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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    Depends on where the boundary sets up. But yes, like we been seeing all winter, we would have very wet systems with cold air near by.
  2. Allsnow
    @bluewave looks like the stronger wave will help amplitude in p7 now also. As you said a few days ago, p8 by the start of February. You can also see the building substance in the warm phases which is nice to see. Substance is sinking air which won’t allow for convection development.
  3. Allsnow
    Some really nice looks on the ensembles for the end of January. I still like the 17-19th for a swfe/overrunning storm. Before that we get the torch effects of p5/6.
  4. Allsnow
    Light rain lol this winter
  5. Allsnow
    I always thought it was the RMM plots with the bias, thanks for the information. Nice call on the stronger wave in p6. Looks like we might slow down a bit in that phase and get to 7 by the end of the month.
  6. Allsnow
    You can see the RMM plots are starting to correct towards the colder phases. They have a bias cod in the long range typically.
  7. Allsnow
    I like the looks of the pattern for some type of over running event after the 17th. The cold will be just to our north with a active storm track.
  8. Allsnow
    4.5 here so far and none of it has stuck to the pavement. I have thrown out any hope of a good winter as we basically punted a month and half so far. I just hope to get to avg and have a solid 2nd half. Tropical forcing should get into the colder phases by the end of the month and the Pv should start taking some hits. Obviously is sne you guys have more room for error being further north.
  9. Allsnow
  10. Allsnow
  11. Allsnow
    18z eps snow mean.
  12. Allsnow
    The last minute trends this winter have been ridiculous
  13. Allsnow
    Snowfall this morning. Knyc 0.2 Lga 0.7 Jfk 0.3 Ewr 0.9
  14. Allsnow
    There can be a lag but it’s not 100% of the time. You won’t get high amplitude in the cold phases as it doesn’t work that way. But your colder period could very well be correct. It’s really all a guess at this point lol
  15. Allsnow
    Hopefully, we can get a p8 response. I still think we improve the pattern by the end of the month. But as you said it can’t really get much worst then this weekend lol. Even in p7 we wouldn’t be bias warm, I would think it would be more ups and downs between warm/cold.
  16. Allsnow
    Looks like on those maps the mjo is on the border of 6/7 on the 29th (which might indicate it slows down in p6) then by feb 3 P8-1? And forcing in the western pac? If I’m correct, then that matches the Vp maps well. I also like the substance forming in the warm phases.
  17. Allsnow
    Scrape for us but a nice hit for the Mid Atlantic
  18. Allsnow
    12z euro will be further northwest this run for tomorrow night
  19. Allsnow
    The roundy plots continue to show the mjo wave getting into p8. I think one of the reasons the GEFS are stuck in the Niña pattern is because of its mjo forecast. It keeps it in 6 which imo is wrong. GEFS euro
  20. Allsnow
    Nice job by the euro! Solid coating of snow here overnight
  21. Allsnow
  22. Allsnow
    It’s not going to be too dry
  23. Allsnow
    For tonight
  24. Allsnow
    I read your post to him. Great stuff. Let’s hope the Scandinavian ridge can get the wave 1 hits going.
  25. Allsnow
    I agree. Most of the time these warm ups are dirty in January. We are usually not under clear sky’s like December 2015 or January 2007.
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