Allsnow

Yeah, the -epo was the only thing favorable on that map. I got more then half my seasonal snowfall that weekend. Unfortunately, the mid level warmth came in quicker then forecast(as always) for that Sunday night event. It quickly turned the snow to rain on the coast.

@tombo82685 stated, the wave 2 activity usually is a good indicator for cold shots. It worked very well in 2014.

Yeah, the base state was Niña so we got that response in February. -pna with troughs diving into the west coast.

Yeah. The atmosphere was more Niña like and ENSO was Niño during 2019. We really never got a true nino response in that 8-1-2 pass during February. I definitely agree that the mjo wave could go 7-cod at the end of the month. We should improve the pattern to a more of a overrunning look later in the month. As you said in your outlook, the pac isn’t going to play ball this winter. The PDO killed any hope of that. I still don’t see any strat help in the near future. Do you think it starts taking punches in February? The Scandinavian block developing might be a sign of a -nao coming in February.

Next Friday will probably be ridiculously warm for early January

Next weekend has a chance to be real nice before any rain. Friday through Sunday

Yep. That second storm in December with the transient 50/50 dug a bit to much out west and kicked up the ridge. Most of the area was between 32-34 with rain.

You can see substance developing in the warm phases on the roundy plots. Let’s hope that’s the case after we get out of p6. But it’s in the long range and convection is unpredictable

It will probably get worst before it gets better. With no strat help we will be at the mercy of the mjo. It doesn’t look like this should linger in p5 (def a worry with the warm waters there) as the rmm plots have been correcting closer to the colder phases. Until then all we can do is enjoy the warmth coming. hopefully the roundy plots are correct with this mjo getting into p7-p8 by the 20th. If not winter weather/cold will be in big trouble for February.

Good post by @bluewave regarding the warm waters by Australia. I tend to think it might want to linger in P5 because the mjo is convection and loves warm waters. One of the reasons why we spent most of December in P2 was the warm waters creating a standing wave. I believe what happens with this mjo wave will hold the fate for what happens at the end of January into February. The roundy plots and vp maps have this entering p7 by the 20th. @tombo82685 stated to me that the jma keeps this in p5 to the start of January and the CFS gets it into p8. Definitely the reason for their differences regarding the rest of this winter.

Yep. I sat at 34 the entire time with poor snow growth. This is taking a similar track with a similar airmass.

Hope all is well @BxEngine! Happy New Year!

These Miller B’s tend to favor sne and Long Island. I would not be shocked to see little to nothing around the metro with 2-3 on the island.

The problem for the coast is the fact the airmass is marginal at best and the primary low is to strong. It would be nice to see the primary weaken earlier.

It’s convection, so I wouldn’t put much stock in a rmm plot that far out. Most mjo plots don’t go out that far. The roundy has it in p7 by the 20th.

Next weekend temps couple be well into the 60’s

Hopefully the mjo having amplitude in the warm phases can help trigger some hits on the PV.

Just wanted to make a quick post about the anomalous warmth heading our way in January. Some of the analogs are starting to point to January 2007 regarding the magnitude of the warmth. I believe the reasons we have this potential is because of the strong PV and lack of a true El Niño. The following maps are the response we get in p4 and p5 of the mjo in a neutral ENSO. The eps and GEFS are in perfect sink with these responses. I can see temps in the urban corridor be well into the 60’s with this look. The storm track will be well west of our area into the Great Lakes. Going Forward I see very little change towards the end of January. I believe if we want to save February we need to start seeing strat hits on the Pv and the mjo wave, currently in p4, make it into the colder phases. If we continue to see the wave weaken into cod we very well might have a clunker winter on our hands.

Land of the misfit toys

Still pretty cloudy here and not the best of days

He is a great canidate for 5 ppd...I wish they would do it already