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PrinceFrederickWx

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Everything posted by PrinceFrederickWx

  1. PrinceFrederickWx
    What’s your sample size for a -QBO strong Nino? How do you know either of those were the reason for the high snowfall? How do you know it wasn’t something else? I’m not trying to troll you. Just looking at this from a statistical viewpoint and trying to give you a possibly different angle. I’ve always had a problem with the bimodal distribution of ENSO (with weak Nina and moderate Nino allegedly being the best).
  2. PrinceFrederickWx
    Idk why, but the tone was much different here this season than in years past. I noticed the same stuff you did. It started back in Nov. with the “guaranteed cold” posts and ended with the “Feb. 2010 redux” debacle. The usual skepticism from years past (which was a good thing) was replaced with arrogance and outright weenie wishcasting at times.
  3. PrinceFrederickWx
    I already used my once-per-30,000 day screen name change, but I wanna change my name to “PerfectTrackRainstorm” LOL
  4. PrinceFrederickWx
    -The sample sizes for seasonal forecasts are probably too small, and correlation does not equal causation. -ENSO may be weighted too highly. -Persistence and trends are underrated as forecasting tools. -In recent years there seems to be fads of tracking esoteric indices that may be meaningless (Siberian snowcover, etc.)
  5. PrinceFrederickWx
    If any of you have any pictures of the storm that you'd like to share, I'd love to see them! I wasn't born yet in 1979 but I love reading about this storm. My mother has been through nearly every Baltimore-area HECS and still says 1979 was the craziest. She did have some pictures, but has been unable to locate them currently. If she ever finds them I will post some here. FWIW, my 95-year-old grandmother has also been through every Baltimore-area HECS... she still talks about 1979 and especially 1942.
  6. PrinceFrederickWx
    If I saw something like this here in the current subtropical wasteland of Calvert, I think my head would just explode.
  7. PrinceFrederickWx
    The field I work in has seen so many advances in machine learning / deep learning in just the last few years. I would think a lot of the recent AI advances will eventually be applied to weather forecasting (if they aren't working on this already). Once that happens I would expect to see results dramatically improve.
  8. PrinceFrederickWx
    That area from Lehigh Valley to NJ/NYC just wins over and over again. Some of those areas climo aren’t supposed to be that much better than ours either. I have an opinion on that but it involves elephants we can’t talk about lol
  9. PrinceFrederickWx
    0.1" and it's already over and melting. Roads and sidewalks never caved. I was forecast 1-3" by LWX... I'm convinced it simply cannot snow in SOMD anymore.
  10. PrinceFrederickWx
    The 1981-2010 normal had 8" of snow for BWI in February. The 1991-2020 normal has 7.5" in February. If you average the last nine Februaries you get only 1.9" now. Even if you accuse me of cherry-picking, and I do ten years to include 2014-15, I'm still only getting 3.1." If you assume next year is a La Nina (where Februaries usually suck) then this is going down even further.
  11. PrinceFrederickWx
    3/21/2018 was a WSW IMBY but not for BWI or DCA. Neither of those airports have had a WSW in February or March since 2015. There has also not been a WSW for either one in December since 2009.
  12. PrinceFrederickWx
    The main issue continues to be that the metro areas (and everywhere south and east) can no longer score significant events outside of January. Winter is now boxed into four weeks instead of four months, so the averages are going to be much, much lower as a result. (Note: I will STFU about this forever if the region somehow has a WSW this month or next.)
  13. PrinceFrederickWx
    I almost want to be the contrarian and just say next year will be the 95-96. Though I do wonder what the long range forecasts (if they even existed back then) were for that winter.
  14. PrinceFrederickWx
    With the back-to-back January storms, the errors seemed like they were just sticking a ruler in a random spot and measuring snow depth. Now I'm even more stumped. The only thing we both know is that all the State Highway measurements are probably wrong again somehow. LOL
  15. PrinceFrederickWx
    The airports could still theoretically go climo+ but it was a red flag early on for the forecasted epic winter that we weren’t on the board by mid-December. I had posted this in the Panic thread back then, but winters like 1996, 2003 and 2010 always showed themselves early. Even the epic backloaded winters like 2015 had accumulating events in November, December and early January.
  16. PrinceFrederickWx
    Just remember: we climate doomers were mocked all year on here. Now which of the two threads ended up being more accurate: this one or the long range thread? LOL
  17. PrinceFrederickWx
    Until proven otherwise, nothing has changed my view that this region can no longer get WSW events outside of January.
  18. PrinceFrederickWx
    He's gonna need a pop-up book of an elephant.
  19. PrinceFrederickWx
    My youngest is two and has a weather pop-up book he likes. He keeps opening and closing the snowflake picture over and over, saying "See snowflake! See snowflake!" This disease starts at a young age. LOL
  20. PrinceFrederickWx
    You know some of them will hold on to the bitter end. They'll be posting maps in mid-April when it's 85 degrees saying the pattern looks ripe in two weeks for a redux of April 28, 1898.
  21. PrinceFrederickWx
    So when does the 2010 pattern kick in again? By this time in 2010 I had over 50” of snow. This year I’ve had three glorified cartoppers and a week’s worth of cold.
  22. PrinceFrederickWx
    It’s mostly turned into a cult of personality around a dozen or so posters, most of whom have known each other since the dail-up era.
  23. PrinceFrederickWx
    No complaints here either, I’ve been enjoying it quite a bit! Been doing a lot of outdoor daytrips. If it’s not going to snow, sunny and warm is the next best thing.
  24. PrinceFrederickWx
    The goalposts are quietly being moved. Now it’s all the last week of February into early March. I didn’t think a dry February was even possible in a Nino?
  25. PrinceFrederickWx
    This is a bit off topic, but I keep remembering there was a massively hyped HECS that was supposed to be a few days after Christmas a few years back. The models I think had it for a very long time up until a few days before. Was that 2018?
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