Allsnow
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Everything posted by Allsnow
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Similar to what happened in Ct?
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Rain train for CT shore wow
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Don’t see the south trajectory of that storm currently
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Yup. See no evidence of that
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Our area might get missed
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Yup
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Wow! Areas affected...northern NJ into western Long Island/NYC Metro vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489... Valid 301826Z - 302000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 continues. SUMMARY...An intense bowing segment will move across northern New Jersey into western Long Island and the New York City metro vicinity over the next 1-2 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected with these storms. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has rapidly intensified and developed into a bowing segment near the northern NJ/PA state line this afternoon. This activity will spread east/southeast over the next 1-2 hours into the axis of strong instability oriented over the northern Mid-Atlantic region. These storms have already produced gusts to near 50 kt and areas of wind damage. This activity is likely to continue producing severe/damaging wind gusts as storms spread across northern NJ and the New York City metro vicinity.
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NWS Upton still all in for this afternoon severe threat
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Parts of extreme snj got 8-10 inches of rain this morning. Crazy
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Yikes. Might not clear out in time
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Areas affected...southern New England, southern New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301744Z - 302344Z Summary...Bands of scattered thunderstorm activity were moving quickly to the east, but also merging/training locally to produce spots of 1+ inch/hr rain rates at times. These rates could cause flash flood potential to increase through the early evening. Discussion...Storms have deepened and expanded in coverage within a strongly unstable airmass across the discussion area over the past hour. The storms are aligned along and just ahead of a surface cold front across central PA/southern New York and were embedded in deep westerly flow, promoting 30-40 kt storm motions. Of particular concern, however, is the alignment of convection across Connecticut and southern New York favoring training, which has boosted rain rates into the 1-1.5 inch/hr range, threatening local FFG thresholds. Models/observations are in general agreement that storms will continue to train/expand eastward while propagating southward/eastward toward more populated locales (including New York/northern New Jersey, Providence RI, and Boston). Not only are FFGs locally lower in some of these areas, but urban/hydrophobic surface may promote a local flash flood risk especially where rain rates exceed 1 inch/hr. Flash flooding is possible given the aforementioned scenario.
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Crazy two week stretch for them. We have mainly missed out down here
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Good catch. It completely missed the storm in SNE a few days ago that caused widespread damage
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Latest HRRR hammers snj
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CT getting crushed again
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Yeah, that normally means a bust. We shall see…
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Bad day for the beach
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Mesoscale Discussion 1487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 301355Z - 301600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase in coverage/intensity through midday. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected through afternoon. One or more severe thunderstorm watches will likely be needed in the next couple of hours for portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is already in place across the region this morning, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F noted in observations. Temperatures are already in the upper 70s to low 80s, and even modest heating through broken clouds will aid in further destabilization toward midday. 12z RAOBs from ALB and OKX also indicate a strongly sheared environment, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt present. Early convection is already noted near Binghamton NY along an outflow boundary. Additional convection is developing further west across central PA ahead of an east/southeast-advancing cold front. As convection gradually increases over the next few hours, bowing segments/clusters are expected given mostly unidirectional deep-layer flow. Large instability, high PW values, and steepening low-level lapse rates amid favorable shear will support swaths of damaging winds across the region through the afternoon into early evening. One or more watches will likely be needed for the region within the next couple of hours.
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I hope the south jersey convection isn’t killing the afternoon potential for us
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Souther jersey near Cape May has been getting crushed this morning
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.41 overnight
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.20
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Light rain currently
