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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. At least we can say we didn’t have high expectations this winter.
  2. Yep. 11-12 here we come? Above normal way into December
  3. We will also need to see how strong the PV gets and if any blocking up top can throw punches at it. The last few years whatever pattern has taken over at the end of December has lasted the majority of the winter.
  4. Going to get warm for a extended period of time. Enjoy it.
  5. Great post. I think February will probably be another warm one with March being more wintry
  6. My fear this month is that the -pna cools the warm pool off the west coast. That’s one of very few positives we have going for us
  7. We have had the last two November’s cold and it really hasn’t helped us. If we are going to have limited chances this winter I rather save the cold shots for when snow climo is better. We should see the epo and Ao both go negative next week. Unfortunately, we will need to wait for the pac to improve so the cold isn’t just dumping into the west. The blocking on top of the pole is a very good thing to see.
  8. Cheap thrills alert. KC vs Denver should be snowy this afternoon
  9. Ninas favor mjo phase 2-5 because of where the warm waters are. I don’t think we will get much help this year from the mjo. The one positive is how warm the waters are off the west coast. That’s not a typical strong Niña look.
  10. Yeah, 17-18 was a classic Niña winter. Cold December to early January, then the pattern flipped to warmth until a SSW brought blocking for March.
  11. Looks like we will attempt to get into phase 7 at the end of October
  12. I need this to stay weak to have a chance down here It will be nice to cool the western pac so the mjo isn’t married to P5-6
  13. Sorry. Thought I was in the other thread
  14. Models are going to nail the jersey shore and LI rain jackpot
  15. When NYC is breaking record lows you know it’s a legit airmass. This morning temp of 34 broke the old record and coldest temps since 1891 in May.
  16. The roundy plots have this going into p8 to start February then dying and convection starting in p2 (standing wave). As you posted p2 is a cold look for February. The rmm plots I think are picking up on the kelvin wave in p6. Which is why they are curling back earlier
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