weatherpruf

When i was younger and worked on fishing boats, they were the object of scorn, because blown forecasts can be life-threatening at sea. A wind that is forecast for 10-15 NW but ends up closer to 30 is a big deal a few miles offshore; like wise 10-15 NW that turns out to be 10-15 NE is also a problem. But generally, being a retired government worker, who was paid more than the folks in the private sector for my particular field ( though there was a ceiling to the salary that doesn't exist in the private sector, theoretically...) I have a high opinion of pubic servants, including the NWS.

The field does attract some strange characters, then again you will see this in every field; I've seen dog evolutionists argue about the origins of the dog like it was crossfire....calling each other stupid and idiots and all. These are PhDs.....

Ok but I'm not NYC or LI...I'm a bit SW of the city across from SI. Southern and eastern storms tend to leave us with scraps, as do NW ones for that matter. It's hard to say which is better for us, though in setups like the last one we still do a lot better than the shore. 19 inches reported here ( sleeted for hours ) so not the NW totals but much higher than SE areas.

Yours or ours? You are still Mt Holly right?

Well they have caused near panic in the tristate area once again. I couldn't get prescriptions this afternoon; drive up line was too long. left after 20 mins. Couldn't get curbside at Sam's because all the regular shoppers took the curbside spots. Reports in media kept calling for intense bands during the day; in the AM they were going 5-9. That is all people needed to hear. It's a Sunday anyway so a bust doesn't mean much. But, c'mon....I don't really care about the inconvenience; I'm retired and will have the spots to myself Monday morning. But i do get tired of the media panic, and now want to go 2-4?

He doesn't seem that far off from other forecasts or am I reading it properly? Looks like 4 for the area, on the lower range but I've been hearing 3-6 all day.

Oh ok, that's supposed to be rain for a lot of us so far.

Heh we've had some classic posters in the past, Mulan, Pamela....well I think the latter was banned but Mulan moved to FL. Hope he's ok. A few years down there you forget all about snow.

Just cause it likes to snow there? Anyway, those are some serious amounts for ELI and CT...doubt that verifies. They seem to think this one can over perform? That's my unprofessional guess....

I'm still mighty sore from Monday's event. But I'll gladly take a nice walk in a moderate snow in the morning. Can someone tell me what the devil a jebwalk is?

Not me. In 6 months I hope to be back at some fishing. Will be hoping for sunny skies, low humidity and moderate temps. But, I will likely have none of those, because it's NJ....heat, humidity, t-storms....

An excellent discussion laying out their reasoning.

I've seen that happen so many times. generally, if its good for the coast and we're marginal here, we will not do as well; the same is true if the snow is more NW; it seems we turn to rain when the coast does, but don't get the snow when the coast does either. I don't know what will happen tomorrow, the storms have favored the NW this year, but this one appears different.

All the way home from running errands I am hearing on the news on radio 3-6 inches and intensity ( with one station going 5-9 ) and it sounds like a lock. I get home, come here and find that we're more like 1-3.....jeez

In the age of COVID, even this commercial has special resonance.....right into the nose...

They do indicate it could happen in their discussion, but they also say the I95 corridor could be the sweet spot; and also that models had seemed to go a little SE. ANd of course, it's a "challenging forecast"

Now you have mentioned he who must not be named.....man was that a scandal in the day. Little did we know the kind of world we had ahead of us....

These set ups often don't favor areas of NJ just west of the city; at times the Hudson itself seems to be like a cutoff. Any thoughts on those areas; Middlesex, Union, Somerset counties? The geography of NJ can sometimes mean areas like Ocean and Monmouth do better and then the storm bands just keep moving east. I have seen this too many times to count. BUt hey, still digging out of 18 of snow and sleet here....

Shouldn't we do away with this anachronistic practice? I mean, we have pro mets posting their forecasts here, they don't have to go to the vendor thread...what's so different about someone posting a pro forecast someone else made? Just food for thought.

If this is an Ocean/ Monmouth/LI special we won't see a whole lot in our neck of the woods, like a 2-4, unless we go 4-8 and they go higher. Seen this set up a lot of times in recent years. East is not good for us, nor is too far west. We straddle the storm lines, it seems.

Feb 2014? Big paste job?

Quick hitters can still be disruptive;; Jan 87 was quick and dirty.

Doesn't seem to be much interest here in this one Ski; could be people are burned out from the big one ( cleaning that 18 inches with the sleet on top was exhausting: I was still cleaning yesterday as the snow came of my solar panels in an avalanche....and buried the snow blowers ) so maybe a 1-3 type deal isn't exciting enough....plus its raining today ugh

I'd say 13-14; because it had some beefy storms, while most of 2015 were light events IMBY.

Thanks for your efforts, I usually go by your measurements as a rough guide to over here in Colonia, but this time I measured and it was 14.5 back around 3 pm; my gut tells me by eyeballing it we have more than 16 otg but I'm not going out tonight again to measure. Will check in the morning. Great storm that didn't quite measure up due to hours being lost to sleet ( as per usual ) but still the biggest event hands down in years. Cheers.