Allsnow

January 2007 like. Incredible

-epo returns on the GEFS

Nice look on the GEFS for the 25th.

Well those years are historic for a reason. We can’t see into February until next week, most likely why we don’t have any hints currently All I’m saying is the pattern going forward isn’t last weekend. We will have chances with cold air around. The nino esque look has me hopeful for a typical cold snowy February.

But now we have blocking in central Canada. We don’t need a -nao to snow in nyc. We had that for the first half of December and got squat. And yes we can get cutters in any winter. January 2014 had them even during our good periods. But with this look I would favor a costal track over a cutter to Detroit. You have been around long enough to know we don’t need a great pattern in January to snow.

A very Miller b esque look on the gfs for the 25th. I hope some can step away from the ledge with that for a few hours. I know I know, it’s not December 2017 type cold

We will have opportunities coming up the next few weeks. The reshuffling was on the ensembles for the 26th but the signal is bit stronger now. By just reading this thread you would think next week La Niña is coming and we will torch again. We still have ridging our west with a split flow along with a northwest flow from Canada. The cutters are gone after Saturday but most people won’t acknowledge that because it means little for their backyard. Agree with @bluewave, the +amm is probably hurting the -epo and the scandy ridging is fading. Which it return is allowing higher hgts in central Canada. It’s still not a bad look and trust me if it looked like trash I would acknowledge it.

I agree that we are past the point where winter will be saved by some epic 2015/2005 type run. I say this because I just don’t see those cards lining up for us. That being said, we will get a storm eventually. Probably sometime in February

Sleety look just south of the metro on the nam

Didn’t 89 have a Big Mid Atlantic storm??

Incredible stuff! Thanks Don. We might see that typical backend niño February

IMO the niño look can get it done this time of year. We don’t need -10 sitting over our heads that leads to cold dry next week.

Do you think will then get more of a classic Nino February? The stj is definitely going to become more active and with are at the coldest climo part of the year. We don’t need -25 over are heads to snow in late January

The entire h5 set up is changing after the 20th. It’s not going to be consistently cold for weeks on end. We will have times where it will warm up. Today will be the last warm day for a while.

You will have colder days next week

Incorrect. Next week will be below normal. What model shows several days next week above normal?

You can get cutters in any winter. 97-98 was a strong El Niño with a very fast pac jet. We literally never had a chance at snow. This winter is nothing like that one

Yes in the southwest part of the country.

The coldest stretch of weather I have experienced was probably December 2017. I believe we were below frz for two weeks. No, it wasn’t in 1852 when we skated on ponds and Manhattan was covered in snow all winter.

You will get your fill of cold dry next week.

18z gfs has the perfect costal track for the 25th. Unfortunately, the bl is torch with the lakes low. At least the cutters will be gone after Saturday

But that doesn’t change the fact that this is a bad h5 set up for snow in nyc. Can it change back to more of a look we had a few days ago? Sure! But I wouldn’t bet on it.

To be fair the real pattern change doesn’t start until after the 20th. We are currently reshuffling the pac to a better look. If it were to snow Saturday it would be a bonus before the pac improves. The wheels of change are already in motion as tomorrow will be the last warm day for a while.

The pattern will improve after the 20th but the -epo/poleward pna has been waffling on the guidance.

Yep. We are loosing the -epo look and are left with +pna and split flow look. The reshuffle around the 25th could hurt temps around here. next week looks cold and dry