Allsnow
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Everything posted by Allsnow
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Yikes. Might not clear out in time
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Areas affected...southern New England, southern New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301744Z - 302344Z Summary...Bands of scattered thunderstorm activity were moving quickly to the east, but also merging/training locally to produce spots of 1+ inch/hr rain rates at times. These rates could cause flash flood potential to increase through the early evening. Discussion...Storms have deepened and expanded in coverage within a strongly unstable airmass across the discussion area over the past hour. The storms are aligned along and just ahead of a surface cold front across central PA/southern New York and were embedded in deep westerly flow, promoting 30-40 kt storm motions. Of particular concern, however, is the alignment of convection across Connecticut and southern New York favoring training, which has boosted rain rates into the 1-1.5 inch/hr range, threatening local FFG thresholds. Models/observations are in general agreement that storms will continue to train/expand eastward while propagating southward/eastward toward more populated locales (including New York/northern New Jersey, Providence RI, and Boston). Not only are FFGs locally lower in some of these areas, but urban/hydrophobic surface may promote a local flash flood risk especially where rain rates exceed 1 inch/hr. Flash flooding is possible given the aforementioned scenario.
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Crazy two week stretch for them. We have mainly missed out down here
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Good catch. It completely missed the storm in SNE a few days ago that caused widespread damage
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Latest HRRR hammers snj
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CT getting crushed again
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Yeah, that normally means a bust. We shall see…
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Bad day for the beach
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Mesoscale Discussion 1487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 301355Z - 301600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase in coverage/intensity through midday. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected through afternoon. One or more severe thunderstorm watches will likely be needed in the next couple of hours for portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is already in place across the region this morning, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F noted in observations. Temperatures are already in the upper 70s to low 80s, and even modest heating through broken clouds will aid in further destabilization toward midday. 12z RAOBs from ALB and OKX also indicate a strongly sheared environment, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt present. Early convection is already noted near Binghamton NY along an outflow boundary. Additional convection is developing further west across central PA ahead of an east/southeast-advancing cold front. As convection gradually increases over the next few hours, bowing segments/clusters are expected given mostly unidirectional deep-layer flow. Large instability, high PW values, and steepening low-level lapse rates amid favorable shear will support swaths of damaging winds across the region through the afternoon into early evening. One or more watches will likely be needed for the region within the next couple of hours.
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I hope the south jersey convection isn’t killing the afternoon potential for us
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Souther jersey near Cape May has been getting crushed this morning
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.41 overnight
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.20
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Light rain currently
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Areas affected...Southeast PA...NJ...far northern MD/DE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484... Valid 292238Z - 300015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe wind gusts from 50-65 mph will remain possible, mainly focused across southeast Pennsylvania and adjacent states. How far downstream this extends east of the Delaware Valley is uncertain, with forecast expectation of weakening farther east into New Jersey. DISCUSSION...A surging accelerated portion of a short-line segment has bowed across a part of east-central to southeast Pennsylvania. Its current eastward track will result in movement into a more weakly unstable air mass. But given its organization, a damaging wind threat will probably spread east of WW 484 into NJ before diminishing. Meanwhile, supercell structure exists within the tail-end robust updraft in south-central PA. With a plume of low 90s surface temperatures emanating north over central MD, it is plausible the lagging portion of the convective line may undergo a similar acceleration and bowing surge. This could potentially impact parts of far northern MD/DE, adjacent to WWs 482/484.
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Would think we get some rain from that line
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Game on tomorrow? KPHL is all in
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Tornado warning central Pa
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This will be the way it plays out
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Will the sun come out today?
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We need rain
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Played out as I expected. Missed the best severe weather to my north and just some straight form rain later at night .
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Don’t like the looks of the radar sw of me. Latest HRRR and guidance showing another miss to my north
