
weatherpruf
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Everything posted by weatherpruf
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Sun breaking through with flurries. Delayed opening for state workers in Trenton. Seriously. I guess a lot of the live in Sussex.
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No, not at all. The major media outlets at no time talked about anything but rain and some light snow here; in 2001 there were days of school closures and many graphics of 1-2 feet of snow all over tv from Philly north; one guy had to get out of Dodge ( Philly ) after that. There was also steady light sleet during the buildup to what never came. This has been nothing big here at all so far and was never thought to be by those who actually practice weather forecasting for a vocation.
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December. You don't want snow in Nov, its a bad luck signal for the rest of the season.
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For days people said this setup favors New England....and here we are. It begs the question of why waste time following models that haven't a prayer of verifying? When simple intuition seems more accurate. What a strange field this is.....I could be wrong but that's my recollection......and once again, the curse of March rears its ugly head for the city, with a few exceptions. Difference here is that none of the actual local pros were ever on board with a decent snow for the city, as opposed to some of the big March busts I remember.
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3-6 would be a very good event at this time of year for NYC.
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You also have to take history into account. March is a well known month for busts even in a good winter in areas just outside the city ( yes I know some places have slightly different climo and that does make a big difference ) but in general I'm skeptical of big snows in March IMBY. Never seen one. By big I mean 18 or over. I consider 4-6 a big event in March around here. 10 is huge.
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Always bear in mind I am completely clueless. I don't deny it. A man's got to know his limitations.....but damn wouldn't that be a thing of beauty if it verified?
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I think people would justifiably lose their sh!@ if this happened. Even 6-8 would be a huge story for us in March here. Even 3-5 would be a welcome sendoff.
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I've decided to do the reasonable thing here; that is, the thing one would do, hopefully, in most situations; see what the experts who do something, in this case weather forecasting, for a living, have to say. Well, they say rain for all but a few slushy inches NW of the city, but that it will be a messy storm and a headache, but they don't seem to be worried about snow. I come here for contrary opinions hoping they might be right, and sometimes, like the Boxing Day storm, they are. But overall, it seems the die is cast here. Still a little uncertainty and I have nothing going on this week, so we'll see. Be safe out there.
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Today is a good example down here.
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That was a very destructive storm and I cannot root for anything that bad. We were stuck in the school and I had a classroom full of 7th graders with no power and a school district that wouldn't let out early. Ugh. The boats in the marinas were all over the place. We lose sight sometimes just how bad these things can be if flooding is involved, something we can usually avoid in snowstorms. I would not want a driving, flooding rainstorm at this point. Have mercy.
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You have to consider what is likely to happen in this region at this time of year, and in a winter where it just doesn't want to snow. Smart money is we can all start prepping the soil. Already did. Some things that are red flags you will see in comments: " it will bring its own cold air", " there will be backend snow", "it's really close""it can snow til April "( July for certain folks here, and I love em all, don't get me wrong, even the ones that are mean to me ). Nonetheless, i'd like to see something happen as much as the next guy.
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It is steady rain out, and I had discounted this event completely ( have thrown in the towel on this winter awhile ago ) is there supposed to be a changeover to white rain? Headed out for a walk rn.
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Nothing but rain here, and not much of that either.
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What they are getting is way past our 95/96. People there are seriously being harmed by the snow. I heard a guy on NPR saying he can't get fresh food and the supermarket roof caved in; and his roof is straining. He said it is not fun. Price you pay for living in the boonies where there is one supermarket and not enough road crews. I'll take the city, thanks. Except during hurricanes and tropical storms.....
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The UK just had a bunch of snow...kinda late for them and don't know if it is due to any anomalies affecting us, but it seems like it wants to snow everywhere but here. March storms almost always fail to deliver for a lot of us even when they are frozen, so watching this and fully expecting it will likely be rain if anything.
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If it only sticks to grass and car tops that will be fine...its March and we aren't getting an arctic blizzard. Mood flakes at this point are a welcome farewell to a winter than never was, and a harbinger of nicer weather to come, we hope....and not a cold wet spring.
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I think it is the fact that March storms rarely pan out for us ( at least the big storms ) in much of the subforum, along with fatigue at how frustrating this winter has been to date. I really will be surprised to see anything come of all this, but will be content with some mood flakes if they happen. So much has to go right even in the heart of winter that it makes the case that a good event at this time of the year is probably unlikely. But its fun to look at in the meantime; its more than we had to do all winter. Will hope for the best. Me, I've been distracted by my daughter going to Costa Rica for spring break for an ecology class, and worrying like fathers will do, while she warns me about all the deadly snakes down there. Yikes. What's an old codger to do? Hopefully some snow will distract me next week. Cheers.
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We are usually good for some meaningless piddly events in March after a dud winter. Happens every time. Enjoy any mood flakes and get the lawn mowers ready.
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Happened to catch Sam Champion this morning saying this is mostly rain for all but the interior. The important take away for me is that the guy has more and better hair than he did 30 years ago....
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Another band coming down now. Wasn't expecting that. Very nice winter scene.
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Car topper here. Maybe 2? Not bothering to measure, too minor an event. Will take a walk before it melts.
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Had just gotten married....went out with my wife and her girlfriends because they were from Colombia and really hadn't seen any snow ( my wife came here in 1990, and its true, she hadn't seen any real snow in that time; she wondered what all the fuss over winter was about ) and some kids she was babysitting. It had turned to rain but this was perfect for snowball fights and building a snowman ( ok, snow person ). Fast forward, those kids are married with kids of their own, her friend moved to Brazil, and our two kids are grown and finishing college and grad school.....so I'd say this was a really long time ago.
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I have never seen a clipper do much more than a dusting here, and often nothing comes of it. Clippers are all nowcasting as far as I'm concerned. It does get some people riled up when they hear the word snow, however.....this may be a case where Mercer sees something and Middlesex doesn't. That used to happen; people would drive in from Trenton and we'd be looking at them complaining about snow and wondering what the heck they were talking about.....
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I'm talking about my area just outside the city; over ten inches in March is very rare. Of course in your area it is different. Again, would love to see even a 3-6, 4-8 event before the curtain lowers. Anything more would be exceptional. And well, cursed by every other normal being in the area, but hey its March, if it snows nature will take care of it. Will be keeping an eye out here to see what happens; right now long range locals calling for 40s and rain. Anything can happen in March, we used to say.