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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    My thoughts are it will be transient in nature but that’s all we really need to capitalize on something. The Scandinavian ridge is really a nice precursor to a -nao.
  2. Allsnow
    I didn’t think we would be this clear a few days ago. It’s really off to the races at this point. Out and about around town It feels like a April day.
  3. Allsnow
    Do you think this change is all from the mjo? My guess is yes, I don’t see why else would be changing the pac like this. Up to 62 here now! Models did a great job with the warmth.
  4. Allsnow
    Nice call @Isotherm! Looks like the Pv will start taking shots at the end of the month
  5. Allsnow
    Hard not to excited about this look on the GEFS and eps for after the 20th. +pna/-nao/ and trough axis over Chicago. Enjoy the warmth! Things are about to change
  6. Allsnow
    Torching here under clear sky’s. Pushing 60 already here. Get out and enjoy it!
  7. Allsnow
  8. Allsnow
  9. Allsnow
    The pattern change is all a result from the mjo. We won’t see help from the nao probably not until February if at all. The Ao will be around neutral at the end of the month. This is all from the +pna and -epo The eps had some transient blocking at the end of the month.
  10. Allsnow
    The pattern gets better after the 20th. We have a chance at a snow to rain type event next weekend. After that it looks stormy with cold around. But yes, if you’re looking for a classic snowstorm it will be after the 20th. Incredible agreement right now with all the ensembles on a +pna and -epo look.
  11. Allsnow
    Winners and losers in every storm. We haven’t had it bad in middlesex county since 2009. I’ll gladly take 4-8 over getting skunked completely
  12. Allsnow
    Yep. The ridge off the west coast should keep things active and the cold/dry debbies at bay.
  13. Allsnow
    Yes, but I believe that was a bit east of the classic benchmark track. Our last east coast blizzard from DCA to Bos was back in 2016.
  14. Allsnow
    It’s been a rough winter for the models. The euro and nam seem to be too amped in the short range.
  15. Allsnow
    KU/benchmark tracks don’t grow on trees. We have been extremely lucky since 2009. Many on the coast have become spoiled With the amount of snow that have had. It’s no shock that we have regressed to the mean. The last area wide snowstorm was definitely 2016. We are obviously over due now.
  16. Allsnow
    Yeah, but that first March 2018 storm took a perfect track and still skunked the coast. We had some nice track last winter but no cold air around. With the pac improving I wouldn’t be shocked to see the track you are looking for. But to not expect mixing issues along the coast in any storm is unrealistic expectations. Edit: not implying you have unrealistic expectations
  17. Allsnow
    It’s probably been since 2016 since we have had that. Even with a perfect track, people on the coast should expect P-Type issues. How many storms can you recall that it’s snowing at High Point And Acy?
  18. Allsnow
  19. Allsnow
    Next weekend the pac is still reshuffling which is going to allow for another cutter. If we can place a nice high pressure beforehand we can get a front end thump. ( euro and gfs show this)It’s after the 18th that the pattern really improves. I wouldn’t rip and read the long range op gfs as it is going to look completely diff at 18z. I agree, you can’t have biases when it comes to weather. If the pattern going forward looked unfavorable I would be the first one the tell you.
  20. Allsnow
    Those same plots had it looping back into cod after p4 a week ago. I wouldn’t bank a forecast on those long range rmm plots. Even as is, that plot shows some members going around the horn. Either way good luck with your forecast.
  21. Allsnow
    6am Sunday! Crazy
  22. Allsnow
    Mjo progression, the warm waters by the dateline, and the amplitude of the mjo wave. I also have support from the eps,GEFS, and Geps. Other then ripping and reading the rmm plots, what hard evidence do you have?
  23. Allsnow
    And I get it, most of you won’t be convinced a colder/potentially snowier pattern is coming until your under a winter storm warning with a defo over head. I see no reason why a colder pattern won’t take over at the end of January into the first half of February. I would more then welcome a early start to spring if the mjo returns to the warm phases after a few snowstorms. until then, enjoy the record warmth! Tomorrow is going to be beautiful
  24. Allsnow
    Looks like we will spend most of the first half of February in the colder phases. Paul roundy site has us in p2 around mid February. After that it will depend on any Strat help or other factors. The euro has a bias on going cod at the end of those rmm plots. This will not be going cod p4/5.
  25. Allsnow
    This is what I am talking about when I post overrunning. You have the first cutter acting as a transient 50/50, a cold high 1032, and moisture overrunning the cold air. This is definitely the first legit threat for our area next weekend.
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