Allsnow
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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Allsnow replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Euro continuing its attack on the strat. Now is very close to a split at day 10 -
The ukmet is now on pivotal weather with all the maps.
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61.9 inches of it verified at Central Park
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Huh?
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High slides east and lakes low warms the bl. 18z Gfs
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Lots of spread in low placement, yes. But that doesn’t change the laundry list of problems that argue against snow for the metro area.
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These are the 2m anomaly along with the idv that show either a interior snow hit or late phase. If you go off the low location more then a few show a perfect track for the coast. So why doesn’t it show more hits? Imo it’s the airmass with a high sliding off the coast/lakes low/ and late phases with northern stream. We have a long list of things that point against snow for the coast. And even with some of the models that show hits it’s not 100% snow or we are depending on dynamics to overcome temps.
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I was referring to a conversation in the January thread about how this past week temps would not support snow. More specifically with the ULL yesterday.
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Furthermore, you have a high pressure sliding east that is adding insult to injury to a already awful airmass. Yes, lots to learn from your posts last weekend on how this split flow look will be cold enough for the northeast. It’s only 40 degrees in Toronto currently. How are temps in North Carolina?
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@NEG NAO @NYCweatherNOW Incorrect. Nyc gets close to .45 and has temps in the upper 30’s. The airmass is putrid
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That’s 850’s. The surface temps very iffy. 983 bombing low on a cold and snowy bias model that only gets about a inch in nyc! That should tell you a lot about the airmass.
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I don’t think this will have a sharp ridge out west to turn the corner for a inland runner. But the airmass is bleh for the coast. The eps idv are either snowy hits for the interior or sne.
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Lots of uncertainty with low location on the eps. Only consistent is snow mean is less then 1 inch for the coast. The majority of the members are inland hits.
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Continue improvements with more of a sustained cold pattern on the eps/gefs/geps for the first week of February. I’m sure many will melt when the cutter comes that brings the cold out of the west. The look between the 5th and 8th is really nice.
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It also takes longer for the euro to eject the sw energy
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Wave spacing and the vortex killing the ridge out west on the euro. This doesn’t allow the northern stream to dive in. So the southern stream has to do it all on its own in a meh airmass. The ridge is just not as sharp as we need on the euro.
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Starting to see the strat effects on the ops now for the 5-8th.
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Interior should be excited with this setup
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We look to have a good pna next week. The airmass and position of ridge will be key. A costal hugger or a apps runner isn’t a cutter. I doubt we see a cutter in this pattern.
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Getting out there in the uber long range but I like the 5th-8th timeframe. Better airmass with some blocking.
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Not a bad h5 set up but the airmass is kind of meh
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EPS Idv have some hits around the 30th to 1st. The better look is around the 5th-6th when we have a colder airmass. I would say we have a chance but better shot inland.
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Well at least we are done with the cutters now that we have Hudson Bay ridging lol
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Yes. I made a comment in the discussion thread that the pond skating in 1907 had to be horrible.
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The coldest stretch of weather I have experienced was probably December 2017. I believe we were below frz for two weeks. No, it wasn’t in 1852 when we skated on ponds and Manhattan was covered in snow all winter.
