things worse.
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I am sick of AI already….
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It's the best for fishing too; unless it is too strong. 10-15 NW is just great, preferably with an outgoing tide.
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Supposedly it was that NW wind that killed us in Feb 89...
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I would just hate another bomb cyclone that hits the NJ coast, skirts C and NNJ and delivers to western LI. Seen way too many of those: I'm sitting on 6 inches and AC has and LI has the same....not that 6 inches is bad....
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I have a feeling there will be rendering of shirts and teeth gnashing by say, Monday....
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This ain't it. These storms may sometimes bring us even up to 3 inches, then crap out to rain and mostly wash away. That's probably our best case scenario; a thump that gives a temporary wintry feel, then over to rain. Seen it lots of times. Well, Costco has the gardening stuff out. Time to plan the garden.
