Allsnow

Next weekend has a chance to be real nice before any rain. Friday through Sunday

Yep. That second storm in December with the transient 50/50 dug a bit to much out west and kicked up the ridge. Most of the area was between 32-34 with rain.

You can see substance developing in the warm phases on the roundy plots. Let’s hope that’s the case after we get out of p6. But it’s in the long range and convection is unpredictable

It will probably get worst before it gets better. With no strat help we will be at the mercy of the mjo. It doesn’t look like this should linger in p5 (def a worry with the warm waters there) as the rmm plots have been correcting closer to the colder phases. Until then all we can do is enjoy the warmth coming. hopefully the roundy plots are correct with this mjo getting into p7-p8 by the 20th. If not winter weather/cold will be in big trouble for February.

Good post by @bluewave regarding the warm waters by Australia. I tend to think it might want to linger in P5 because the mjo is convection and loves warm waters. One of the reasons why we spent most of December in P2 was the warm waters creating a standing wave. I believe what happens with this mjo wave will hold the fate for what happens at the end of January into February. The roundy plots and vp maps have this entering p7 by the 20th. @tombo82685 stated to me that the jma keeps this in p5 to the start of January and the CFS gets it into p8. Definitely the reason for their differences regarding the rest of this winter.

Yep. I sat at 34 the entire time with poor snow growth. This is taking a similar track with a similar airmass.

Hope all is well @BxEngine! Happy New Year!

These Miller B’s tend to favor sne and Long Island. I would not be shocked to see little to nothing around the metro with 2-3 on the island.

The problem for the coast is the fact the airmass is marginal at best and the primary low is to strong. It would be nice to see the primary weaken earlier.

It’s convection, so I wouldn’t put much stock in a rmm plot that far out. Most mjo plots don’t go out that far. The roundy has it in p7 by the 20th.

Next weekend temps couple be well into the 60’s

Hopefully the mjo having amplitude in the warm phases can help trigger some hits on the PV.

Just wanted to make a quick post about the anomalous warmth heading our way in January. Some of the analogs are starting to point to January 2007 regarding the magnitude of the warmth. I believe the reasons we have this potential is because of the strong PV and lack of a true El Niño. The following maps are the response we get in p4 and p5 of the mjo in a neutral ENSO. The eps and GEFS are in perfect sink with these responses. I can see temps in the urban corridor be well into the 60’s with this look. The storm track will be well west of our area into the Great Lakes. Going Forward I see very little change towards the end of January. I believe if we want to save February we need to start seeing strat hits on the Pv and the mjo wave, currently in p4, make it into the colder phases. If we continue to see the wave weaken into cod we very well might have a clunker winter on our hands.

Land of the misfit toys

Still pretty cloudy here and not the best of days

He is a great canidate for 5 ppd...I wish they would do it already

We have a politics section so this keeps the "politics" out of the NYC forum

In glad you see the benefit of it and I would love to read your input on things. Unfortunately we have votes from posters that have found others homes or have a total post count of 100 that are being counted....imo they shouldn't count

Yes they are just knocking down the doors to get back

It's was a perfect storm of events Tombo was overruled on punishment with a poster, Adam wanted more science into the board and less weenies/ctblizz posters, then HM got ran out of the sne thread and nothing was done because they thought he was taking away there snow. The new board obviously lacks the amount of posts but the medium range discussion and info is amazing. I'm bias because I'm friends with Tom, but I also like this board and enjoy posting here. Unfortunately with two new boards forming one Philly centric and the other NYC it has hurt both forums on this board. Again I don't get why philly is so against a merge,its not like you guys are having all this great discussion. It's the same 4 people giving obs, if that's what you want to protect then more power to you. I think it should just be done already to help both forums create more discussion.

No offense but isn't this your first weather side post in 2 years? No being subjective here, but it's seems you found a home elsewhere and wouldn't really be affected by a change

You guys complain about lack of posts so they offer a option and the reaction is like its the worst thing in the world. Philly and NY have been together before and it was working until a few posters got greedy. Most of the main suspects have left to others boards or have been banned. We have a solid mod team now that actually does there job and wants to work to make the board better. Will there be bumps and stuff to be iron out absolutely, that's with any merger. A man once said you can achieve your greatest accomplishments when you step outside your comfort zone....