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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    Yep. H5 set up has completely changed from what it was a few days ago. The trough is further west and the transient blocking is gone. Perhaps we can get something along the boundary closer to the middle of the month.
  2. Allsnow
    My storm is on life support. Sorry bud.
  3. Allsnow
    Our best shot for snow this month is if we can get the boundary south of us for a day. Just thinking back to typical Niña/nada February’s it worked in 2008/2012. Just a typical overrunning event that dumps 2-4/3-5 and by the next day it’s back to 40’s rain.
  4. Allsnow
    I agree 100%. Enso states, analogs, snow cover, and NPAC warm pools are becoming less informative on the coming winter. It’s really all about the Pv and mjo. Stuff that is very hard to predict from months in advance.
  5. Allsnow
    Yeah. With the Mjo going into p4-5-6 I think the response could be pretty warm in mid February.
  6. Allsnow
    Oh well.
  7. Allsnow
    They really have not bought into any type of cold/snowy pattern. They did a good job in sniffing out the dateline ridge in January and rna pattern for February.
  8. Allsnow
    Weeklies basically saying it’s over! We are above normal until mid March. I would welcome a early spring. Yes, we can still snow but any deep winter pattern is definitely trashed.
  9. Allsnow
    We can only hope.....
  10. Allsnow
    Eps snow mean is putrid! Good times lol
  11. Allsnow
    Okay okay.....2/15 is when the pattern flips
  12. Allsnow
    Yeah, any type of distribution now would only effect late March into April. Once the Pv coupled with the atmosphere is was over. We haven’t had any type of hits in the strat to disrupt it. In 13/14 we had a strong Pv but it was in a better position with lots of strat activity. Going forward the most important factors for winter IMO are the PV and MJO.
  13. Allsnow
    The PV gaining strength and being poorly positioned was the death sentence at the end of December. The Vortex made a late home in Ak for a big chunk of this winter
  14. Allsnow
    Just need to wait and see how things look at the end of next week. As @CoastalWx said yesterday in the medium range, ensembles will smooth things out. So you won’t see how bad the flaws will be. (Ex: Se ridge -epo position) The GEFS wants to position the pv better after the 15th . Which might allow for better cold shots in the east. Then hopefully some help from the mjo as it gets into p6/7. For a -nao chance we need the TPV out of Greenland.
  15. Allsnow
    Yep. It seems like the euro is the first to correct back to +epo in the medium range.
  16. Allsnow
    Yep. Originally the 5th-8th was supposed to be cold. Now it’s just another round of a meh airmass that we hope is cold enough. Now we kick the can to after the 9th with the epo. For whatever reason we continue to kick the can in that area.
  17. Allsnow
  18. Allsnow
    Now the 18z GEFS has a nice -epo ridge position as it’s more into eastern Alaska. This helps knock down the southeast ridge
  19. Allsnow
    Yes, and the higher hgts in the pac was more of a dateline ridge. We didn’t have a way to get the cold down into the conus during early January. With the -epo we will.
  20. Allsnow
    for after the 9th, the ens are building a -epo with a -pna/southeast ridge. On today’s eps the -epo is to far west so we would be on the other side of the gradient. This doesn’t mean no snow! We could definitely eek out a swfe/overrunning event if one of the s/w stays progressive. It’s just not a good pattern for sustained cold in the east. Now if the ensembles are off (which they could very well be) on the epo ridge position then we could be in a better spot.
  21. Allsnow
    I still like the 5-9th period for a threat of snow. Unfortunately, the strat hit has weakened and we are building lower hgts back into the ak. So it’s more of a modified airmass that’s coldest to our west. The transient blocking disappeared as well. It’s still not a horrible look and the airmass is a bit better then what we have currently.
  22. Allsnow
    Obviously convection can be hard to forecast well in advance. But @tombo82685 and I have been pretty accurate with it this winter. And let’s be honest, your track record of going against my thoughts haven’t worked out well for you.
  23. Allsnow
    The mjo won’t be weak. Look for it to gain amplitude in those phases with all that warm water stacked up.
  24. Allsnow
    Yep. And to pick the CFS rmm plot nonetheless. The same plot that had this going into high amplitude p8 a few days ago. You and I both know this is going 3-4-5-6. The weenies will always rip and read those rmm plots. The warm waters by Australia (example wild fires and heat) keep the convection there. Roundy plots are clearly into 3-4-5-6. And with the warm waters it will gain strength in 5-6. euro and gfs agree with this
  25. Allsnow
    Yeah, the only mechanism I see to get cold down here is the -epo. But if the ridge is poorly positioned it will just dump the cold into the west with the -pna.
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