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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Line looks to be getting better organized as it heads east
  2. Yup. Crazy how none of these threats dump rain in our area
  3. Areas affected...parts of the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021945Z - 022045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An intensifying cluster of thunderstorms over northeast MD and eastern PA may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon. A WW is uncertain though convective trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...As of 1940 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Over the last hour, a cluster near the MD/PA border has slowly intensified with a notable increase in lightning and reflectively. Likely supported by subtle ascent from a passing shortwave and remnant convective outflows, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely continue to support strong updraft development/maintenance. Vertical shear is quite limited with flow generally less than 25 kt. Storm intensity will likely remain tied to forward propagation along advancing outflow with this cluster. The moderate buoyancy and large water loading will likely support a isolated stronger downdrafts with low-end potential for 50-60 mph gusts. Storms should track east/northeast through the afternoon across parts of eastern PA into NJ. Storm organization appears quite limited.
  4. Models showing lots of rain chances this coming week weekend and next week. We can only hope it’s correct
  5. It’s the only way we get rain now when it’s not in the forecast.
  6. Yeah, would have thought the +2 at nyc would be higher considering the heat we have had here in central jersey
  7. Ha. That was ACY revenge winter after missing out on the epic 20-21 run
  8. Yup storms blowing up in south jersey
  9. Glad I didn’t get invested with today’s false rain threat. I’m sure Cape May will find a way to get more rain today…
  10. Agreed. We have had lots of cloudy days since the start of last week.
  11. Models are very active inside 5 days then is just disappears as we get closer. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen with Friday into the weekend
  12. We shall see what happens. Seldom do these cold/snowy or busy hurricanes season forecast ever work out
  13. 0.00 overnight are they still expecting a busy tropical hurricane season? It feels like it’s been very slow
  14. Best chance of rain looks to be Friday Night Now. The wet pattern has been a complete failure here
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