Yeah, the pig made a late home in Ak at the end of December. Usually, we get some earlier signs that the vortex might be a problem in that region. With the way December started it was kind of a quick reversal.
I’m not sure about the Ao. The Pv being so strong I don’t think has a effect on it. (I could be wrong) We really needed strat hits with such a strong PV and never got them. The Ao is so positive because of strong storm by the pole I believe..... @bluewave might know more
I know we had some higher hgts in Greenland to start December. It obviously wasn’t a true -nao but helped sne score a good storm. Since then, yes it’s been MIA. The vortex near Greenland certainly doesn’t help.
This is a ridiculous post from a member that should be on a daily post limit.
The fact that you can’t give examples to your ridiculous claims makes your posts irrelevant.
Yes it did. The forcing made it into 8-1-2 but the convection firing by Australia muted the response. The roundy plots correctly predicted the 5-6 pass for this month at the end of January. It was laughed out by the usually suspects but again they were proven wrong
The eps nailed the RNA pattern for February. It did have a hiccup at the end of January when it had a cold pattern in the 11-15 day. But outside of that it’s been okay. The GEFS have been too cold in the medium range.
It’s has its flaws but has been good overall. It’s first to correct in the medium range. The lower hgts moving into Ak is no good for us and has been a theme this winter.
Roundy plots have the wave collapsing on the boarder of p6/7. Then by March 1st another wave forms in p2. Phase 2/3 are cold in March but if the Pv is still uber strong along with AO idk how the cold will get here.