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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. I like the looks of the radar now
  2. Yeah, stuff really having a difficult time organizing. Might get its act together south of our area
  3. Yeah, idk if we get much more then that… hopefully it fills in but idk
  4. Miss potential for our small area is going up
  5. Crazy. I always find these high humidity day more interesting then what we had last weekend
  6. Northeast metro and northern Manhattan probably get hit with that NNJ storm. It’s dropping south fast
  7. Similar to what happened in Ct?
  8. Rain train for CT shore wow
  9. Don’t see the south trajectory of that storm currently
  10. Yup. See no evidence of that
  11. Our area might get missed
  12. Wow! Areas affected...northern NJ into western Long Island/NYC Metro vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489... Valid 301826Z - 302000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 continues. SUMMARY...An intense bowing segment will move across northern New Jersey into western Long Island and the New York City metro vicinity over the next 1-2 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected with these storms. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has rapidly intensified and developed into a bowing segment near the northern NJ/PA state line this afternoon. This activity will spread east/southeast over the next 1-2 hours into the axis of strong instability oriented over the northern Mid-Atlantic region. These storms have already produced gusts to near 50 kt and areas of wind damage. This activity is likely to continue producing severe/damaging wind gusts as storms spread across northern NJ and the New York City metro vicinity.
  13. NWS Upton still all in for this afternoon severe threat
  14. Parts of extreme snj got 8-10 inches of rain this morning. Crazy
  15. Yikes. Might not clear out in time
  16. Areas affected...southern New England, southern New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301744Z - 302344Z Summary...Bands of scattered thunderstorm activity were moving quickly to the east, but also merging/training locally to produce spots of 1+ inch/hr rain rates at times. These rates could cause flash flood potential to increase through the early evening. Discussion...Storms have deepened and expanded in coverage within a strongly unstable airmass across the discussion area over the past hour. The storms are aligned along and just ahead of a surface cold front across central PA/southern New York and were embedded in deep westerly flow, promoting 30-40 kt storm motions. Of particular concern, however, is the alignment of convection across Connecticut and southern New York favoring training, which has boosted rain rates into the 1-1.5 inch/hr range, threatening local FFG thresholds. Models/observations are in general agreement that storms will continue to train/expand eastward while propagating southward/eastward toward more populated locales (including New York/northern New Jersey, Providence RI, and Boston). Not only are FFGs locally lower in some of these areas, but urban/hydrophobic surface may promote a local flash flood risk especially where rain rates exceed 1 inch/hr. Flash flooding is possible given the aforementioned scenario.
  17. Crazy two week stretch for them. We have mainly missed out down here
  18. Good catch. It completely missed the storm in SNE a few days ago that caused widespread damage
  19. Latest HRRR hammers snj
  20. CT getting crushed again
  21. Yeah, that normally means a bust. We shall see…
  22. Bad day for the beach
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